The First Read

What's at stake in the NFL playoff race in Week 18? Both No. 1 seeds, 4 division titles and more

Published: Dec 29, 2025 at 02:11 AM

Jeffri Chadiha

NFL.com Columnist

In The First Read, Jeffri Chadiha provides a snapshot of the hottest stories and trends heading into Week 18 of the 2025 NFL season, including:

Top Coach of the Year candidates
Three games worthy of NFL Pro deep dives
Most intriguing game of Week 18
Updated MVP rankings

But to kick things off, an examination of what's at stake in the final week of the regular season ...

The end is near. One more week of the NFL regular season and then everything rises to a different level. The playoffs we've been waiting for -- a postseason filled with more parity and uncertainty than we've seen in more than two decades -- is about to jump off. All that's left to do is to figure out some final pieces of business.

This latest edition of The First Read is ready to answer the remaining questions that will hover over next weekend's action. There aren't a ton of games with great significance, but the ones that do matter involve major implications. Here's what is at stake in Week 18, along with what this writer believes will happen …

No. 1 seed in the AFC

It's been a long time since there has been this much intrigue involved in the race for the No. 1 spot in the AFC playoffs. Kansas City has won it four of the last seven years, while Baltimore has done it twice and Tennessee once. Not once has the competition for that coveted honor come down to the last week of the season during that stretch, and definitely not with three teams in the running. Yet here we sit, with the Broncos, Patriots and Jaguars all dreaming about the possibility of home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first-round bye. At 13-3, the Broncos have the easiest path. All they have to do is beat the Chargers at home and it's a wrap. Of course, Los Angeles head coach Jim Harbaugh might not be in the mood to rest his starters in this contest, so it might not be that simple. The Chargers also beat the Broncos in their first meeting, so Los Angeles is plenty capable of killing the dream in Denver. The Patriots are next in line to claim the top seed if Denver loses, because all New England must do is beat Miami at home (the Pats lose the tiebreaker to Denver). Finally, Jacksonville has the toughest task. The Jaguars need to beat the Titans at home and hope both Denver and New England lose. In a normal year, it wouldn't be wise to think all that will happen. This also hasn't been anything close to a normal year, so the Jags should have some optimism. This obviously is a lot to digest, but it feels like Denver isn't going to blow this shot. Head coach Sean Payton finds a way to get his team across the finish line.

No. 1 seed in the NFC

The fight for the top seed in the NFC isn't nearly as complex as the situation in the AFC because it comes down to what happens in the NFC West. Seattle is sitting in the best position with a 13-3 record and a one game lead over San Francisco. Those teams will meet Saturday for what amounts to a winner-take-all setup. The Rams still had an outside shot when Week 17 began, but that door officially closed when the 49ers beat the Bears on Sunday night. The Niners also have a victory over the Seahawks already but that was back in Week 1, when San Francisco wasn't riddled with all the injuries that have once again plagued this franchise. Even playing the game in San Francisco shouldn't matter here. The Seahawks secured a huge win over the Rams in Week 16. They'll do the same against the 49ers in the season finale.

AFC North title

Pittsburgh could've claimed the division title with a victory over the lousy Browns, but that didn’t happen. Baltimore has been hoping for one last shot at turning around a season that began with a 1-5 start, but this is a team that has dropped three of its last five games. So now we get to see a potential cage match involving two franchises that really don't like each other: Ravens at Steelers in the final game of the regular season on Sunday night. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson sustained a back injury in a Week 16 loss to New England and was sidelined this past weekend. Baltimore beat Green Bay on Saturday night thanks to a 216-yard, four-touchdown effort by running back Derrick Henry, but it's hard to see the Ravens winning the season finale without their star signal-caller (who reportedly is trying to make it back for that contest). The Steelers have their own problems after losing to a Cleveland team that now has four wins on the year. Sometimes, Pittsburgh looks like it's figuring out how to be a viable team -- like when it won three straight games heading into Week 17. And then the Steelers have days -- like Sunday -- when you wonder how this team is still in the running for a playoff spot. It's fair to say both of these teams wouldn't be thinking about playing football in January if it weren't for this weak division. Since they are, it's best to go with the Ravens. They proved they can win without Jackson, and the suspension of wide receiver DK Metcalf looks like a major problem for the Steelers.

