NFL fantasy football: TE rankings based on schedule

The National Football League has a strength of schedule formula that's simple to understand -- take the opponent's records from the previous season, add up the wins and losses and calculate a percentage. My fantasy points allowed (FPA) rating is similar. It uses statistics (fantasy points) surrendered by opponents the previous year against a single position both at home and on the road instead of team records. For example, the Washington Redskins allowed an average of 12.93 fantasy points per home game to tight ends in 2012. As a result, any tight end that faces them in Washington this season is rewarded 12.93 points. The bigger the point total, the easier the schedule.

These ratings are not to be confused with player rankings and are not the be-all, end-all in determining a player's stock. However, owners should use them when picking between players with similar value and looking for potential sleepers.

1. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons (8.34 points):
Home: Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Washington Redskins
Away: Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Green Bay Packers
2013 Outlook: Gonzalez (3rd) will return for another NFL season, and he will have quite the advantage based on our FPA rating for tight ends. In fact, the future Hall of Famer will play in just two games against teams that gave up an average of fewer than seven fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. A virtual lock to remain one of the five-best players at his position from a fantasy football perspective, Gonzalez will be worth a look in the middle rounds.

2. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers (8.11 points):
Home: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals
Away: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Miami Dolphins
2013 Outlook: Once considered the best tight end in fantasy football, Gates (12th) has seen his numbers decline in each of the last three seasons. Despite scoring a respectable seven touchdowns, the veteran still finished outside of the top 10 players at his position based on fantasy points. A favorable schedule against teams like the Broncos (2), Titans and Redskins is a positive, but it is tough to trust Gates as anything more than a low-end No. 1 fantasy option.

3. Anthony Fasano, Kansas City Chiefs (8.04 points):
Home: Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Cleveland Browns
Away: Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Buffalo Bills
2013 Outlook: Tony Moeaki (33rd) has talent, but he suffered a fractured shoulder in Kansas City's third preseason game, putting his status for 2013 up in the air. Fasano will likely be asked to carry the wordload. A favorable slate of games doesn't make him that much more attractive from a fantasy perspective. For the purpose of this column, though, Fasano will play 11 games against teams that allowed seven-plus fantasy points to tight ends in 2012. That includes matchups against the Broncos (2), Raiders (2), Texans, Titans and Redskins. At best, Fasano will be a late-round flier.

4. Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles (7.81 points):
Home: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals
Away: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2013 Outlook: Celek (21st) has alternated good and bad fantasy seasons in each of the last four years, with 2012 being a down statistical campaign. Does that mean he'll rebound in 2013? Maybe, but I still don't see him as more than a late-round No. 2 option. His schedule should help, as Celek will play 11 games against teams that allowed an average of seven-plus fantasy points to tight ends in 2012. That includes contests against the Redskins (2), Buccaneers, Broncos and Raiders.

T-5. Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers (7.79 points):
Home: Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, New York Giants
Away: Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings
2013 Outlook: In a season that saw the value of tight ends collapse, Olsen (6th) posted his best pro totals with 843 yards, five touchdowns and 114.30 fantasy points. The offense shouldn't change much under new OC Mike Shula, so the veteran should have plenty of opportunities to produce in the stat sheets. A favorable slate of games that includes matchups against the Buccaneers (2), Saints (2), Patriots and Vikings will help Olsen's appeal. He'll be a middle- to late-rounder.

T-5. Jeff Cumberland, New York Jets (7.79 points):
Home: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Oakland Raiders
Away: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans
2013 Outlook: The state of the tight end position is in a state of flux for Gang Green after the loss of Dustin Keller, which leaves Cumberland (31st) as the favorite to start. While he'll have minimal fantasy value, he will have the advantage of facing one of the five-easiest schedules based on our FPA ratings. In fact, Cumberland will play 11 games against teams that gave up seven-plus fantasy points to tight ends last season. That includes the Patriots (2), Saints and Bucs.

7. Ed Dickson, Baltimore Ravens (7.77 points):
Home: Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Houston Texans
Away: Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos
2013 Outlook: Dickson was all but invisible from a fantasy perspective last season, but Dennis Pitta's injured hip has him right back on the fantasy radar. He shouldn't be drafted as a No. 1 tight end, but Dickson is a legit No. 2 option somewhere in the late rounds. He has a favorable slate of games, as the Ravens play 12 times against teams that allowed seven-plus fantasy points to tight ends last season. That includes games against the Patriots, Broncos, Lions, Texans and Vikings.

8. Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers (7.73 points):
Home: Arizona Cardinals, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers
Away: Arizona Cardinals, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins
2013 Outlook: Davis (15th) had a strong statistical finish in San Francisco's postseason run, but he was an abject disaster during most of the regular season. In fact, he scored double-digit fantasy points just once after Week 5. Still, Davis will enter the 2013 campaign as a viable No. 1 fantasy tight end. The schedule should help too, as the veteran out of Maryland will play in 11 games against teams that surrendered seven-plus fantasy points to opposing tight ends last season.

9. Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars (7.56 points):
Home: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills
Away: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Cleveland Browns
2013 Outlook: Aside from the 2010 campaign, where he scored 10 touchdowns, Lewis (17th) has been an afterthought in fantasy leagues. In 2012, he ranked 17th in points among tight ends and was waiver-wire fodder in most formats. So while a schedule that includes games against the Titans (2), Texans (2) and Raiders is favorable based on our FPA rating, Lewis isn't someone to target for a major fantasy role. In fact, he won't even have his named called in most 2013 fantasy drafts.

10. Brandon Myers, New York Giants (7.53 points):
Home: Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Seattle Seahawks
Away: Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Carolina Panthers
2013 Outlook: Myers (10th) is coming off the best season of his career, posting 79 catches, 806 yards and four touchdowns with the Raiders. Now in New York, he'll remain a No. 1 fantasy tight end across the board. A schedule that includes 11 games against teams that allowed seven-plus fantasy points to tight ends last season is an obvious positive, and makes Myers even more attractive in fantasy land. He'll come off the board in the middle to late rounds in most 2013 leagues.

T-11. Zach Miller, Seattle Seahawks (7.52 points):
Home: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Minnesota Vikings
Away: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New York Giants
2013 Outlook: Miller (30th) might have posted improved numbers during the 2012 postseason, but he's been mostly invisible during his time in the Great Northwest. In fact, he's failed to even rank among the 25 best players at his position in two straight years. So while Miller does have a good schedule, including games agains the Saints, Buccaneers, Panthers and Texans, he still won't be worth more than a late-round flier in most drafts. His name might not even be called at all.

T-11. Rob Housler, Arizona Cardinals (7.52 points):
Home: St. Louis Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions
Away: St. Louis Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles
2013 Outlook: When was the last time the Cardinals had a fantasy-relevant tight end? The best I could come up with is Freddie Jones, and that was close to a decade ago. So while Housler (38th) did put up a respectable 45 catches last season, he's not going to have much fantasy appeal. That comes despite the fact that he has a combined 10 games against teams that gave up an average of seven-plus fantasy points to opposing tight ends in 2012. At best, he'll be a deep-league flier pick. He also left Arizona's third preseason game with an ankle injury and did not return, which damages his value even further.

13. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys (7.49 points):
Home: New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams
Away: New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, New Orleans Saints
2013 Outlook: One of the most consistent tight ends in fantasy football, Witten (5th) has become a lock to finish among the best players at his position based on points. The Tennessee product will play a combined 11 games against teams that surrendered an average of seven-plus fantasy points to opposing tight ends last season, which makes Witten even more attractive in drafts. Among his more favorable contests are games against the Redskins (2), Vikings, Broncos, Raiders and Saints.

14. Jacob Tamme, Denver Broncos (7.43 points):
Home: Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Baltimore Ravens
Away: Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, New England Patriots
2013 Outlook: Tamme (26th) was considered a possible sleeper heading into last season, but he finished 26th in fantasy points at his position while losing red-zone targets to Joel Dreessen. So while the presence of Peyton Manning is a positive, Tamme isn't someone who should be drafted as more than a reserve. That is despite a reasonably favorable schedule, as Tamme and Dreessen will play in 10 games against teams that allowed an average of seven-plus fantasy points to tight ends.

15. Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts (7.38 points):
Home: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins
Away: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals
2013 Outlook: Coby Fleener received more of the fantasy preseason press in 2012, but it was Allen (23rd) who led Colts tight ends in fantasy points. Both players will have nine games against teams that gave up an average of seven-plus points to opposing tight ends in 2012, so their strength of schedule is more on the positive side from a fantasy perspective. However, neither Allen nor Fleener will be worth much more than a late-round flier as a fantasy reserve in most drafts.

