The NFL's final four is finally set. The AFC is going to give us Patriots-Broncos in its championship game, while the NFC's title bout will feature the third installment of Rams-Seahawks. That quartet includes the three teams that tied for the most regular-season wins in the league with 14, and Los Angeles, which spent most of the season being a trendy pick to take home the Lombardi Trophy.
If you favor accomplished quarterbacks in your championship games, then you better enjoy watching the Rams' Matthew Stafford. Of the other three starting signal-callers in this round -- New England's Drake Maye, Denver's Jarrett Stidham and Seattle's Sam Darnold -- they have four playoff appearances combined. It's a different matter when we are talking about the star power of the coaches. L.A.'s Sean McVay and Denver's Sean Payton already have won Super Bowls, while New England's Mike Vrabel and Seattle's Mike Macdonald are two of the best in the business.
So, what can we expect? Plenty of defense, for one. All of these teams advanced through the Divisional Round because they had players on that side of the ball producing crucial plays at key moments. These games should also be tight, given how the Divisional Round went down. Both Denver and Los Angeles had to survive overtime, while New England had a rock fight on its hands in beating Houston.
Now for the questions that this edition of The First Read wants to address. One category involves the teams still standing and why each one can win a championship. The other category will delve into those squads that saw their seasons end this weekend and what they most need to address in the offseason. Here's what one writer thinks about both subjects …
REMAINING SUPER BOWL CONTENDERS
Why they can win it all: That defense.
Denver doesn’t have any other options left after quarterback Bo Nix broke his right ankle in overtime during the team’s 33-30 Divisional Round win over Buffalo. It’s time to dust off the same playbook that worked when this franchise won the Super Bowl a decade ago, which comes down to letting a great defense take over and doing just enough on offense to not screw things up. Head coach Sean Payton may outwardly express full faith in backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham. That’s what coaches have to do in such dire moments. The reality is Payton knows a defense that dominated in so many areas -- Denver ranked first in sacks, second in yards allowed and third in scoring D during the regular season -- is the key to every dream this team has moving forward. It’s even more encouraging that Denver has started taking the ball away recently. The Broncos forced five turnovers in that victory over Buffalo, which is amazing when considering Denver produced just 14 takeaways in the regular season. The pass rush also should be able to disrupt New England quarterback Drake Maye when these teams meet in next Sunday’s AFC championship. Maye took five sacks in a Divisional Round win over Houston on Sunday, and the Chargers took him down five times in New England’s wild-card victory. Those must be numbers that excite the Broncos because Nik Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper comprise one of the best pass-rushing duos in the league. Throw in All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II and an assortment of other difference-makers, and you have a unit that can win the AFC title game and create problems in the Super Bowl. This wasn’t how the Broncos wanted to make a run. But it’s not like they’re attempting to become the first team to win a Super Bowl with a backup starting at quarterback. It’s happened before, most recently with Nick Foles and the 2017 Eagles. This team is still good enough to pull off the same feat.
Why they can win it all: They’re the best team left. Period.
The Seahawks are riding an eight-game winning streak, but they’ve been most impressive in their last four contests. Ever since they rallied to overcome a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit in a 38-37 overtime win over the Rams in Week 16, this team has been operating with a level of confidence that is difficult to combat at this time of year. It’s noteworthy enough that the Seahawks are beating down opponents on a regular basis, including a 41-6 divisional win over the 49ers. What sets them apart is they perform as if they expect the outcome to be one-sided these days. If you discount that recent win over the Rams, Seattle has allowed just 44 points to the other teams it has faced over its last seven games. The 'Hawks also forced 15 turnovers during that stretch and averaged 28.6 points per game. Sure, you can say the Seahawks were feasting on teams like the injury-ravaged 49ers and a Panthers squad that won the NFC South with an 8-9 record. That also would be a simplistic approach. Simply watch the Seahawks play and go off what your eyes tell you. In a league where parity has rarely been this pervasive, Seattle has separated itself with every passing week. Quarterback Sam Darnold has proven he can produce in the clutch and win in the playoffs. The running game has found its groove with Kenneth Walker III generating bigger numbers. And the receiving corps is dynamic and diversified, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba being the go-to guy, Cooper Kupp providing the championship experience and Rashid Shaheed delivering the big plays. Sure, it’s fair to argue that no team is a lock in a season like this. However, these Seahawks are as close as you’re going to get to that.