AFC South title

Jacksonville and Houston are two of the hottest teams in football. The Texans have an eight-game win streak. The Jaguars have notched seven consecutive victories of their own, including a 14-point road win in Denver that was one of the most impressive efforts by anybody this season. They obviously both have strong cases for winning this division -- and both teams already have clinched playoff spots -- but Jacksonville is in better shape. The Jaguars have been good all season, as they came into Week 17 with an offense and a defense that both ranked in the top 10 in the league in scoring. They also just need to beat the three-win Titans to take the crown. Houston feels like the scarier team because of a defense that has been dominant all year. The Texans excel at limiting yards and points, and they also happen to be the last team to beat the Jaguars this season. Houston will be at home against Indianapolis on Sunday, but it needs a win and Jacksonville loss to win a third straight division title. Given how well Jacksonville has been playing, that's really too much to ask for at this point. The Jaguars aren't blowing this opportunity now.

NFC South title

If it felt like nobody wanted to run away with the AFC North, then imagine what it's like to assess the recent happenings in this division. It wasn't that long ago that Tampa Bay was impressing with its ability to overcome massive injuries and win games with last-minute theatrics. The Buccaneers were so fun to watch that quarterback Baker Mayfield was an early favorite to make a run at league MVP. After losing to Miami on Sunday, the Bucs now have dropped four straight games and seven of their last eight. The only reason Tampa Bay has any real optimism is that Carolina has fumbled its own chances to put this division away. There is no shame in losing to the Seahawks (as the Panthers did on Sunday). But the lowly Saints swept Carolina this season, including a 20-17 result in Week 15. If the Panthers had won either of those games, they already would be holding the crown. I still lean toward Carolina, even with the Panthers traveling to Tampa for Saturday's de facto NFC South title game, but this one will be close.

NFC West title

This already has been discussed. The 49ers' defensive struggles against Chicago on Sunday Night Football are one more reason to think Seattle has the edge in Saturday night's season finale.

No. 1 overall pick in 2026 NFL Draft

The only positive in the Raiders' 34-10 loss to the Giants was the advantage that could come in April. The Raiders now have a firm grasp on the top pick for next year's draft, as their defeat dropped them to 2-14. The key for Las Vegas is not to do something in the season finale against Kansas City that would end up blowing this benefit. The Chiefs will be starting a third-string quarterback (Chris Oladokun) along with an assortment of backups, so this isn't a given for the Raiders. As spirited an effort as Kansas City gave in a Christmas Day loss to Denver, the Chiefs also could be thinking about securing the best possible draft pick they can gain after their own nightmarish season. The Giants might be hoping for one last shot at that top selection -- they sit alongside the Jets, Titans and Cardinals with matching 3-13 records -- but it feels like the Raiders are committed to finishing what they started.

COACH OF THE YEAR RACE

With the final weekend of the 2025 campaign on the horizon, the Coach of the Year race is one of the most competitive among this season's year-end awards. Here is a special ranking of my top five candidates entering Week 18 (with DraftKings odds as of 2 a.m. ET on Monday, Dec. 29):

Rank

Kyle Shanahan

San Francisco 49ers · +200

Coaches as accomplished as Shanahan -- he has taken this franchise to two Super Bowls and four NFC Championship Games -- usually have a hard time winning this award. But this year reminded us of just how talented he is. The 49ers were due for a rebound after injuries played a major role in their 6-11 finish last season. What sets Shanahan apart is the way he turned this team into a contender after health woes once again played a huge role in its storyline. This team should be thinking about what to do with another high draft pick after losing stars like edge rusher Nick Bosa (torn ACL), linebacker Fred Warner (fractured and dislocated ankle), quarterback Brock Purdy (who missed eight games with turf toe) and tight end George Kittle (who’s missed six games because of a hamstring injury and, more recently, a sprained ankle). And those are just the biggest names who’ve gone down for this team in an injury-riddled season. Shanahan has managed to win games by relying on journeyman quarterback Mac Jones and a defense that struggles to pressure opposing passers. More importantly, Shanahan has done this while competing in a division with the Rams and Seahawks, both of whom are strong threats to win the Super Bowl. Other coaches on this list have turned around losing franchises. Shanahan, on the other hand, gave us more evidence as to why the 49ers have been so strong under his watch.

