Week 16 fantasy sleepers: 10 high-upside lineup picks for playoff success

We have yet to truly solve the riddle of Bryce Young. He has succeeded in matchups that seemed dreadful (Week 13 vs. LAR) and flopped in more favorable ones (Week 12 at SF). That makes this week’s game against the Buccaneers a ponderous affair. Young’s recent track record suggests this could be a trap for both fantasy managers and the Panthers. But I’d like to go with the numbers this week over the vibes. 

The numbers say that the Bucs have been awful against fantasy quarterbacks for a while now. Since Week 10, opposing signal-callers have averaged 279 passing yards per game with 13 touchdown passes. They are averaging more than 25 fantasy points per game and Tampa has surrendered at least 18 points to the position in six straight contests. Regardless of Young’s recent spotty history, it’s worth trying to fit him into a lineup. 

It was ultimately a disappointing season on the field for the Kansas City Chiefs. But we did get a Patrick Mahomes renaissance in fantasy football. He finished Week 15 as the QB2 overall, a nice rebound after a pair of fringe top-12 seasons. Alas, Mahomes exits and Minshew enters. Add another backup quarterback to a season chock full of them. 

Ideally, he follows the lead of Joe Flacco, Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota -- giving managers usable weeks thanks to a grip-it-and-rip-it mentality in the pocket. That has tended to be the Minshew way, after all. He also gets to do it against a Titans defense that has been shredded this year. Tennessee has allowed eight straight starting quarterbacks to throw for more than 220 yards. It has also surrendered 18 touchdown passes to just two interceptions in that stretch. Minshew is best reserved as a QB2 or DFS play, but the matchup is good and there are enough weapons in Kansas City to make him viable.

Lost among all the J.J. McCarthy talk in Minnesota has been the Vikings' lack of a run game. Minnesota is in the bottom 10 of the league in rushing offense, averaging just barely over 100 yards per game. Statistically, both Jones and Jordan Mason have been OK. Both players average over 4 yards per carry. But the Vikes have the sixth-fewest attempts by running backs this year.  

Volume might not be a problem this week. Teams have run frequently and successfully against the Giants. Only five teams have faced more rush attempts than Big Blue. They’re also allowing 4.6 yards per carry this year with 18 touchdowns allowed on the ground. Finding the end zone would brighten Jones’ outlook this week. Even without a score, he should see enough touches to return flex-level value in many leagues. 

Raise your hand if you had never heard of Jordan before last week. No shame. This is a safe space. He’s a rookie who was drafted in the sixth round out of Louisville. He had also played exactly zero snaps before breaking out for 101 yards last week against the Cardinals. Jordan’s opportunity came after Woody Marks’ ankle injury. But he did enough with it for the Texans to sign him off their practice squad ahead of this week’s game against the Raiders. 

Las Vegas hasn’t been quite as running back-friendly as the Cardinals, but it isn't exactly stout, either. The Silver and Black are a top 10 matchup for rushers. You can credit a lot of that to the 15 rushing scores they’ve allowed to the position. In a game that is expected to be lopsided, the Texans should have plenty of opportunity to grind the clock in the second half. What better way to do that than with your late-round rookie who’s just looking for touches. Jordan could be a great low-cost DFS play.

Before the season, we accepted that the Packers having a WR1 was a fallacy. Lo and behold, it turned out to be Christian Watson. But prior to that, Reed was the consensus choice for that role. It’s been a lost season for Dairyland Deebo. He missed three months with collarbone and foot injuries. His two games since returning have shown modest production. However, Reed saw a big jump in his snap count and earned a team-high six targets. 

The Packers are hopeful that Watson (chest) can play this week, but it’s far from a sure thing. Watson’s absence puts targets up for grabs, a few of which will likely go Reed’s way. The Bears have allowed 19 receiving touchdowns to wideouts -- more than half coming on short throws. Reed’s 8.5-yard ADOT is tailor made for touchdown opportunities inside the 10. Oh, and he might even get you a few rushing yards. Reed has flex appeal in Week 16. 

Allen is having the kind of season that wouldn’t surprise you if he retired at the end of it. He returned to the Bolts on a one-year deal and has become an occasional participant in the offense as the season has progressed. Rookie Tre Harris hasn’t fully overtaken him, but it’s getting closer by the week. 

The split between the two has become predictable. Harris plays more in run-heavy game scripts while Allen has the advantage when the Chargers go pass-heavy. Dallas is facing the pass at an above-average rate. That should be the case again in what could be a high-scoring game featuring a pair of high-powered quarterbacks. Allen’s ceiling is modest, but it’s enough to make him a WR3 this week. 

If you’re looking for the No. 3 option in the Houston Texans passing game, look no further than Higgins. The problem for Higgins is that Houston is a two-man pass funnel. Nico Collins andDalton Schultz combine for 45 percent of the team’s targets. But Higgins has been cutting into that. In Weeks 10-14, Higgins grabbed a 20 percent target share. The run was disrupted when he had just one target last week against Arizona, but it also feels like a late-season outlier. 

This week’s game against the Raiders is a great opportunity to get back on track. Las Vegas is a top eight matchup for wideouts this season. Thirteen different players have notched a top-24 weekly finish against them. The Raiders' flailing offense isn’t likely to find much traction against the Texans defense. Expect Houston to have the ball a lot. Targets will be had. Higgins should see a few more his way this week. He’s a good WR3 in deeper leagues.  

By now, you’ve probably heard or read about the remaking of Sean McVay’s offense to include more 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends). The Rams have three tight ends that can be used interchangeably. What you may not have heard is exactly which one is the player who thrives most in these groupings. For the past three weeks, it’s been Parkinson. 

Since Week 13, Parkinson’s 18 percent target share is third behind (no surprise) Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. That number could see a bump this week with Adams (hamstring) unlikely to play. It could also rise thanks to a choice matchup against the Seahawks. Seattle has been a tight end-friendly defense all season long. Only the Cincinnati Bengals have allowed more catches. That fact was obscured last week by Philip Rivers looking like a 44-year-old who was playing his first NFL game in five years. No such issues exist with Matthew Stafford. If you’re streaming a tight end in your fantasy semifinals, Parkinson deserves a serious look. 

Gesicki’s fantasy numbers have been predictably poor. There was never room for him to earn a large target share in an offense with two dominant receivers and a pair of pass-catching running backs. Gesicki’s 20-point game in Week 14 is likely to be the outlier this season. But what if it wasn’t? 

The Bengals have easily been the worst team at defending tight ends. But the Dolphins aren’t too far in the rearview mirror. Only Cincy has allowed more catches and yards to tight ends this season. With Miami’s secondary doing a good job against wide receivers, Joe Burrow could get Gesicki more involved this week. It would be a risky start for your fantasy semifinals. But it could be an inspired DFS option. 

To hear members of Bills Mafia tell the story, this defense is being held together with bubble gum and happy thoughts. It’s only by the grace of Josh Allen that this unit is even viable. Yes, they have been bad against the run, but the defense is not in as much of a shamble as some would have you believe. 

Even if things were that bad, the Cleveland Browns are the cure for what ails. The Shedeur Sanders Experience has been only mildly better than The Dillon Gabriel Adventure. Apart from Sanders’ blowup game against the woebegone Titans, he’s averaging 178.2 passing yards per game with two touchdowns and four interceptions. Sanders has also been sacked 10 times in his three starts. Buffalo hasn’t excelled at pressuring the quarterback, but it won’t matter against Cleveland’s offense. The Bills are a solid streaming option for Week 16.