Why they can win it all: Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye.
It wasn’t that long ago that the NFL spent two decades watching a brilliant head coach and an MVP-caliber quarterback do amazing things in New England. It’s possible the Patriots are poised to see a similar run unfold with Vrabel and Maye already showing what they can accomplish together. Vrabel ignited this team from the moment he arrived. You can see the way his players have bought into his leadership style, both in how they fly around the field and how consistently they pay attention to details. Few teams look more prepared than the Patriots when they take the field, which was the case once again in their 28-16 Divisional Round win over Houston. New England's defense bullied Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud throughout that contest -- intercepting him four times -- and seemed to know every move he was making before he did. Maye was having his own issues with Houston’s vaunted pass rush, but this is where Vrabel’s coaching comes in. You didn’t see Maye imploding in the same way Stroud did (and Maye committed three turnovers of his own). Maye ultimately made the plays he needed to make -- including touchdown passes to Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte that resulted from fantastic catches -- and the Patriots moved forward. Those moments should tell you how much Maye is growing up in real time. As much as he and the Patriots benefitted from a soft schedule, this team has responded to the heightened intensity of the postseason. New England will face another tough defense on the road in Denver in the AFC title game, but you know they’ll be ready for it. Vrabel knows what it’s like to coach on that stage after his time in Tennessee. He’ll have his young quarterback ready to deal with whatever comes on that day.
Why they can win it all: They have the best offense.
Every other team left in the postseason will be asking a lot of their defenses when it comes to winning a championship. The Rams will be doing the opposite. They led the NFL in the regular season with an average of 30.5 points per game. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is the leading candidate for league MVP, and he won a Super Bowl in the 2021 season with head coach Sean McVay, one of the best offensive minds in the game. As much as this team had to grind out a 20-17 overtime win in Chicago in the Divisional Round, it has been built to score points in bunches. The running game features two talented backs in Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, who combined for nearly 2,000 yards on the ground during the regular season. Puka Nacua is one of the top three wide receivers in football, while Davante Adams is a future Hall of Famer. We don’t even have to mention all the ways McVay can unleash his multiple-TE packages whenever he so chooses. The Rams will need all that firepower when they head to Seattle for the NFC title game because they know full well how vicious the Seahawks' defense can be. The two teams on the AFC side of championship weekend -- the Patriots and Broncos -- have proven to be just as problematic for opposing quarterbacks, particularly in the playoffs. But let’s also remember there was a time during the regular season when the Rams were rolling so impressively that they were a strong favorite to win it all. Even with all the problems that led to them losing the NFC West crown and a shot at the top seed, they can still ride that offense all the way to another championship.
ELIMINATED TEAMS
Top offseason priority: Fix the defense.
The irony of Chicago’s playoff loss to Los Angeles was that the Bears displayed the type of defense that could make this squad extremely scary. Dennis Allen's unit was phenomenal all season when it came to taking the ball away, leading the league with 33 forced turnovers. As for the other aspects of defense, there was not much to boast about. The Bears ranked among the worst teams when it came to total yards, passing touchdowns allowed and rush defense (they gave up 5.0 yards per carry to opposing runners). Now think about how the Bears performed against the Rams on Sunday night. They sacked Matthew Stafford four times and limited Los Angeles to just five conversions on 16 third-down attempts. The previous four teams the Bears played generated at least 384 total yards against them. The Rams finished with 340. This all tells you the potential is there for this defense to improve with some personnel upgrades and better scheming. One of the most obvious needs will be bolstering a pass rush that too often had negligible impact on opposing quarterbacks. There also will be a tough decision coming on 32-year-old safety Kevin Byard, who’s about to become a free agent after leading the league with seven interceptions. Bears general manager Ryan Poles won’t have the massive salary cap space that he used to rebuild the offensive line last offseason, so the draft is likely where Chicago will have to make its biggest impact. This franchise has invested plenty on offense over the last couple years. It’s time to get the defense right.
