NFL franchises use contextualized data to create competitive advantages. In order to realize an edge, teams need to employ the right data in the right way at the right time. This means distilling, interpreting and applying only the most influential data in a framework that accounts for personnel, opponents and evolving game situations. My goal is to be your analytics department. Each week this season, I want to work for you by giving you a peek into which numbers flag in my models as the most impactful ... or the most misunderstood.
At the midpoint of this season, it's time for some readjusted win totals, with accompanying notes about the rest of the season for each team.
As always, let me know if your eye test is picking up on something interesting, or if there's a stat/trend you'd like me to take a deeper look at. You can hit me on Twitter @CFrelund. As with any great analytics department, the more collaborative this is, the more value we can create.
AFC WIN TOTALS
Current record: 8-1
Additional wins projected: 5.3
The Chiefs earn the expanded playoff field's one and only AFC bye in 22.2 percent of simulations, the best in the division by 0.4 percent. The Chiefs only have two remaining games with a win projection below 70 percent: Week 12 at Tampa Bay, Week 15 at New Orleans.
Current record: 8-0
Additional wins projected: 5.2
Boasting the second-lowest opponent passer rating (79.7), the Steelers' defense has driven the most win shares (5.6) of any D so far this season. Week 12's matchup with the Ravens -- in Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving night -- obviously carries major implications for playoff seeding.
Current record: 6-2
Additional wins projected: 6
Apart from a Week 12 tilt in Pittsburgh, the Ravens have a win projection greater than 58 percent in each of their remaining games. They also forecast to end the season in the top 20 in passing yards per game. (At the moment, Lamar Jackson and Co. rank just 31st at 176.9.) With the No. 1 scoring defense and second-ranked third-down D, Baltimore will have the opportunity to build off its run game on offense in the coming weeks, potentially heating up the passing game -- see: more big passing plays -- just in time for the postseason.
Current record: 7-2
Additional wins projected: 4.1
Week 10 (this week!) is an important test for the Bills: After a big home win against the Seahawks, they head to Arizona to face Kyler Murray and Co. Buffalo's had some inconsistent performances, especially on defense. With upcoming opponents who employ up-and-coming styles (Cardinals, Chargers, Broncos, Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa), as well as a prime-time showdown with the Steelers in Week 14, the Bills will reveal their ultimate potential in the coming weeks.
Current record: 6-2
Additional wins projected: 4.4
With the worst third-down defense in the league and a remaining schedule that features road games against the Ravens and Packers, as well as both contests vs. the Colts, the Titans predictably have the most dramatic spread for win projections left of any team within striking distance of making the playoffs. What do I mean? Well, because some games are projected to go Tennessee's way in over 70 percent of simulations (for example, at Jacksonville) and others are down to as low as 36.5 percent (at Green Bay), if the Titans win some low-probability games -- or lose some high-probability ones -- their win total could significantly swing. Right now, the range is 9.0-11.3 wins.
Current record: 5-3
Additional wins projected: 4.2
Turnovers. That's what will most likely determine when Las Vegas' season ends. While it's obviously true that turnovers are a huge factor for every team in every game, the Raiders' defense is tied for the fewest takeaways (five), while Derek Carr is tied for the league lead in fumbles (eight) and paces the NFL in fumbles lost (five). Las Vegas' offense ranks second-best on third down, which is a very positive indicator, but the Raiders have a minus-17 point differential in the fourth quarter. The Raiders' schedule should give them a chance to correct some of these non-complementary traits, as they face teams that are under .500 in three of their next four games.
Current record: 5-3
Additional wins projected: 4.1
My model currently projects Miami to win each of its next four games, with two of them featuring juicy rookie QB showdowns against the Chargers' Justin Herbert and Bengals' Joe Burrow. Miami's defense ranks fourth on third down and is tied for fourth in takeaways. This anchor provides time and opportunity for Tua Tagovailoa to develop. Should the Dolphins win three of the next four, their Week 16 trip to Las Vegas could very well be a regular-season playoff game.
Current record: 5-3
Additional wins projected: 4.03
If the Colts can split with the Titans (both juicy divisional bouts remain) and beat either Green Bay (at home) or Pittsburgh (away), then the postseason will very likely become a reality. With a defense that's allowing the lowest passer rating in the league (78.5), Tennessee can challenge Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger.
Current record: 5-3
Additional wins projected: 3.97
With Nick Chubb returning and increased health on defense, the Browns have more upside than the Colts and Raiders ... but they also have a lower floor. With the Titans, Ravens and Steelers still on the schedule, Cleveland must take care of business against the Jags, Giants and Jets.
Current record: 3-5
Additional wins projected: 3.8
The ceiling is certainly there for the Pats to make it to the playoffs, but with many negative indicators -- such as only two passing touchdowns from Cam Newton this season, along with a slew of injuries -- it only happens in 16.6 percent of simulations.
Current record: 3-5
Additional wins projected: 3
The Broncos' path to the playoffs would entail a number of upsets. More likely, they'll play the role of spoiler, shaping the playoff picture from the outside looking in. With both games remaining against Las Vegas, they could end up knocking the Raiders out of the playoffs. A Week 11 win over Miami could help burst the Dolphins' playoff bubble, while a Week 15 upset of Buffalo could change seeding for the Bills.
Current record: 2-6
Additional wins projected: 3.6
This may not look like the most impressive team number, but Justin Herbert's impact, as measured by win-share average right now, would equal 4.5 wins for the season -- that would've been the eighth-biggest individual figure in 2019.
