NFL Week 3 fantasy sleepers: Dak Prescott a top-five QB? Trust Falcons defense

There was a lot of confusion about Prescott during fantasy draft season. How could a quarterback with his track record have fallen so far down draft boards? After the first six quarters of this season, it looked like a great call from the haters. But Dak turned it up in the second half and overtime against the Giants, throwing for 224 yards and a touchdown.  

Now the 'Boys travel to Chicago to face the Bears. A couple of weeks ago, I would have pegged this a tough matchup. That was before J.J. McCarthy came to life in the fourth quarter of Week 1. Or before Jared Goff and the Lions mauled them in Week 2. Now the onus is on the Bears to show they can slow down an opponent -- especially one that figures to throw the ball as often as Dallas does. A guy you drafted as a fringe QB1 could have top-five upside this week.

Darnold had a career year in Minnesota last season. The skeptics wondered if he could match that production outside of a Kevin O’Connell offense. The early results have been unimpressive. Darnold was better in Week 2 as the 'Hawks were more pass-heavy against the Steelers, but his 15.8 fantasy points aren’t likely to significantly increase his roster percentage. 

Up next are the Saints. Despite showing some fight, they’ve still been susceptible to giving up touchdown passes. Kyler Murray tossed a pair in Week 1, while Mac Jones threw three in Week 2. If you believe in progressive trends -- or are just wishcasting -- then Darnold should put up four scores. I’m dubious about that. I am more confident that Darnold’s ceiling in Week 3 is as a low-end QB1. 

With all the TreVeyon Henderson ballyhoo this summer, you’re forgiven if you forgot Stevenson was still in New England. When Stevenson was mentioned at all by fantasy folks, he was the caboose on the rookie’s hype train. Through two weeks, it’s been the reverse. Stevenson has more than doubled Henderson’s snaps while handling the majority of the Patriots’ running back touches. In Week 2, 'Mondre posted a career-best 88 receiving yards to go along with 54 yards on the ground. 

Are we point chasing? Maybe. Are we following the usage trends? Definitely. At some point, Henderson might see more work. For now, however, the veteran is the undisputed RB1 in Foxborough. Next up is a Steelers defense that was gashed by Breece Hall in Week 1 and Kenneth Walker III in Week 2. If Stevenson continues to see most of the rushing work, the chances for another solid fantasy week are high.

It took less than one full game for a backfield takeover to happen in Minnesota. Mason got off to a hot start in Week 1 and took most of the snaps and carries. If Aaron Jones managers had a saving grace, it’s that their guy was getting more work in the passing game. That advantage disappeared in Week 2. With Jones dealing with a hamstring issue, Mason saw more targets than the veteran. Mason is in line to be Minnesota's RB1 with Jones landing on IR and out through at least Week 7.

It couldn’t come at a better time for Mason managers. The beleaguered Bengals come to town for Week 3. Cincinnati’s defense has been as porous as advertised. But now there’s no Joe Burrow to put pressure on the opposition's defense. With Jones out and quarterback J.J. McCarthy (ankle) unlikely to play this week, Kevin O’Connell’s offense could lean heavily on Mason. He should be at least a flex in most formats. 

The Chiefs have had a rough start to the season. Pacheco has not been immune from the struggles. In fact, he might be a symptom of them. The fourth-year running back has just 47 rushing yards (on 15 carries) -- tied for a distant second on the team behind ... Patrick Mahomes' 123 yards. A lack of usage has contributed to Pacheco’s ineffectiveness. He’s carried the rock 10 times or fewer in eight of his last 10 games (including playoffs). Pacheco is also irrelevant in K.C.’s passing game, so managers can’t count on cheap PPR points in two-minute situations. 

But there’s a gleam on the horizon in the form of the New York Giants. Maybe a trip back to Pacheco’s native New Jersey will do him some good. What might be even better is for the Chiefs to be in some positive game scripts. Kansas City has held a lead for just two minutes through two games this season. That seems likely to turn around this week against the Giants. If the Chiefs can take a lead into the fourth quarter, it should mean more work for Pacheco. The ceiling won’t be especially high, but this should raise his floor enough to make him flex material.