Top offseason priority: Figure out if C.J. Stroud really is the right man for the job.
It seemed that no quarterback in the Divisional Round could’ve been more erratic than Buffalo’s Josh Allen, as he committed four turnovers in a 33-30 overtime loss to Denver. That was before Stroud proved how silly that notion could be. Stroud threw four interceptions in the first half of his team’s 28-16 loss to New England, and that performance looked even worse than the numbers suggest. He looked so shook heading into halftime that it was worth wondering if backup Davis Mills could’ve been pressed into duty to finish that game. Stroud fortunately steadied himself in the second half -- and helped keep his team close until New England pulled away in the fourth quarter -- but that isn’t the story here. The story is that Stroud still hasn’t looked like the quarterback who exploded upon the NFL as a rookie, and it’s time to wonder if he ever will again. Yes, there are real factors that have impacted his growth, including injuries at wide receiver (Nico Collins didn’t play against New England), a limited running game (the Texans only gained 48 yards on the ground on Sunday) and offensive line woes (that were far worse last season). Stroud also just finished his third season, which means things are about to get real. It’s fair to wonder how comfortable the Texans are with bestowing a massive extension on him now that he’s eligible. He might make a huge leap in his development in the way Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence did this season. Stroud also could end up like Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa, who was benched at the end of this year. Both of those players signed huge contracts. Only one is making his team feel good about that investment. There is still time to see how Stroud fares in his fourth season, but what happened in New England is a hard meltdown to forget.
Top offseason priority: Find the right head man.
Bills owner Terry Pegula decided that it was time to fire his head coach after Sean McDermott finished his ninth season with the franchise. It was a move that shouldn't have been surprising, either. McDermott and Josh Allen had been tied to each other ever since Allen arrived in Buffalo in 2018. They also both faced more scrutiny than anybody else in this organization when its postseason stay concluded with another soul-crushing defeat. But this campaign felt like the best opportunity for this team to make a run at the Super Bowl because the regular-season schedule was soft the playoff field didn't include Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow. The Bills managed to earn one victory in Jacksonville on Wild Card Weekend, but few teams can weather five turnovers and keep advancing in the postseason. Once the Bills were eliminated, Buffalo immediately moved into an offseason where there were once again going to be debates about how far McDermott could take this team. The Patriots have turned into a power again in the AFC East, and they have the look of a team that isn't going to be a one-hit wonder. There also are a few high-profile former head coaches available on the open market for a team looking to make a change and bolster its chances of winning a championship. McDermott had been one of the more successful coaches in the league through much of his tenure in Buffalo, but the Bills never got over the hump to make a Super Bowl. That meant McDermott had reached a point where it was time to wonder if somebody else could do an even better job. We are living in a world where Super Bowl-winning coaches Mike Tomlin (who resigned from Pittsburgh) and John Harbaugh (who is now with the Giants after Baltimore fired him) are no longer with the teams they spent nearly two decades leading. If those franchises could move on, it made sense for the Bills to think change needed to happen with their own head coach.
Top offseason priority: Find more weapons for Brock Purdy.
This is another situation where it would be easy to talk defense in this space, but the 49ers figure to be fine on that side of the ball next season. They lost some key players to injury -- including linebacker Fred Warner and edge rushers Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams -- so the assumption is the defense will improve with more difference-makers back on the field. The offense is a different matter. Tight end George Kittle sustained a torn Achilles in the team’s wild-card win over Philadelphia, so his availability at the start of next season is in question. Wide receiver Jauan Jennings is an unrestricted free agent, and it also would be stunning if fellow wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is still around after his well-publicized feud with the team following his rehab from a torn ACL. That leaves wide receiver Ricky Pearsall and a few underwhelming options for Purdy to utilize right now. As great as head coach Kyle Shanahan is at calling plays and relying on lesser talents, he can only expect so much out of an offense with real roster limitations. A 41-6 Divisional Round loss to Seattle should be evidence of that. The NFC West is already home to two teams -- the 'Hawks and Rams -- that can score and get after the quarterback. Life isn’t going to get any easier in that division when next season arrives, especially if the 49ers' offense isn’t flush with talent.
