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NFL fantasy football: QB rankings based on schedule

The National Football League has a strength of schedule formula that's simple to understand -- take the opponent's records from the previous season, add up the wins and losses and calculate a percentage. My fantasy points allowed (FPA) rating is similar. It uses statistics (fantasy points) surrendered by opponents the previous year against a single position both at home and on the road instead of team records. For example, the New Orleans Saints surrendered an average of 23.46 fantasy points per home game to quarterbacks in 2012. As a result, any signal-caller that faces them at the Superdome is rewarded 23.46 points. The bigger the point total, the easier the schedule.

These ratings are not to be confused with player rankings and are not the be-all, end-all in determining a player's stock. However, owners should use them when picking between players with similar value and looking for potential sleepers.

1. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (16.87 points):
Home: New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams
Away: New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, New Orleans Saints
2013 Outlook: Romo (8th in 2012) finished among the top-10 players based on fantasy points last season, and a favorable schedule based on FPA could turn him into a tremendous draft bargain in 2013. The veteran will play in 11 games against opponents that allowed 16-plus fantasy points per game to opposing signal-callers last season, including the Saints, Chiefs, Eagles (2) and Vikings. Despite his reputation as not being "clutch," Romo remains a solid fantasy draft acquisition.

T-2. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins (16.51 points):
Home: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers
Away: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Atlanta Falcons
2013 Outlook: Griffin III (5th) was one of the elite players in fantasy football as a rookie, but a late-season knee injury that required a major reconstructive procedure has his value in some question. On a positive note, the versatile RG3 has 10 games against teams that allowed 16-plus fantasy points to opposing field generals last season. If he is cleared to open the regular season on time, it will be very tough to pass on Griffin III if he slides in seasonal fantasy football drafts.

T-2. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs (16.51 points):
Home: Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Cleveland Browns
Away: Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Buffalo Bills
2013 Outlook: Smith (29th) is coming off a forgettable season that saw him lose his starting job to Colin Kaepernick, but his stock has risen after being traded to the Chiefs. His upcoming schedule includes 10 contests against teams that allowed an average of 16-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2012. The veteran will also have a new coach who loves to throw the football in Andy Reid, so Smith will be worth a late-round look as a No. 2 option or matchup-based starter in most leagues.

4. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos (16.50 points):
Home: Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Baltimore Ravens
Away: Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, New England Patriots
2013 Outlook: Manning (6th) made a successful return from multiple neck surgeries, throwing for 4,659 yards and 37 touchdown passes while scoring over 300 fantasy points. His success has a very good chance to continue in 2013 based on a schedule that includes 11 games against teams that allowed 16-plus fantasy points to opposing signal-callers last season. Even at the age of 37, Manning is still going to be one of the first five or six quarterbacks selected in most formats.

5. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (16.46 points):
Home: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals
Away: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Miami Dolphins
2013 Outlook: Rivers (21st) is coming off another poor statistical season and has quickly gone from an elite fantasy quarterback to a reserve player ... at best. The addition of new coach and offensive mind Mike McCoy is a positive, as is a schedule that includes 10 games against teams that surrendered 16-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2012. Still, it's going to be extremely tough to trust Rivers as anything more than a late-round No. 2 fantasy option in most 2013 drafts, especially with the multiple injuries the Chargers have experienced at the WR position.

6. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles (16.40 points):
Home: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals
Away: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2013 Outlook: Vick (27th) will be the top quarterback for new coach Chip Kelly, and he'll face a favorable schedule with 10 games against teams that gave up 16-plus fantasy points to the position last season. That includes contests against the Vikings, Chiefs, Raiders and Buccaneers. This is a situation to watch, as Kelly's offenses were ultra productive at Oregon and should make the brittle but talented Vick an interesting option in all fantasy football formats. He has No. 2 quarterback value.

7. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears (16.30 points):
Home: Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New Orleans Saints
Away: Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, St. Louis Rams
2013 Outlook: Cutler (23rd) is no longer an elite fantasy quarterback, and that isn't likely to change under new coach Marc Trestman. Still, he does have a shot to improve on his mediocre 2012 totals based on a schedule that includes eight games against teams that gave up 16-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. Look for the veteran Vanderbilt product to come off the board in the late rounds as a No. 2 fantasy field general and matchup-based starter in most 2013 drafts.

8. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (16.09 points):
Home: Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, New York Giants
Away: Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings
2013 Outlook: Newton (4th), who has finished in the top four in fantasy points in each of his first two NFL seasons, will have a nice advantage in 2013 based on FPA. The talented field general will play in 11 games against opponents that surrendered 16-plus fantasy points to the position in 2012, including matchups versus the Saints (2), Buccaneers (2), Vikings and Bills. Look for Newton to come off the board in one of the first three to four rounds in the majority of 2013 fantasy leagues.

9. E.J. Manuel, Buffalo Bills (16.06 points):
Home: Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Kansas City Chiefs
Away: Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars
2013 Outlook: The Bills released Ryan Fitzpatrick during the offseason, and Kevin Kolb experienced a concussion in preseason which may eventually end his career. E.J. Manuel has won the starter job by default, and he has quite a favorable schedule that includes eight contests against teams that surrendered 16-plus fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this past season. Manuel won't have much value in most seasonal 2013 drafts, however. And if he isn't healthy enough to start Week 1, the team announced rookie Jeff Tuel will be under center agains the Patriots.

10. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (16.04 points):
Home: Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Washington Redskins
Away: Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Green Bay Packers
2013 Outlook: Ryan (7th) is coming off the best fantasy campaign of his career with 4,719 yards, 33 total touchdowns and 304.56 fantasy points. He'll face a top-10 schedule in 2013 based on last season's FPA with 10 games against teams that gave up 16 or more fantasy points to quarterbacks. That isn't a shock though, as the NFC South carries two different teams (Saints, Buccaneers) that allowed the most fantasy football points to opposing signal-callers overall last season.

11. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (15.97 points):
Home: Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, San Diego Chargers
Away: Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts
2013 Outlook: While he did show flashes of potential at times, Tannehill (24th) still recorded underwhelming fantasy totals as a rookie. With that said, there is room for major improvement -- and a favorable schedule that includes eight games against teams that gave up 16-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks last season will surely help. Tannehill will also have receivers such as Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, Brandon Gibson and Dustin Keller at his disposal in the pass attack.

12. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals (15.90 points):
Home: St. Louis Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions
Away: St. Louis Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles
2013 Outlook: The quarterback position in Arizona was absolutely dreadful last season, as the team threw for a combined 11 touchdowns. There's new hope with coach Bruce Arians at the helm, and the veteran Palmer will face a nice schedule that includes eight games against teams that surrendered 16-plus fantasy points to the position. While he isn't going to re-emerge as an elite option, Palmer is going to be well worth a late-round look as a reserve and matchup-based starter.

13. Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville Jaguars (15.67 points):
Home: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills
Away: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Cleveland Browns
2013 Outlook: Will it be Gabbert (32nd) or Chad Henne (33rd) under center for the Jaguars this upcoming season? That remains to be seen, but the eventual starter will go up against seven teams that surrendered 16 or more fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2012. While that's a favorable slate that includes contests against the Chiefs, Bills, Raiders, Titans (2), it's going to be very tough for any Jaguars quarterback to make a significant fantasy impact for owners.

14. Eli Manning, New York Giants (15.59 points):
Home: Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Seattle Seahawks
Away: Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Carolina Panthers
2013 Outlook: Manning (15th) is coming off a disappointing campaign, both on the field and in the stat sheets. His totals were almost all down across the board, and his biggest stat line was in Week 17 (when most fantasy seasons are already over). With that being said, Manning should still be a solid No. 2 quarterback with nine games against teams that allowed 16-plus fantasy points to opposing signal-callers in 2012, including the Redskins (2), Vikings, Raiders and Chiefs.

15. Mark Sanchez, New York Jets (15.56 points):
Home: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Oakland Raiders
Away: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans
2013 Outlook: Sanchez (30th) went from being ranked 10th in fantasy points among quarterbacks in 2011 to waiver-wire fodder in most formats last season. What's more, he is no lock to even open the 2013 campaign as the No. 1 option for coach Rex Ryan. Whether it's Sanchez or Smith, the eventual starter likely won't be drafted in most fantasy leagues. Sanchez is dealing with a shoulder injury he suffered against the Giants, which may help Smith start Week 1. The schedule as a whole includes 10 games against teams that allowed 16-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2012.

