The dreaded 0-2 start has 10 NFL clubs reeling, dashing preseason optimism on the rocks of reality.
Back-to-back defeats put immense pressure on clubs to turn things around in short order.
Since 1990, only 35 of 288 0-2 clubs (12.2%) made the postseason, 19 won a division title (6.6%) and three took home a Lombardi Trophy (1%) -- 1993 Dallas Cowboys after Emmitt Smith ended his holdout; 2001 New England Patriots, who saw Tom Brady make his first career start in Week 3; 2007 New York Giants, who won their next six games and became the first NFC wild card team to win a Super Bowl.
On the shiny side, last season, three of nine 0-2 teams turned things around to make the playoffs. The Ravens and Rams won their divisions, and the Broncos swiped the final wild-card spot. All three of those clubs won their Week 3 matchup.
A trip to 0-3 can spell the end of any optimism. Of the 165 clubs to start with a trio of defeats since 1990, only four made the playoffs (2.4%), two won their divisions (1.2%) and not one team won a Super Bowl, per NFL Research. Those numbers rise to 93 of 374 (24.9%), 47 (12.6%), and four (1.1%) with a 1-2 start.
With the percentages known, let's tackle our yearly task of ranking the 0-2 clubs to see which might have the best chance of turning things around.
Reason for optimism: Patrick Mahomes still exists.
Well, Mahomes can do something Tom Brady never did: Turn around a 0-2 team. Brady famously never opened a season with back-to-back losses as a starter, though the G.O.A.T. did have some early-season pills to swallow -- i.e., the "On to Cincinnati" game against Andy Reid's 2014 Chiefs.
Since he took over under center, Mahomes had never lost three straight games until Sunday -- Super Bowl LIX followed by Weeks 1 and 2. The Chiefs star had only lost back-to-back games four times in his career.
The early-season stumble might be new ground, but Mahomes has plowed through adversity before. He's been playing with a tattered receiver room for years. He's gone through offensive line overhauls. If the first two defeats showed anything, it's that the quarterback can still up his game. Somehow, the now 30-year-old looks faster on the move. If not for a Travis Kelce botch on the goal line, Sunday's loss to Philly could have turned out much differently.
Mahomes needs help, obviously. Someone to get open and make a tough catch. Someone needs to hit a blocked hole. It takes players and a band of coaches to create wins. But trust Reid and Steve Spagnuolo to get things figured out. In the meantime, Mahomes will continue to keep his team afloat until everyone else catches up.
Even if they can't overcome the division deficit to win a 10th consecutive title, the playoffs are certainly in play. And no opponent would want to welcome Mahomes to its house for Wild Card Weekend.
Reason for optimism: The defense is legit.
DeMeco Ryans' team harbors far too much talent to wallow in the AFC South cellar for very long.
Houston's defense is as hard-hitting as any in recent memory. Monday night's loss to Tampa Bay was a physical showcase, with big hits and sticky coverage. From front to back, Ryans' defense boasts playmakers who can wreck the game. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter are the most intimidating pass-rush duo going. Derek Stingley Jr. could be in for a Defensive Player of the Year-type season.
Yes, Ryans needs to shore up his run D, which got exposed early this season, but this is a defense that can carry the Texans to victory in 2025.
The offense needs to step up its end of the bargain. C.J. Stroud's unit must find some answers under pressure and new OC Nick Caley needs to prove he's better (or at least different) than the last guy.
With games against AFC South foes Jacksonville and Tennessee on deck, 0-2 can turn around quickly in a division up for grabs. We'll see if Ryans' club is going to reach out and grab it or let it slip.
Reason for optimism: It can't get worse!
In previous years of doing this exercise, it seemed easier to make an argument for teams turning it around early in the season -- whether it was due to a winnable division or a young QB who could make strides. This year, we're three teams in and I already feel like I'm on very shaky ground. The remaining teams on the list could each end up with a high draft pick, and you'd nod your head knowingly.
I didn't want to put the Bears this high after two crushing division losses. Teams that eventually turn things around in one season don't get blown out, giving up a 50-burger, particularly to a team that looked limp the week before. If the Packers beat the Lions by 14 and the Lions beat the Bears by 31, should Green Bay be favored by 45 over Chicago? Don't answer that.
The Ben Johnson era is off to an awful start. He's looking closer to Miami Adam Gase than New Orleans Sean Payton. But let's not forget that the 2016 Gase Dolphins started 0-2 before turning into a 10-win squad -- the rest of his tenure devolved from there.
It can't get any worse for Johnson, right? Sunday was the equivalent of running into your ex at a cookout and then her new boyfriend gleefully bashes you in the face with a pie in front of all your former friends (52 times).
Redemption arcs must start with flawed beginnings.
