Cases for/against top 10 NFL MVP candidates; plus, Week 13's risers/sliders and Week 14's best game

Why he could win: Allen is playing the best football of his career. He has 27 total touchdowns against just seven turnovers, and that’s a massive improvement for a player who was too often known for producing too many big mistakes to go along with all his big plays. Allen also is enjoying this success after the Bills traded his best receiver, Stefon Diggs, to Houston in the offseason. Every franchise hopes to find a quarterback who is so good that he can make lesser players better. Allen has done exactly that, and his game-clinching touchdown run against the formerly undefeated Chiefs in Week 11 is the kind of highlight MVP voters remember. 

Why he couldn’t: There are only two things that could stop Allen from winning this award: Lamar Jackson and/or a Buffalo meltdown. Jackson has produced pretty strong numbers in his own right and, like Allen, he is a highlight machine. The Bills also need to avoid a huge upset in the final weeks. They will only be underdogs in one more game -- at Detroit in two weeks -- so any surprise loss will undermine Allen’s hopes.

Final verdict: Allen is in great position to win his first MVP. His supporting cast isn’t as great. He’s playing at a high level. And he’s done something this season Jackson hasn’t: beat Patrick Mahomes. Allen wins this going away if Buffalo ends up with the top seed in the AFC postseason.

Why he could win: Jackson has won this award twice already, and he’s never looked as good as he does this season. He’s on pace for career highs in passing yards (4,302) and passing touchdowns (38), and he’s only thrown three interceptions thus far. Jackson also has rushed for 678 yards through 13 games. To put that into perspective, Jackson won the award last season with 3,678 passing yards, 821 rushing yards and 29 total touchdowns. It’s usually harder for players to remain in consideration for this award after winning it because they set the bar so high. Jackson keeps raising his, and he’s leading a Ravens team that has struggled on defense and special teams. Baltimore has never needed his brilliance more.

Why he couldn’t: Derrick Henry. As special as Jackson has been this season, Henry has displayed a similar brilliance. In fact, it’s fair to argue that the Ravens rebounded from an 0-2 start largely because Henry went crazy. He averaged nearly 150 rushing yards per game during a five-game win streak that had some people talking about the Ravens as the best team in football. Some voters are likely to see the Ravens’ success as the product of a dynamic duo, not a virtuoso solo act.

Final verdict: Jackson is going to make this a close race, but Sunday’s loss to Philadelphia hurts. Another concern for him is what happens when Baltimore meets Pittsburgh again on Dec. 21. Jackson is 1-4 against the Steelers and they frustrated him in an 18-16 loss on Nov. 17. If Pittsburgh has its way with Jackson and the Ravens again, it won’t matter what his overall numbers look like.  

Why he could win: Goff is the leader of the league’s best team and its most dynamic offense. He also enjoyed one of the most impressive stretches we’ve ever seen any quarterback have during a regular season. Over a six-game period, Goff completed 106 of 128 passes (82.8 percent) with 13 touchdown passes and only one interception. He set an NFL record in one of those games -- a 42-29 win over Seattle -- by completing all 18 of his passes in that contest. Goff isn’t as sexy of a name as Allen or Jackson. What he does have is an 11-1 team and an offense that has scored at least 40 points four times this season.

Why he couldn’t: Goff has never gotten the type of love other top signal-callers get in this league. He doesn’t improvise like Allen, Jackson or Mahomes, and he’s still known as the guy Sean McVay didn’t want to keep with the Rams. Goff basically faces the same challenge that Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott dealt with last season: the question about whether he’s an elite quarterback. It also doesn’t help Goff’s cause that he threw five interceptions in a win over Houston. Voters remember that stuff, too.

Final verdict: As impressive as Goff has been, he’s going to be hurt by the overall strength of his team. The Lions arguably have the best offensive line in football, a Pro Bowl wide receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown), a Pro Bowl tight end (Sam La Porta) and an spectacular tandem at running back (Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery). Add in offensive coordinator Ben Johnson -- who will be one of the hottest names when teams start looking for new head coaches in January -- and you get a quarterback who will be viewed more as a product of his environment than a superstar. Goff needs a lot of help to win this award. 

Why he could win: This has been the year of the running back, with no player at that position being more instrumental to his team’s success than this dude. Barkley has produced six 100-yard efforts in his last seven games, with 107 in Sunday’s win over Baltimore. He’s enjoyed monster games when he’s been in the spotlight, as he did in Week 12 when he generated 302 total yards (255 rushing) and two touchdowns in a Sunday night win over the Rams. Like with Henry, it’s also worth noting that Philadelphia caught fire when head coach Nick Sirianni started running his offense through Barkley. The Eagles have won eight straight games, and Barkley is now on pace for 2,124 rushing yards (which would break Eric Dickerson’s single-season league record of 2,105). Barkley has become the heartbeat of this team. There’s no question about it.

