Bucs-Bengals features NFL's two biggest wild cards in 2026; plus, three bounce-back teams

REASON TO BELIEVE: Joe Burrow gives the Bengals a chance to beat any opponent whenever he takes the field. The bodacious gunslinger has shown the football world that he is one of the elites at the game's most important position. His team's odds of winning skyrocket when the three-time Pro Bowler is healthy enough to toss dimes to Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. As a starter, Burrow sports a 43-33-1 record with a pair of AFC Championship Game starts and a Super Bowl appearance. The seventh-year pro has knocked off Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in postseason road wins, displaying the championship chops of a premier franchise quarterback. (Overall, Burrow boasts a 5-3 record against Mahomes and Allen.) With Zac Taylor granting Burrow the freedom to take control of the offense at the line of scrimmage and/or with tempo, the Bengals are a dangerous outfit with a playmaking quarterback who gives them a chance against any team on the schedule.

CAUSE FOR CONCERN: Despite significant personnel changes made to the lineup, Cincinnati's defense remains the team's biggest question mark heading into the season. With Trey Hendrickson injured for most of 2025, opposing quarterbacks patiently picked apart an overmatched secondary, turning games into track meets. Hendrickson walked to the rival Ravens in free agency, but the Bengals beefed up their defensive front via free agency (Boye Mafe, Jonathan Allen), trade (Dexter Lawrence) and the draft (second-round pick Cashius Howell). Now, second-year defensive coordinator Al Golden must find a way to generate consistent production from a mix of players at different stages of their respective football careers. Moreover, he must do so without exposing the secondary in a high-risk scheme. Considering how much explosive plays can compromise a team's chances of winning, the coordination between the pass rush and coverage could determine whether the Bengals emerge as legitimate contenders.

MY FORECAST: If Burrow stays healthy for most of the season, Cincinnati is a lock to make the playoffs. The field general brings the swagger that uplifts this team, and his efficiency and effectiveness as a big-play hunter make the Bengals' offense one of the most feared units in the league. If the aerial attack finds its rhythm early in the season and the running game quietly controls action, the Bengals have the pieces to win double-digit games -- particularly if the rebuilt defense steadily improves over the course of the season. Although Burrow's availability is critical to the Bengals' success, Taylor's squad could re-emerge as a serious Super Bowl contender by year's end.

REASON TO BELIEVE: Tampa Bay eliminated a potential distraction by signing Baker Mayfield to a three-year, $165 million extension this week. With No. 6 happy and healthy heading into the season, the Buccaneers can count on the offense to get back on track behind their feisty field general. The veteran quarterback will get into the huddle with a dynamic set of pass catchers around him. Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan give the Buccaneers a mix of big-play specialists and chain movers who will force opponents to make tough choices on how to defend a passing game that wants to push the ball downfield while operating at an efficient clip. While it appears McMillan will miss the season opener with a knee injury, that doesn't seem to be a long-term issue.

Additionally, the presence of multi-talented running backs Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell makes the checkdown game dangerous, giving Mayfield the opportunity to exploit underneath coverage with swings, screens and option routes. If the Buccaneers can find a consistent rushing game to complement their explosive aerial attack, it is going to be hard to keep Mayfield and Co. from lighting up scoreboards each week.

CAUSE FOR CONCERN: Todd Bowles' reputation as a defensive guru took a hit in 2025, as his unit failed to live up to its lofty standard. After revamping the coaching staff and retooling the lineup on that side of the ball, the Buccaneers aim to have a defense that looks more like the ones Bowles has constructed throughout his tenure as a defensive play-caller. However, Tampa Bay is counting on several rookies (OLB Rueben Bain Jr., LB Josiah Trotter and DB Keionte Scott) and free-agent additions (LB Alex Anzalone and DT A'Shawn Robinson) to mesh with a solid collection of holdovers (DTs Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey, OLB Yaya Diaby and S Antoine Winfield Jr., to name a few) to spark a defense that traditionally bombards opponents with relentless pressure from every angle.