All the reasons the Bears began the offseason overflowing with optimism still remain. Johnson can still run an offense. Caleb Williams still boasts talent. The offensive line is better -- trust me, it is. Maybe Chicago needs to recalibrate after an offseason in which fans believed they were going to join the '85 Bears in city lore, but this isn't a club with 2008 Detroit Lions or 2017 Cleveland Browns-level talent.
The next two weeks -- with gams against a Cowboys defense that just got scorched by Russell Wilson and a Vegas squad still finding its own footing under Pete Carroll -- will tell a lot about whether Johnson's club can turn things around or get buried.
Reason for optimism: The upper-shelf talent is there.
Not too many clubs wallowing in the cellar boast talents like Malik Nabers, Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, Abdul Carter or Kayvon Thibodeaux. The strength of this Giants squad can be difference-makers.
The issue for Brian Daboll is that the massive holes become vacuums that seem to always suck in even superheroes.
The offensive line continues to really struggle and be injured. The secondary gets picked apart.
The defensive line has created havoc for stretches, but it hasn't been enough when the secondary is giving up easy tosses right off the snap. Defensive coordinator Shane Bowen's plans have been suspect, to put it kindly. The Giants need to lean into their physical, dynamic front to create mismatches. Bowen hasn't proven he's capable of doing so thus far. Will Daboll make a change at coordinator if the chronic issues continue?
In Week 2, we got a good Russell Wilson. When the moonball is hitting and he isn't staring at the rush, the veteran can still make plays. Unfortunately, we can't completely forget Week 1, when he was one of the worst versions of himself. If Wilson can dive-bomb defenses, the Giants can play a brand of football that can keep games close.
I'd like to see Cam Skattebo get more touches on offense, particularly behind this offensive line. The rookie's physical presence could help open up a stymied running game that doesn't get many holes opened. Defenders don't want to tackle that guy over the course of a whole game.
The thing to watch in New York is whether the coaching staff will give Jaxson Dart a real chance to usurp Wilson. The veteran's performance in Week 2 might have given him a bit more leash (the overtime interception aside). However, the next time the moonball facet shuts off, we could see the 25th overall pick of this year's draft. Dart's presence could change the entire calculus for the Giants. Is he the dynamic Jayden Daniels-type rookie that jump-starts an entire organization, or is he one that will require a lot of patience while he figures it out?
Reason for optimism: Kellen Moore's team is plucky.
In terms of talent, the Saints don't belong this high on the list. The holes are glaring. The stars are long in the tooth or have a deep injury history. On paper, New Orleans is a bottom-three team. It shouldn't surprise even the most spirited Saints supporter to see them at 0-2.
And yet, Moore's squad battles. It's entertaining. It makes opponents scrap for every inch. It doesn't just sink into the abyss when things go sideways (cough, Bears, cough). The defense is good enough to keep things close, and the offense has the weapons to be entertaining.
They're one of the more watchable talent-deprived teams I've seen in a while.
As I've written before, I'm not sure if Spencer Rattler is a franchise-altering quarterback, but he certainly has a place in the league. Whether it's a stopgap, Gardner Minshew-type or a backup who can fill in for a few weeks, Rattler could have a lengthy NFL career. He still makes some wonky decisions and misses more gimme throws than you want from a franchise starter, but the upside plays are so pretty that you can live with them -- for now. He fits Moore's offense and splashes pinpoint lobs downfield. He's elusive out of the pocket and can pick up first downs with his legs. He might be 0-8 in his career as a starter, but you can win with his talent.
The Saints are 0-2 with a -12 point differential. Only Houston (-6) and Kansas City (-9) have a better differential among the teams on this list.
This season is all about building blocks for Moore. Wins come later. If the Saints continue to battle every week, like they have these first two, it should be considered a successful season.
Reason for optimism: Cam Ward is for real.
The most overlooked No. 1 overall quarterback continues to walk in the shadows, but his play speaks loudly. I won't rehash everything I wrote last week, as most of it still applies, but it's worth reiterating that the rookie looks the part through two games.
Ward's ability to laser the ball all over the field is spellbinding. He takes too many sacks, and the Titans have too many negative plays for a young team to overcome, but Ward has the ingredients to be a Michelin Star chef. His arm is big, his vision for a rookie is excellent. When he sees a play develop, the ball is out and where it needs to be.
Ward showed on his first career touchdown pass that even some of those hero-ball, off-schedule plays can translate from college to the pros.
The rookie still needs more consistent help from his weapons and the defense, but the first two weeks are an indicator that the Titans have a quarterback. In the NFL, that's the biggest piece of the puzzle to turning things around.
Reason for optimism: Aaron Glenn has gone down this road before.