The Dolphins held a players only meeting after being shellacked by the Colts in Week 1. It didn’t help enough. Miami was better but still not good enough in a Week 2 loss to New England. One thing was consistent across both games: Miami giving up big plays in the passing game. The Dolphins have allowed nine completions for 217 yards and three touchdowns on throws of 10 or more air yards, per Next Gen Stats.  

Josh Allen took plenty of downfield shots in the Week 1 track meet against Baltimore. With the Dolphins offense seemingly finding its sea legs last week, Allen and the Bills need to be more aggressive in kind. When Allen has gone deep this year, it’s frequently been in the direction of Palmer, who leads the team with 13 air yards per target and has 27 percent of Buffalo’s air yards. Look for him to see a few deep shots and have flex appeal in many leagues. 

People sorta freaked out when Njoku was the forgotten man behind Harold Fannin Jr. in Week 1. Things got slightly better in Week 2, but Fannin was still too big a part of the equation for many managers’ liking. Why, then, am I not pumping Fannin in this spot? Because you’re all on to him. And if an army of keyboard warriors is on the lookout for Fannin, don’t you think NFL defensive coordinators will be, too? 

But there’s another reason to keep an eye on Njoku this week. He’s playing more of the traditional tight end role for the Browns while Fannin has thrived as a big slot receiver. The Packers defense has been very good in the first two weeks, but it’s still had an issue with pass-catching tight ends. Both Sam LaPorta and Zach Ertz went for double-digit fantasy points against the Pack. With the Browns likely in catch-up mode again, the Chief could see a lot of targets -- especially in the second half. 

It doesn’t take much to be a relevant fantasy tight end these days. In Week 2, Adam Trautman had three catches, 10 yards and a touchdown. He finished as the TE11. Which is how Tonges makes the list this week. Two weeks ago, not even the most fervent 49ers fan could have picked him out of a lineup. Now he’s tied for third on team in receptions.  

The Cardinals defense has been decidedly meh in the first two weeks. It’s been even worse against tight ends. Juwan Johnson had eight catches for 76 yards in the opener. Ja’Tavion Sanders had seven grabs for 54 yards to help the Panthers make it a ball game last week. Understand two things about Tonges this week: He is a deep sleeper play with a limited ceiling. And beware of Luke Farrell, who isn’t a big part of the Niners offense but did steal a touchdown last week. But if you’re in a pinch and need a TE start, Tonges is worth a roll of the dice. 

There are a lot of things about fantasy football that can be complicated. Some things are not. For instance, when you find a weakness, you exploit it. Through two weeks, the Carolina Panthers offense looks like one of those weak points. Only three teams have scored fewer points than the Panthers. No team has turned it over more than Carolina. Even despite a furious rally in the fourth quarter to make things interesting in the desert, Arizona was still the DST3 last week. 

Guess who was the top-scoring fantasy defense in Week 2? If you said the Atlanta Falcons, stand by to collect your prize. They got after J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings, tallying six sacks and four takeaways. A fierce pass rush has been a welcome addition to the Dirty Birds defense. They currently rank fourth in quarterback pressure rate. That’s bad news for a Panthers offense already struggling with the forward pass. The Falcons have solid streaming vibes again this week. 

Things weren’t going particularly great for the Bengals offense this season. It struggled to get anything going in a narrow Week 1 win over the Browns. In Week 2, it trailed the Jaguars when Joe Burrow was injured in the second quarter. The good news for Cincy is that Jake Browning came in to help pilot it to a win. But that doesn’t hide the blemishes in the offense. Bengals QBs have constantly been under duress. Burrow was sacked on 11 percent of his dropbacks (fifth-highest rate in the league).  

Expect Brian Flores and the Vikings defense to turn up the heat on Browning this week. Browning faced pressure on about a quarter of his dropbacks in relief last week. In those situations, he completed two of his eight throws for 29 yards and two interceptions. There will likely be purple-clad menaces consistently in Browning’s face. Look for a lot of sacks and turnovers with the Vikings vying to be fantasy’s stop defense in Week 3.