T-16. Scott Chandler, Buffalo Bills (7.37 points):
Home: Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Kansas City Chiefs
Away: Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars
2013 Outlook: Chandler (14th) has found the end zone six times in each of the last two seasons. Unfortunately, his catches, yardage totals and overall production leave a lot to be desired -- he's also coming off an ACL operation. While Chandler does have 10 games against teams that allowed an average of seven-plus fantasy points to tight ends last season, just two of those squads allowed nine or more. His best matchups are against the Patriots (2), Buccaneers, Panthers and Saints.

T-16. Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans (7.37 points):
Home: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets
Away: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers
2013 Outlook: The Titans signed Walker (34th) in the offseason, and he'll replace Jared Cook as the team's top tight end. While he will play 11 games against teams that allowed an average of seven-plus points to tight ends in 2012, just four of those squads allowed more than nine per game. Still, Walker will likely be paired with Taylor Thompson and could be relegated to blocking duties rather than seeing opportunities in the passing game. There is only limited value here.

18. David Ausberry, Oakland Raiders (7.35 points)
Home: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Pittsburgh Steelers
Away: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, New York Jets
2013 Outlook: The Raiders lost breakout fantasy tight end Brandon Myers to the Giants, which leaves Ausberry and rookies Nick Kasa and Mychal Rivera as the two options at the position in Oakland. Unfortunately, none of them will have much value from a fantasy football perspective. Their slate of games in 2013 won't significantly hurt or help their appeal in fantasy drafts, as nine of the 16 contests will be versus teams that allowed seven-plus fantasy points to tight ends last season.

19. Charles Clay, Miami Dolphins (7.31 points):
Home: Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, San Diego Chargers
Away: Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts
2013 Outlook: Dustin Keller left one AFC East team (Jets) for another, signing a one-year deal with the Dolphins. However, after suffeing a brutal knee injury in preseason, he is shelved for the year. Clay or Dion Sims will likely split time with no top option, and the team's 2013 schedule will include 10 games against teams that surrendered an average of more than seven fantasy points per game to tight ends. Of course, just one of those contests will come versus a team that allowed more than nine points. Overall, the schedule doesn't make Miami's tight end bunch any more or less attractive in fantasy land. None of them will become primary fantasy options.

20. Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers (7.26 points):
Home: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons
Away: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers
2013 Outlook: A fantasy disappointment last season, Finley (19th) scored just two touchdowns and finished a mediocre 19th in fantasy points among tight ends. Now that he'll be back in Green Bay for the upcoming 2013 campaign, Finley will have 10 games against teams that gave up an average of over seven fantasy points to tight ends last season. Of course, that list includes just two contests against a squad that gave up an average of more than nine. Consider Finley a No. 2 option.

21. Fred Davis, Washington Redskins (7.22 points):
Home: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers
Away: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Atlanta Falcons
2013 Outlook: Davis (44th) missed most of last season with an injured Achilles' tendon, but he's back with the Redskins and could turn into a fantasy bargain. His schedule isn't going to have a major effect on his draft appeal in 2013, as Davis will play in a combined 10 games against teams that gave up an average of seven-plus fantasy points per game to tight ends last season. However, just three of those teams allowed more than nine. Overall, Davis is worth a late-round look.

22. Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots (7.20 points):
Home: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos
Away: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans
2013 Outlook: One of the best tight ends in fantasy football, Gronkowski (2nd) has scored a combined 38 touchdowns in his first 43 pro games. That's an impressive number. Assuming there are no setbacks in his return from forearm and back operations, Gronkowski will be highly coveted in 2013 drafts regardless of his strength of schedule. If his status for Week 1 becomes a major question mark, though, Jake Ballard will suddenly have late-round value as a potential deep sleeper.

23. Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions (7.10 points):
Home: Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Away: Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals
2013 Outlook: Pettigrew (22nd) is coming off his worst statistical season since 2009, due in part to the fact that he missed two games due to injuries. While he'll return to his starting role in 2013, he's not much more than a No. 2 fantasy option in standard leagues. Pettigrew won't gain an advantage based on the Lions' schedule, as the veteran will play seven games against teams that allowed an average of fewer than seven fantasy points per game to tight ends last season.