The Jets rode a steep roller coaster from the optimism of an exciting Week 1 loss to getting smashed by Josh Allen and the Bills. Reality lives somewhere in the middle.
Glenn is in the nascent stages of an attempt to remake the Jets after playing a key role in the Lions' long-awaited rise. There will be nausea-inducing ups and downs. Remember, Glenn's first year in Detroit, the team went 0-10-1 before its first victory. The turnaround started with a three-win season.
I don't think the Jets are so devoid of talent that they'll go winless through Week 11. The point is that if New York wants to truly see a rebuild through, it must be prepared for patience. Trust Glenn knows what he's doing, even if it's not clear on the field.
The defense certainly looks a far cry from what we're used to seeing in New York. There is a trove of errors that need to be cleaned up after allowing 64 points in two weeks. Simply tackling better would be a good place to start.
The offense looked fun and explosive in Week 1, with Breece Hall looking like a slippery jitterbug and Justin Fields dropping dimes. All that disappeared against Buffalo, and now Fields (concussion protocol) has been ruled out for Week 3. Leaning on Hall and the ground game should be the priority moving forward.
It's probably imprudent to try to preach patience to New York fans, but where has impatience led?
Reason for optimism: Tetairoa McMillan has flashed.
For the fourth consecutive season, the Panthers are 0-2. Woof.
A year ago, Dave Canales benched Bryce Young after his dreadful start to the 2024 campaign. There is no such lesson this time around. The quarterback must negate the turnovers if Carolina is to build on the positives from the end of last season.
Early this year, Young has been far too casual with the ball, turning it over five times in two games. That'll get you beat. In Week 2, his first-quarter turnovers spotted Arizona 10 points, and Carolina could never fully recover. It took six quarters and an injured, vanilla Cardinals defense, but we finally saw some of the positives Young showed down the stretch last season. He calmed down in the pocket and made pinpoint throws. No one is going to confuse him with Josh Allen, but Young's accuracy can be an advantage when he's on the move.
The big positive for Young is that McMillan has been legit. The rookie receiver has led the Panthers in receiving yards in each game, making six catches for 100 yards in Week 2. McMillan's 168 receiving yards through two games topped Kelvin Benjamin's 138 for the most through two career games in Panthers history. It's a good thing for Young that McMillan looks like a WR1, because 2024 first-rounder Xavier Legette looks far from the part.
The Panthers defense remains a massive work in progress, and the offensive line is now dealing with significant injury issues. It's on Young and McMillan to brighten a path to better days.
Reason for optimism: Offense took steps toward normalcy in Week 2.
Things looked bleak after Week 1, when Mike McDaniel's offense looked like a shell of itself in Indianapolis. Tua Tagovailoa turned the ball over three times, Tyreek Hill was frustrated, De'Von Achane couldn't pinball, Jaylen Waddle was frozen. It was a mess.
Miami still lost in Week 2, but at least the offense found life, with Tua throwing for 300-plus yards, Tyreek finally catching a 40-yard pass again, Waddle waddling in the end zone and Achane a menace in the passing game. It looked like the McDaniel offense we'd come to know.
There are bigger issues at play that cast a gloom over Miami, though.
The defense is a disaster with a banged-up secondary getting scorched and a front seven that should be better than they've shown through two weeks. The Dolphins have made Daniel Jones and Drake Maye look like prime Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.
McDaniel might brush aside questions about his job security, but they seem grating. His meetings with the media used to be brash and jolly. Now, he seems more sullen and melancholy. Can he gear up his troops to go and rebound? Or will they whimper their way to more losses?
Reason for optimism: The defense is good.
For six quarters, Cleveland's defense put the clamps on Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. The Browns pestered Burrow, holding the Bengals' explosive offense to 17 points and seven total yards in the second half. In Week 2, they stymied Baltimore for two quarters, allowing only 10 points, with the lone TD coming after a blocked punt. Sure, the dam broke in the second half, but that belies the point.
The Browns' defensive front with Myles Garrett and Mason Graham is a problem for offenses. When the secondary plays in phase, it's a defense that can give anyone fits.
Cleveland would have had a chance to steal a game if the offense could have done anything for eight quarters. From porous blocking to missed chances downfield to 40-year-old Joe Flacco thinking he's 24 again, heaving on-the-run passes that get intercepted, the offense was wholly forgettable for two weeks.
Perhaps as Quinshon Judkins gets more involved, he and Dylan Sampson can be a game-changing backfield duo for the Browns. Until then, the defense will continue trying to keep things close and pray the offense -- and special teams -- will not put them in a bad spot.
This has always felt like a transition year in Cleveland, and the 0-2 start does nothing to waver from that perception. The question is how long will it take Kevin Stefanski to give one of his rookies (Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders) a chance under center so the team knows what it has before next draft season.