Current record: 2-6
Additional wins projected: 3.4
Despite all of the challenges around him, Deshaun Watson currently boasts the sixth-highest win share among all players.
Current record: 2-5-1
Additional wins projected: 3.3
Remember how I said in the Chargers blurb that Justin Herbert's current win-share average -- if projected over an entire season -- would have ranked eighth in 2019? Joe Burrow's current figure would've ranked seventh, at 4.54 wins.
Current record: 1-7
Additional wins projected: 1.8
Telling tidbit: The Jags have deployed the most different combinations of players on defense in the NFL this season.
Current record: 0-9
Additional wins projected: 1.7
Marcus Maye's win share ranks fifth among all safeties this season.
NFC WIN TOTALS
Current record: 6-2
Additional wins projected: 5.6
My model currently favors the Packers in each of their remaining games, suggesting that they hold the strongest position in the NFC when it comes to determining postseason placement. One area of caution: With a defense that allows the fourth-most yards per play on first down (5.58) and has the third-fewest takeaways (six), Green Bay's less built to come from behind than it might seem. And by "might seem," I mean because they have Aaron Rodgers.
Current record: 6-2
Additional wins projected: 5.2
OK, let's get this out of the way: The defense has allowed 2,897 passing yards in eight games. That figure, which averages out to 362.1 per game, is absolutely staggering. It's more than the 2013 Seahawks yielded (2,752) over the course of the entire season! Despite having a favorable remaining schedule, Seattle definitely does not have the division title wrapped up at this point. Yes, Russell Wilson is incredible. Yes, the Seahawks average the most yards per play on early downs (6.83 across all first- and second-down plays). But the defense will have to improve if Seattle wants to win the West. Let me be clear: The 'Hawks will be playing in January, but how they'll get there remains to be seen.
Current record: 6-2
Additional wins projected: 5.1
In Week 15, the Saints host the Chiefs in what could amount to a Super Bowl preview. Or, at very least, could help solidify the winner as the team that receives its conference's lone bye.
Current record: 6-3
Additional wins projected: 4.6
Of teams with at least five wins, the Bucs are the least effective at earning first downs when they use motion ahead of the snap. This season, teams that have used motion on at least 15 percent of snaps are averaging about two more earned first downs per game. That maybe doesn't sound like a lot, but if winning teams average about 25 first downs, it's nearly 10 percent. I bring that tidbit up because it could be an adjustment to watch for.
Current record: 5-3
Additional wins projected: 4.2
Seeing how the Cardinals still have two games against the Rams and one each against the Seahawks and 49ers, the NFC West is clearly still up for grabs. The Kyler Murray-led offense is tied for sixth when it comes to yards per play on first down (6.18). Keeping this average high is a huge key to this offense, as it amplifies the effects of Murray's mobility and DeAndre Hopkins' catch radius.
Current record: 5-3
Additional wins projected: 3.9
The NFC West remains hotly contested. (Have I hammered that home hard enough yet?!) The Rams still have both games left against the Seahawks and Cardinals, as well as one vs. the Niners. And a Week 11 trip to Tampa Bay -- on Monday Night Football -- will give us a good idea of where this team stands.
Current record: 5-4
Additional wins projected: 3.3
The best third-down defense in the league? Chicago! The Bears make the playoffs in 51.6 percent of simulations. A win against the Vikings this coming Monday would shift that to 54.9 percent.
Current record: 3-4-1
Additional wins projected: 4.2
The Eagles make the postseason in 65.1 percent of simulations by winning the division. My model flags their Week 11 trip to Cleveland as a good test of their potential. No QB has been sacked more than Carson Wentz. No defender has more sacks than Myles Garrett. But with improved health in the receiving corps, the Eagles should be able to take advantage of the Browns' vulnerabilities in the defensive backfield.
Current record: 4-5
Additional wins projected: 3.1
Apparently, the injury bug is hell bent on guaranteeing San Francisco's Super Bowl hangover. The amount of player salary currently on the 49ers' injured reserve could fund a second gold rush.
Current record: 3-5
Additional wins projected: 4
My model projects Chicago to successfully defend its home field against Minnesota this coming Monday night, but after that, the Vikings have three very winnable home games. January football? Still not out of the question.
Current record: 3-5
Additional wins projected: 3.8
The Lions must make their move in the next four weeks (vs. Washington, at Carolina, vs. Houston, at Chicago), because it's a gauntlet over the final four weeks of the season (vs. Green Bay, at Tennessee, vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Minnesota). With the most rushing touchdowns allowed (13) and the fewest quarterback hits (32), Detroit is struggling against the run and pass.
Current record: 3-6
Additional wins projected: 3.3
Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady could be hired as a head coach before some of the other teams in this division are done playing this season. If teams were stocks, I would be long on Carolina. With Matt Rhule at the helm, the Panthers project to become relevant fast.
Current record: 3-6
Additional wins projected: 2.6
Atlanta still has two meetings with the Saints and Bucs, as well as a Week 16 trip to Kansas City.
Current record: 2-6
Additional wins projected: 3.1
The league's No. 1 passing defense is not one to play your skill players against in fantasy -- and in real life, it provides a great foundation for the future.
Current record: 2-7
Additional wins projected: 2.7
The Giants' win projections have crept up closer to 50 percent based on favorable production. This team isn't as far from relevance as you might think.
Current record: 2-7
Additional wins projected: 2.3
The main driver for this low total is the Cowboys' defense. Consequently, my models suggest using this potentially favorable draft slot to address that side of the ball.
Follow Cynthia Frelund on Twitter @cfrelund.