Why he couldn’t: Barkley plays the wrong position. This has become a quarterback award, and it doesn’t merely take a great season by a running back to win it. You need every other quarterback with a big name to fall apart, and that isn’t going to happen this year. 

Final verdict: Barkley looks like a lock for Offensive Player of the Year after Philadelphia’s win in Baltimore. The MVP is a long shot, at best.

Why he could win: Henry has been one of the most important free-agent acquisitions of this year. There also was a point in the first half of the campaign when he arguably was the best addition any team made -- period. His power running has taken a ton of pressure off Lamar Jackson, and he energized this team when the Ravens faltered at the start of the year. For a time, Henry was on pace for the second 2,000-yard season of his career. Like Jackson, he’s helped a flawed Baltimore team stay viable in the AFC.

Why he couldn’t: Henry has lost a ton of momentum over the past month. He’s only surpassed 100 yards once over Baltimore’s last four games. He’s also only hit the 20-carry mark one time in that stretch. It’s sensible for the Ravens to not want to overload the 30-year-old back at this stage of his career, but Henry's MVP chances have evaporated in this period.

Final verdict: Like Barkley, Henry’s chance of winning this award were always slim, given the position he plays. In fact, Henry is only on this list because of how dominant he was earlier in this season.

Why he could win: He’s fricking Patrick Mahomes. The best player on the planet is always going to be in consideration simply because of his reputation. Mahomes already has won this award twice, and he’s also picked up three Super Bowls wins in the past five seasons. Even with a second straight down year from a statistical standpoint -- Mahomes is tied for third in the league with 11 interceptions -- you still see his name appearing high on the betting odds of winning this award. 

Why he couldn’t: Mahomes had a remote shot when the Chiefs were still undefeated. He could even make some noise late if he heats up this month, as Kansas City is going to face some tough defenses in the coming weeks (Chargers, Texans, Steelers, Broncos). The problem is the shine is off the Chiefs. They have so many issues in various areas -- pass protection, pass rush, pass coverage -- that this doesn’t feel like a year when Mahomes can solve all of them simply by being magical.

Final verdict: The bar has been set too high by Mahomes for him to have a shot at this award when he’s not playing well. He probably needs to be in the 4,600-yard, 40-touchdown neighborhood to take home the hardware moving forward.

Why he could win: Hurts faced the same criticisms that Josh Allen faced: He turned the ball over too much. Hurts also has answered those knocks in the same fashion as his peer in Buffalo: by playing cleaner football and winning games. Hurts has thrown just one interception in Philadelphia’s current eight-game win streak. More importantly, he’s logged 20 total touchdowns in that stretch. Ding him all you want for those "tush push" plays, but that’s an impressive number.

Why he couldn’t: Saquon Barkley has become the dominant force in Philadelphia. As well as Hurts has been playing, there’s little question about the best player on that team over the past two months.

Final verdict: Hurts is playing much better these days, but it feels like his best chance to win an MVP came in 2022. He’s now fallen into the category that Goff, Purdy and Prescott live in: People think they’re great because of their supporting casts, not their individual ability.

Why he could win: There was a real argument to be made for Daniels in the first half of this season. The Commanders were the biggest surprise in the NFL when they won seven of their first nine games. Daniels was making sensational plays with his arm and his legs and delivering in clutch moments (like when he threw a game-clinching touchdown pass against the Bengals and completed a Hail Mary against the Bears). There also weren’t many strong quarterback candidates in the first few weeks of the season and people easily fell in love with the way Daniels emerged.

Why he couldn’t: The man has 15 touchdown passes on the season. The Commanders also have struggled offensively over the past month, as the same running game that helped Daniels early declined. Even Offensive Rookie of the Year is no longer a certainty for him, as Denver’s Bo Nix has made that race a lot more interesting in recent weeks.

Final verdict: It was always going to take a lot for Daniels to stay in the MVP race after his hot start. Once he sustained a rib injury and Washington’s offense stagnated, he was pretty much done. For a rookie to win this award, he must do jaw-dropping things all year.

Why he could win: Murray quietly has shown more growth in his game this season. He’s generally taken better care of the football (though two fourth-quarter picks in Sunday's one-point loss proved costly), produced his typical game-altering plays when his team has needed them most and displayed quality leadership in adverse situations (as he helped the Cardinals overcome double-digit fourth-quarter deficits in both San Francisco and Miami). Nobody was talking about Arizona as a serious contender in the NFC West when this season began. The Cards are just that now, largely because of the way Murray has played.