16. Matt Flynn, Oakland Raiders (15.56 points):
Home: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Pittsburgh Steelers
Away: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, New York Jets
2013 Outlook: Will it be Flynn (68th) or Terrelle Pryor atop the Raiders depth chart? That's debatable, but the eventual starter will not have a major advantage based on schedule. The Silver & Black will have eight games against teams that surrendered 16-plus fantasy points to signal-callers this past season. Regardless, this will be a quarterback battle to watch. If Pryor wins the role, he will become an instant fantasy sleeper based on his verstaile skill set. The loss of left tackle Jared Veldheer is a big one that could have an effect on Oakland's entire offense.

17. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (15.55 points):
Home: Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Away: Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals
2013 Outlook: A top-five fantasy option in 2011, Stafford (11th) put up big yardage totals last season but saw his touchdown total decline significantly. While he's still a No. 1 fantasy quarterback in most formats, the veteran won't warrant such a high draft pick again. His upcoming schedule has its ups and downs and won't have a major effect on his overall fantasy value, but games against the Vikings (2), Buccaneers, Eagles and Redskins are all pretty favorable.

18. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (15.54 points)
Home: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans
Away: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Oakland Raiders
2013 Outlook: Have we been overrating Roethlisberger (18th) in fantasy circles all these years? He has thrown for 4,000-plus yards just twice in his career, while failing to start all 16 games in each of his last four seasons. With seven games against teams that gave up 16-plus fantasy points to his position in 2012, Roethlisberger's upcoming schedule isn't going to help improve his value. He'll be seen as a No. 2 fantasy signal-caller and matchup-based starter.

19. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15.24 points):
Home: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles
Away: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Detroit Lions
2013 Outlook: Freeman (13th) was one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy football during the first half of last season, but he struggled down the stretch and lost some of his luster. Freeman, who had a very favorable FPA rankings last season, has a tougher task ahead with just six games against teams that surrendered 16-plus fantasy points per game. What's more, five other contests will be against teams that gave up fewer than 14 points to the posiiton last season.

20. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (15.20 points):
Home: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Minnesota Vikings
Away: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New York Giants
2013 Outlook: I'm on board with the impressive Wilson (10th), who finished his rookie season as one of the better quarterbacks in fantasy land. The versatile signal-caller has an up-and-down FPA schedule in 2013, with eight different games versus teams that allowed 16-plus fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season. Regardless of the schedule, which includes games against the 49ers (2), Falcons and Texans, the arrow is pointing up for this talented player.

21. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (15.56 points):
Home: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins
Away: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals
2013 Outlook: Luck (9th) is coming off one of the most successful seasons for a rookie quarterback ever, finishing with a record 4,374 passing yards and 28 total touchdowns. With a year of pro experience under his belt, he should do nothing but improve despite a moderately-tough schedule. Luck will play eight games against teams that allowed 16-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2012, but only three of those team surrendered an average of more than 17 points.

22. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (14.97 points):
Home: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons
Away: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers
2013 Outlook: Looking at the strength of schedule for a quarterback like Rodgers (2nd) is a pointless task ... he's statistically amazing no matter the opponent. But for the purposes of this column, the veteran will play a total of seven games against squads that allowed 16-plus fantasy points per game to field generals in 2012. Rodgers will also go up against six teams that surrendered an average of fewer than 13 points, but again, it matters little in this case.

23. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (15.10 points):
Home: Arizona Cardinals, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers
Away: Arizona Cardinals, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins
2013 Outlook: If you watched NFL Fantasy LIVE during the second half of last season, you probably already know that I am a huge fantasy fan of Kaepernick (25th). His passing and running skills could turn him into one of the eight best quarterbacks in 2013, but Kaepernick will have to endure a tougher schedule than most players at his position. He'll play in just six games against teams that allowed 16-plus fantasy points per game to opposing signal-callers last season.

24. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans (15.07 points):
Home: Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots
Away: Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens
2013 Outlook: Schaub (19th) has fallen from the top-tier of fantasy quarterbacks in recent seasons, and a re-emergence isn't likely with Arian Foster in the offensive mix. Now more of a No. 2 fantasy option in most leagues, the Virginia product will play in just three games against teams that allowed 17 or more fantasy points per game to field generals in 2012. Look for Schaub to come off the board in the late rounds as a reserve and occassional matchup-based starter.

25. Tom Brady, New England Patriots (14.84 points):
Home: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos
Away: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans
2013 Outlook: Much like Rodgers, it matters very little that Brady (3rd) has a tough FPA schedule. In fact, he had the hardest slate heading into 2012 and still finished among the three best players in fantasy football. The future Hall of Famer will play in just three games against teams that gave up 17-plus fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season, including the Jets (2), Steelers, Broncos and Falcons. Still, Brady will be no worse than a fourth- or fifth-round pick.

26. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (14.81 points):
Home: Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Indianapolis Colts
Away: Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, San Diego Chargers
2013 Outlook: Though he didn't finish strong during the fantasy postseason, Dalton (12th) still had a nice statistical year for fantasy owners with 3,669 passing yards and 31 total touchdowns. Whether or not he can duplicate the same numbers of scores remains to be seen, but Dalton won't have it easy based on FPA totals. Seven of his 16 games in 2013 will come against teams that gave up 14 or fewer fantasy points per game to opposing signal-callers last season.

27. Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans (14.80 points):
Home: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets
Away: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers
2013 Outlook: Locker (28th) has a lot of upside from a statistical perspective, but injuries have hampered his rise to stardom. He'll no doubt still enter 2013 as a deep-sleeper candidate in a lot of leagues, but keep in mind that Locker's schedule will be one of the toughest among quarterbacks. In fact, he'll play in just three games against teams that allowed 17-plus fantasy points per game to his opposing field generals in 2012. Consider Locker in the late rounds.

28. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (14.69 points):
Home: Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Houston Texans
Away: Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos
2013 Outlook: Flacco (14th) is a tough quarterback to figure out. He plays well at home and struggles on the road during the regular season, but the man is almost always a terrific statistical option in the postseason. Playing in the AFC North and with games against the Jets, Bears, Broncos and Texans, the schedule isn't going to do any favors for Flacco in 2013. So despite his playoff success a year ago, he's still just a No. 2 fantasy quarterback in most leagues.

29. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (14.68 points):
Home: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys
Away: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Chicago Bears
2013 Outlook: Outside of Rodgers, there hasn't been a more productive quarterback in fantasy football than Brees (1st) over the last five years. With that said, looking at Brees' strength of schedule isn't going to decrease his value. He's the lone field general to pass for 5,000-plus yards and 40-plus touchdowns in two straight seasons in league history, and the return of coach Sean Payton is an obvious positive. Look for Brees to be drafted no later than Round 4.

30. Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings (14.53 points):
Home: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Carolina Panthers
Away: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks
2013 Outlook: Ponder (22nd) has shown flashes of potential at times, but he's still a long way from being someone fantasy leaguers can trust. The Florida State product won't be given any favors from the schedule makers either, as he'll play nine games against teams that allowed fewer than 15 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks in 2012. While he is worth a late-round look, don't expect Ponder to become a breakout superstar between the white lines.

31. Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns (14.53 points):
Home: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars
Away: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs
2013 Outlook: Weeden (26th) will have some help this season in the form of offensive-minded coach Rob Chudzinski and new coordinator Norv Turner. While those are positives in terms of his overall development at the NFL level, Weeden also plays in the AFC North and faces tough games against the Patriots, Jets and Bears. Furthermore, he'll play in eight games against teams that allowed an average of fewer than 14 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last year.

32. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams (14.02 points):
Home: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Chicago Bears
Away: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys
2013 Outlook: Bradford (16th) had the best fantasy season of his pro career in 2012, and he still failed to finish in the top 15 among quarterbacks. Whether or not he has reached his statistical ceiling remains to be seen, but he'll have a tough time breaking out based on a schedule that includes nine games against teams that surrendered 14.07 or fewer fantasy points to opposing signal-callers in 2012. Bradford won't be taken until late in drafts.

Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Have a burning question on anything fantasy related? Tweet it to @Michael_Fabiano or send a question via Facebook!

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