1. Quarterbacks valued lower
There isn't a quarterback among Nawrocki's top 16 prospects, with Central Florida's Blake Bortles coming in atop the position at No. 17. How others rate: Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater (No. 20), Fresno State's Derek Carr (No. 23) and Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel (No. 26), Eastern Illinois' Jimmy Garoppolo (No. 41) and Alabama's AJ McCarron (No. 44).
Nawrocki sees a group headed for more development than stardom in its collective rookie year.
"There's not a true franchise quarterback in this class, and to me, there's not a top-10 worthy quarterback. You might see that come draft day. We have a couple more weeks, but teams are going to draft the most impactful players," Nawrocki said. "The quarterbacks, in part because of the five-year (rookie) contract, being able to extend them a year longer, I think you'll see more quarterbacks getting a harder look at the back of the first (round)."
2. Size a concern on Jernigan, Ford
Defensive linemen Timmy Jernigan and Dee Ford of Florida State and Auburn, respectively, rated just No. 39 and No. 46 on Nawrocki's top 50. Both have been projected elsewhere as first-round picks, although NFL Media analyst Bucky Brooks has Jernigan being picked very close to Nawrocki's value in his two-round mock draft, No. 36 overall to the Oakland Raiders. Nawrocki sees size as a concern for both players.
Nawrocki: "To me, you're talking about an undersized nose tackle in Jernigan. He's more of a pure nose. The sack production wasn't there. He clocked well enough in the 40, and his 10-yard time, to be projected in the 3-technique role. But I think he's more of a true nose. You want your nose tackle to be a little stronger and more stout. Can he go in the top 15? It could happen. Nothing shocks me anymore. But if you want to talk about true value, I see him more in the early second round, and I know a lot of teams share the same sentiment. ... Ford is undersized. I don't know that the pure instincts and intelligence are there. So if you're talking about a simplistic zone blitzing, aggressive defense like the Steelers, he could be perfect. But I see the value lower."
3 Pryor well ahead of Clinton-Dix
Louisville's Calvin Pryor and Alabama's Ha Ha Clinton-Dix frequently have been lumped together as a pair in being regarded as the draft's top two safety prospects. There isn't even much of a consensus on which of the two will be the first safety taken, but for Nawrocki, the better prospect is clear. He rates Pryor as the draft's No. 11 prospect, and Clinton-Dix at No. 29.
Nawrocki: "To me, Clinton-Dix grades out as more of a true second-round talent, honestly. But I think because of the pressing need, that position as a whole is going to get pushed up. I think there's a clear separation between Pryor and Clinton-Dix, when you talk about the physicality Pryor brings to the field. ... It wouldn't shock me if he were drafted in the top 10 this year, and I think he'll definitely go in the top 15. It's possible Clinton-Dix might not be far behind, but it wouldn't surprise me if he were sitting there near the top of the second."
4. Shazier rates well
Nawrocki rated Ohio State linebacker Ryan Shazier as the fourth-best linebacker prospect in the draft behind Khalil Mack, Anthony Barr and C.J. Mosley. That's not uncommon at all -- NFL Media analyst Daniel Jeremiah does the same with his top 50. But Nawrocki rates Shazier significantly higher than most as the draft's No. 13 overall prospect.
Nawrocki: "He's rare, with his speed and movement skill. You're talking about a game that is now 60 percent nickel coverage. You need linebackers that can run, and he's all over the field. I think that's going to drive his value up. I could easily see him going in the top 15."