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Fantasy football tiers: Quarterbacks

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When I hear the word "tiers" I don't think about fantasy football ... I think about the old '80s Kiss song Tears are Falling. It wasn't even the makeup Kiss, either, it was the hairband version with all the pastel colors. Alright, I get it. Wrong word ... it's "tier" not "tear" -- but whatever. Anyways let's get back to 2019, and lots of fantasy fans are using tiers to determine the value of their players.

Ultimately, tiers sort players based on their projected level of production and ADP (average draft position). Using tiers assists fantasy owners in knowing where there's a potential decline in value among a position group, thus allowing owners to make a more educated decision on whether or not to draft a position based on who's been picked and who's still on the board. Tiers are useful for all sorts of fantasy drafts, and you can adjust them as needed to suit your league and scoring system.

Here are my own person quarterback tiers, which I will be updating (as needed) right up until the start of the regular season:

Tier One - Rollin' With Mahomies


Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Notes: There's only one here, folks. Mahomes is coming off the best fantasy season any quarterback has ever had. Like ever. He's also the safest bet to return a minimum of top-three production in 2019, even if regression in the touchdown department is somewhat guaranteed. He's coming off the board in the fourth round in most industry leagues, but he's likely to go much higher in home leagues in 2019.

Tier Two - Elite Options


Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Notes: Watson has averaged over 21 fantasy points per game in the NFL, and he's going to be leaned on a ton once again. If Will Fuller can avoid injuries and Keke Coutee can take the next step, Watson could push Mahomes at the top. Even in what was considered a down year but his standards, Rodgers still ranked sixth at the position in 2018 ... and now all of his young wideouts have a full season of NFL experience under their belts. I'd project him to come off the board in the sixth or seventh round.

Tier Three - Star Studded


Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles

Notes: Mayfield is the most popular breakout candidate in fantasy football among quarterbacks after the Browns added Odell Beckham Jr. in the offseason. The ceiling is high, especially after the number he put up under new head coach Freddie Kitchens a season ago. Ryan was a fantasy star a season ago, and he's had past statistical success under his "new" offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. Wentz could be a great bargain as long as he avoids injuries, as the Eagles added DeSean Jackson and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside to the pass attack during the offseason. His ADP has moved up into Round 7-8.

Tier Four - Value Picks


Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Notes: I love Murray. Love love love. My inner wild fantasy child wants to rank him higher, but the experienced owner in me thinks this is a good spot. Goff should thrive again in what will remain an explosive Rams offense. Newton is coming off shoulder surgery, and he didn't run as much a season ago. Still, he could end up being a strong bargain in a best-case scenario. Wilson can be inconsistent at times (most notably in the first half of the season), but he's still very efficient and should continue to post strong totals in the Seahawks run-based offense. Brees isn't elite anymore, but he can still give you 30-plus touchdowns.

Tier Five - Late-Round Targets


Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Notes: Prescott was a better fantasy quarterback after the Cowboys traded for Amari Cooper, and now he'll have an entire training camp to make their rapport even greater. Jackson, a running back in a quarterback's body, should do great things in the fantasy stat sheets. He's a breakout candidate. Brady won't be an elite fantasy quarterback like he's been in the past, but he can still be a useful asset as a late-round addition. Winston could have his best season under the watchful eye of new head coach Bruce Arians (no, seriously). I'd take a chance on him in the late rounds as a No. 2 quarterback.

Tier Six - Oldies But ... Goodies?


Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

Notes: Rivers will come cheap in re-drafts and he's a good bet to throw for 30-plus touchdowns. It's crazy to think that Big Ben is ranked so low, but losing Antonio Brown is going to diminish his statistical ceiling. We already started to see the decline in fantasy value with Brady, who ranked as the QB14 a season ago. Cousins isn't an "oldie" in terms of his age, but he could be a very nice bargain pick.

Tier Seven - For Those About To Rock


Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
Sam Darnold, New York Jets

Notes: All of these quarterbacks could rock your fantasy world, but none of them come at a high cost in raditional drafts. Trubisky showed flashes of fantasy potential a season ago, and Allen displayed his dual-threat skill set in the second half. Both signal-callers will also have new weapons at their disposal. Garoppolo looks like a go for training camp following last year's ACL tear, and the Niners offense could surprise in 2019. Darnold started to put things together at the end of his rookie campaign, and the Jets added playmakers like Le'Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder to his arsenal in the offseason.

Tier Eight - Super Flexers


Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
Nick Foles, Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis Colts
Joe Flacco, Denver Broncos
Eli Manning, New York Giants
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins
Case Keenum, Washington Redskins

Notes: Carr has the most potential in this group after the Raiders added Brown, Tyrell Williams, and Josh Jacobs, but he still holds a 14th round ADP on Fantasy Football Calculator. Mariota, Stafford, and Dalton are all barely draftable in standard leagues, but all three are QB2s in super flex leagues. Brissett is now on the board after Andrew Luck's retirement, but he's only a deep No. 2 quarterback option in most leagues. Haskins/Case Keenum, Fitzpatrick/Josh Rosen, Flacco/Drew Lock and Manning/Daniel Jones will all be waiver fodder in re-drafts with value in two quarterback leagues alone.


Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram for the latest fantasy football news and analysis!

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