24. Owen Daniels, Houston Texans (7.09 points):
Home: Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots
Away: Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens
2013 Outlook: Daniels (8th) posted some of his best pro stats last season, finishing eighth in fantasy points among tight ends. He's already reached his statistical potential, but the veteran remains a No. 1 option at what has become a thin position. The Texans schedule won't help, though, as they'll face eight games against teams that surrendered an average of fewer than seven fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2012. Look for Daniels in the middle to late rounds.

25. Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears (7.05 points):
Home: Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New Orleans Saints
Away: Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, St. Louis Rams
2013 Outlook: Bennett (13th) is coming off the best fantasy season of his career with 626 yards, five touchdowns and 92.60 points as a member of the Giants. Still, his inconsistent level of production kept him from emerging into a true fantasy starter. The slate of upcoming games in 2013 won't help, either, as the Bears face just three different teams that surrendered an average of more than eight fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends during the 2012 campaign.

26. Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings (7.02 points):
Home: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Carolina Panthers
Away: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks
2013 Outlook: Rudolph (9th) didn't put up huge yardage totals last season, but he did find the end zone nine times and finished in the top 10 in fantasy points at his position. Overall, the reigning Pro Bowl MVP has nice upside and will be drafted as a No. 1 option, but the schedule isn't going to help him based on our FPA ratings. In fact, Rudolph faces seven games against teams that allowed an average of fewer than seven fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends last year.

27. Jared Cook, St. Louis Rams (7.01 points):
Home: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Chicago Bears
Away: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys
2013 Outlook: Cook (20th) seems to be among the top fantasy sleepers at his position each season, and each season he disappoints owners. That was the case in 2012, as he barely finished among the 20 best tight ends based on fantasy points. So while his move to St. Louis is a positive one, he still shouldn't be selected as a No. 1 option. The schedule won't help Cook either, as he'll play games against the 49ers (2), Seahawks (2) and Bears among his more formidable opponents.

28. Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints (6.97 points):
Home: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys
Away: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Chicago Bears
2013 Outlook: Graham, the top-scoring tight end in fantasy football last season, has finished no worse than second in points at his position since 2011. And while he does have one of the toughest schedules among tight ends based on our FPA ratings, Graham has the ultimate equalizer in Drew Brees when facing tough teams like the 49ers, Dolphins, Seahawks and Bears. The veteran is one of the two most valuable players at his position and should come off the board in Rounds 3-4.

29. Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals (6.83 points):
Home: Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Indianapolis Colts
Away: Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, San Diego Chargers
2013 Outlook: Gresham (11th) is coming off his best statistical season, posting 64 receptions, 737 yards, five touchdowns and 101.70 fantasy points. Whether or not he has reached his fantasy ceiling remains to be seen, though, as he still failed to rank among the top 10 at his position. With a combined seven games against teams that allowed an average of fewer than seven fantasy points per game to tight ends last season, Gresham could have a tough time posting better numbers.

30. Luke Stocker, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6.77 points):
Home: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles
Away: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Detroit Lions
2013 Outlook: The Bucs decided not to bring back Dallas Clark, so Stocker (50th) and Tom Crabtree are the two favorites to start in his absence for the 2013 campaign. Neither has made a major impact from a fantasy perspective, though, and the slate of games isn't at all favorable based on our FPA rating. Stocker and Crabtree will play in seven different games against teams that have allowed an average of fewer than seven fantasy points per game to tight ends last season.

31. Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers (6.64 points):
Home: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans
Away: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Oakland Raiders
2013 Outlook: Miller (4th) re-emerged into a top-10 fantasy tight end last season, but he's in danger of missing the start of the 2013 campaign after enduring a major knee reconstruction after suffering a torn ACL, MCL and PCL. When he does return, the veteran will play 11 games against teams that allowed fewer than seven fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2012. Even in a best-case scenario, Miller would be worth no more than a late-round pick coming off such a ailment. Backup Matt Spaeth recently had foot surgery and is expected to miss a minimum of 10 weeks.

32. Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns (6.31 points):
Home: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars
Away: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs
2013 Outlook: Ben Watson signed with the Saints, so Cameron (46th) should wind up as the starter for new coach Rob Chudzinski. Regardless, the eventual No. 1 will not be in a good position to bust out based on the Browns upcoming schedule. Of their 16 games, 11 will come against teams that surrendered an average of fewer than seven fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends in 2012. Still, Cameron will have some late-round flier appeal in drafts.

Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Have a burning question on anything fantasy related? Tweet it to @Michael_Fabiano or send a question via Facebook!

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