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Charley Casserly: Johnny Manziel won't go in 1st round

Everything is on the table with Johnny Manziel. That's part of his appeal.

You never know what's coming from play to play or from game to game. Manziel's unpredictability works on a macro level too. He could have a career like Michael Vick, Drew Brees or Vince Young, and none of it would be particularly surprising. We certainly don't know what's going to happen to Manziel this week.

Most analysts have Manziel going in the draft's top 10. There is increased speculation lately that the St. Louis Ramsmight take Manziel, who would displace quarterback Sam Bradford. And then there is our resident NFL Media general manager, Charley Casserly, who doesn't even have Manziel going in the first round of his latest mock draft.

I sit right behind Casserly when he's in Los Angeles and know how much research goes into his mock drafts. He spends all day on the phone with executives around the league; it's not coming out of thin air.

Casserly doesn't see Manziel as a top-10 talent and that view is shared by most teams, Casserly says. That is a long-held view for many of the decision-makers. Casserly spoke with eight executives back in January. Only one of the eight believed Manziel was a top-15 talent.

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Casserly's sources simply don't see the Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars or Minnesota Vikings taking Manziel in the first round. Speaking with Around The League on Monday, Casserly felt strongly that Cleveland's staff was not interested in Manziel.

Of course, not everyone agrees. Our draft expert Daniel Jeremiah has Manziel going at No. 4 to Cleveland in his mock draft. ESPN suggested Monday they expect the Browns to take Manziel at No. 4, if he's available. This is the time of year when practically every scenario is covered. You can find a mock draft or report covering nearly any possibility, and then you can find another report disputing the fact.

Only three days left until we finally learn the truth.

The latest "Around The League Podcast" breaks down draft news and rumors and predicts headlines for the week.

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