Although the defensive makeover is expected to boost a pass rush that only produced 37 sacks a season ago -- the franchise's lowest total since 2017 -- the Buccaneers do not have a proven sack producer in the lineup. Bain could become that guy, but he's yet to take a regular-season snap in the NFL. Until the Bucs find a way to disrupt opponents on passing downs, the defense's lack of pressure and takeaways could lead to a one-sided approach to winning games that will not hold up against the league's elite teams.

MY FORECAST: Carolina snapped Tampa Bay's four-year reign atop the NFC South last season, but Buccaneers should be able to reclaim their crown in 2026. Beyond that? Well, with a nice collection of playmakers at his disposal, Mayfield has enough "take over the game" ability to give Tampa a fighting chance against the heavyweights in the NFC. If the defense rediscovers its suffocating ways under Bowles' direction, I see the Bucs earning the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC's postseason tournament, with a chance to make an unexpected run at Super Bowl LXI.

The marriage between Kevin O'Connell and Kyler Murray could produce fireworks for an offense that struggled mightily with inconsistent quarterback play in 2025. Murray is the most naturally gifted signal-caller Minnesota's offensive wizard has coached during his tenure with the team. The former No. 1 overall pick and two-time Pro Bowler gives the Vikings the possibility of a more dynamic, explosive offense with a dual-threat playmaker at the helm. Murray's speed, quickness and agility will add a dimension to Minnesota's movement-based passing game (bootlegs and roll-outs), while allowing KOC to add some read-option plays and designed quarterback runs to the call sheet.

Additionally, Murray's pinpoint passing skills from the pocket could make Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison more dangerous on crossers and digs at intermediate range. If the veteran rediscovers his touch and timing as a rhythm passer, the Vikings' offense could explode under Murray's direction.

Meanwhile, the defense should be a top-10 unit once again, with Brian Flores terrorizing opponents via exotic pressure schemes. Boasting savvy coaches on both sides of the ball, the Vikings check off a whole lot of boxes to be a playoff contender with championship aspirations.

Do not let the Chiefs' disappointing 2025 campaign overshadow the bounce-back potential of a perennial contender welcoming back a motivated two-time MVP seeking to reclaim his spot as the NFL's QB1. Patrick Mahomes' rapid recovery from a season-ending knee injury puts Kansas City right back in play. And Andy Reid can jump-start his stagnant offense with a more balanced approach that will alleviate some of the pressure on No. 15 to carry the attack as a spectacular playmaker.

The addition of running back Kenneth Walker III will force opponents to respect the Chiefs' running game or watch the Super Bowl LX MVP run roughshod on an assortment of runs between the tackles and on the edges. With offensive coordinator and run-game guru Eric Bieniemy returning to oversee a unit that is more committed to a ground-and-pound approach with a talented runner in the backfield, the Chiefs are better constructed to play complementary football this season. As defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo continues to work his magic with Cover 0 pressure schemes that produce critical stops and turnovers, Kansas City's brief hiatus from the postseason could lead to a surprise title run in 2026.

Whenever a team can combine a dynamic quarterback with a dominant defense, a championship run is possible. The Ravens have been on the precipice of a Super Bowl title for years, but a series of playoff meltdowns prevented some ultra-talented teams from advancing in the tournament. This season's Ravens might not be as loaded as some previous editions, but the pieces of the puzzle fit together nicely for a group that is primed for a run in the AFC.

Lamar Jackson enters this season with plenty to prove after an injury-marred 2025 campaign raised questions about his status as an elite quarterback. While it is hard to dispute his performance and production as Baltimore's starter since midway through the 2018 season, the two-time MVP gets a chance to reinvent his game in Declan Doyle's offense. With the 30-year-old coordinator at the controls, Lamar could showcase his ability to pick apart defenses with surgical precision from the pocket while also flashing the speed, quickness and elusiveness that once made him the most dangerous dual-threat in the game.

If the Ravens' defense quickly acclimates to Jesse Minter's scheme and standards, the stingy unit led by Kyle Hamilton, Roquan Smith and Trey Hendrickson could stack up stops and turnovers, giving Jackson and Co. the extra possessions needed to knock off the heavyweights on a deep playoff run.