Rank

Liam Coen

Jacksonville Jaguars · +1200

The Jaguars weren’t supposed to be this good this fast. Hell, they weren’t even supposed to be this good. That speaks to the job Coen has done in his first season leading a franchise that thought a huge key to its success would be the blockbuster draft-day trade that landed wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter, who had season-ending knee surgery in early November. Coen deserves credit for helping quarterback Trevor Lawrence blossom into the force that most people thought Lawrence would become years ago. Coen also hired defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile, who’s turned one of the league’s worst defenses into a top-10 unit. Coen has created a fearlessness in this squad that is palpable. The Jaguars went into Denver in Week 16 and left with a 34-20 win against a Broncos defense that has been elite all year. The Jaguars are contending for the AFC South title, and the Super Bowl is certainly within reach, all because Coen was the right man for the job.

Rank

Mike Vrabel

New England Patriots · -130

New England’s surprising turnaround brings up a question that should’ve been asked all year: How the hell did Vrabel not end up with a coaching job last year? It’s worth wondering if he wasn’t excited about any of the 2024 openings, but his work with the Patriots has reinforced his reputation as one of the best in the business. New England wanted quarterback Drake Maye to continue growing, and he turned into a top MVP candidate. The defense improved, as well, and the special teams blossomed into a force. Sure, the Patriots benefitted from a last-place schedule (which is the only reason Vrabel doesn’t rank higher on this list). They also ended Buffalo’s five-year run as AFC East champions and ripped off a 10-game win streak earlier this year. Anybody who saw this team play last season can see how much Vrabel means. He transformed this squad into a winner the minute he stepped into the building.

Rank

Ben Johnson

Chicago Bears · +6000

There was a lot of hype around Johnson when the Bears hired him, and he’s lived up to most of it. The same team that won five games and completely imploded in 2024 now has its first NFC North title in seven years. Johnson has instilled resilience (this team has won six games after trailing in the final two minutes of regulation) and toughness (Chicago boasts a top-three rushing attack), while helping second-year quarterback Caleb Williams develop as a clutch performer. There is still plenty of work to be done here -- Williams must become more consistent and the defense needs more than takeaways to be considered productive -- but you’d be hard-pressed to find too many people who picked this team to win a division as tough as the NFC North in Johnson’s first season.

Rank

Mike Macdonald

Seattle Seahawks · +700

In fairness to Macdonald, he would’ve been higher in this discussion if the season ended a month ago. He’s done a fantastic job of molding Seattle into a legitimate championship contender, as that defense has been downright nasty all year while quarterback Sam Darnold has proven that his success in Minnesota last season wasn’t a fluke. Macdonald also has his team riding a six-game winning streak and poised to win the NFC West. The problem is optics. Seattle finished 10-7 in Macdonald’s first season and barely missed the playoffs. So, it isn't like this was a lousy team that has shocked everyone by making it to its current 13-3 record. The field also has passed Macdonald in obvious ways. Shanahan’s success with that beaten-up team in San Francisco hurts. Coen’s ability to bring credibility to the Jaguars matters, too, as do the turnaround jobs that Vrabel and Johnson have executed with their franchises. Macdonald has been masterful. It’s just that other coaches have done more with less.

WORTHY OF NFL PRO DEEP DIVES

49ers over Bears. A shootout erupts on Sunday Night Football with Caleb Williams nearly pulling off another fourth-quarter miracle.
Eagles over Bills. A failed two-point conversion by quarterback Josh Allen keeps Buffalo from rallying from a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit.
Jaguars over Colts. Jacksonville pulls away in the fourth quarter thanks to two Cam Little field goals.

MOST INTRIGUING GAME OF WEEK 18

Baltimore Ravens

8-8

Pittsburgh Steelers

9-7

You knew it was never going to be easy with these two bitter rivals. Given that only one of these squads will be playing in the postseason, this contest -- the final game of the NFL's regular season -- should be as nasty as it gets.

MVP WATCH

A simple ranking of the top five candidates, which will be updated weekly, depending on performance. Here is how it stands heading into Week 18 (with DraftKings odds as of 2 a.m. ET on Monday, Dec. 29):

Rank