Why he couldn’t: Murray is playing more efficiently, but he hasn’t generated the typically prolific numbers required to compete for this award. On his current pace, he’s going to finish with 18 touchdown passes.

Final verdict: Murray deserves recognition here because of how the Cardinals have performed this season. That’s about all you can say in terms of this award.

Why he could win: Nobody saw Darnold coming when the season began. He was supposed to give the Vikings time to prepare first-round pick J.J. McCarthy and then move on after the season. Instead, McCarthy sustained a season-ending knee injury in training camp, and Darnold capitalized on his opportunity to show people why he was the third overall pick in the 2018 draft. The talent always has been there. What Darnold has shown in Minnesota is what he can do with real talent around him. He threw 11 touchdowns passes when the Vikings jumped out to a 5-0 start, and he’s been equally impressive the last two weeks (as he led Minnesota back from a 13-point deficit in Sunday’s win over Arizona and also played through ankle injury in a 30-27 overtime win at Chicago). This isn’t to say Darnold hasn’t dealt with his struggles, as he plateaued around midseason. It’s just that the 10-2 Vikings wouldn’t be a game out of first in the NFC North if he hadn’t taken his game to another level.

Why he couldn’t: He’s Sam Darnold. It’s been a phenomenal story, but it also feels like plenty of skeptics were waiting for his decline when the Vikings started fast. It’s hard to get into the MVP conversation when people think you’re playing over your head.

Final verdict: Darnold could’ve stayed in this conversation if he’d kept up his early pace. The reality is he didn’t.

This honor easily could go to the entire Commanders running attack, but Robinson led the team with 103 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries in Sunday’s win over Tennessee. Washington actually ran for a season-high 267 yards, which is important to note because this team needed to return to running with authority. This offense had struggled as opponents had stifled a rushing attack that had dominated earlier this season. With that run game returning and Robinson -- who hadn’t surpassed the 100-yard mark since Week 4 -- getting his groove back, things look much rosier for this squad.

It’s pretty obvious how much the Texans missed Collins when he was sidelined for five games with a hamstring injury. He had eight receptions for 119 yards in a 23-20 win over Jacksonville, and he’s critical to whatever success this team wants to have moving forward. Yes, C.J. Stroud has faced more adversity in his second season. Losing Stefon Diggs to a season-ending knee injury and Collins for more than a month certainly didn't help the young quarterback. Collins was easily leading the league in receiving yards when he went down. He makes life a lot easier for Stroud.

Tampa Bay’s rookie running back has been heating up at exactly the right time for a team eyeing a late playoff push. Irving ran for 152 yards in an overtime win over Carolina on Sunday, and he’s gained 313 rush yards over his last three games. The Buccaneers have been searching for consistent weapons to help an injury-plagued offense. Irving -- with 732 yards rushing and another 285 receiving this season -- has become exactly that.

The Falcons quarterback picked the wrong time to start slumping. Atlanta has lost three straight games, and Cousins suddenly can’t stop turning the ball over. He threw four interceptions in Sunday’s loss to the Chargers, and he has six in this losing streak. What makes it even worse is that he hasn’t tossed a touchdown pass in any of those three defeats. 

You want to know how bad Tucker is kicking? This is the second time he’s made this list, which hasn't happened to any other player. He missed a career-high three kicks (two field goals and an extra point) in Sunday’s 24-19 loss to Philadelphia, and he’s missed 10 kicks total this season (which is also the worst he’s ever performed). Tucker has been arguably the best kicker in NFL history. He now might be the Ravens’ biggest liability.

This is the second time this season that a Chiefs left tackle has landed on this list, which speaks to their issues at the position. Kansas City had hoped rookie Kingsley Suamataia was going to be the answer, but he was benched in favor of Morris. Now Morris might be looking at a permanent spot on the sidelines after struggling so much that he was benched in the fourth quarter of Friday’s win over Las Vegas. The Chiefs signed free agent D.J. Humphries recently and used left guard Joe Thuney at tackle after sitting Morris on Friday. It’s fair to think one of those two will be starting in place of Morris on Sunday night against the Chargers. 

The Lions have been the best team in football for most of this season, but they haven’t created a ton of separation in the NFC North race. They lead the Vikings by one game and the Packers by two, which is why this Thursday night matchup is so crucial. There will be plenty of offense -- as Detroit leads the league in scoring and Green Bay boasts a top-10 unit -- but the other side of the ball is likely to decide this game. Packers safety Xavier McKinney leads a defense that thrives on forcing turnovers, while the Lions love to blitz and play man coverage. Detroit won the first game, 24-14. This one should be closer.