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NFL Week 11 game picks: Seattle stays hot; Raiders nip Texans

We have the old starter fully supporting the new starter in Dallas, as the Cowboys prepare to take on Baltimore. We'll get to see a new starter, fresh out of the No. 1 overall pick box, going in Los Angeles. And hopefully the Browns will stick with who we think is their starter the whole game this time around. Yep, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff and Cody Kessler are on the spot this week, at a pivotal time of the season in which teams are trying to pull away from the mediocre pack. Well, maybe not Kessler and the Browns -- who hopefully have moved to full Evaluation Mode -- but this is a very important week for their opponent, the 4-5 Steelers. Speaking of Pittsburgh ...

Man, almost winning -- if it weren't for half the team ...

Will the Bengals get back on track against the Bills this week? How will Zeke fare vs. a stout Ravens run defense? On that note, will Lev Bell erupt against the Browns? All the answers are below. Your take is welcome, too: @HarrisonNFL is the place.

Now, let's get to it!

Elliot Harrison went 8-6 on his predictions for Week 10, giving him a record of 94-51-2 thus far this season. How will he fare in Week 11? His picks are below:

So often Steelers at Browns has been a knuckleball of a game ... you know, like 10-9. (Come to think of it, these two did play a game just like that in 1982. I digress.) Pittsburgh must be six shades of pissed off, as a seventh Lombardi Trophy looks farther and farther away irrespective of how many people picked them to go to the Super Bowl at the outset of this season. Any chance the Steelers will have to accomplish that starts with winning in Cleveland. Given the Browns' 31st-ranked run defense (143.7 rush yards allowed per game), Le'Veon Bell should eclipse a hundy midway through the third quarter. #PITvsCLE

Strength on strength in this game. Ezekiel Elliott and that dominant Cowboys offensive line face a Ravens run defense that has allowed a scant 71.3 rush yards per game ( fewest in the NFL), just 11 rushes of 10 or more yards (fewest in the NFL) and four rushing touchdowns (tied for fewest in the NFL). Meanwhile, Zeke already boasts 29 scampers of at least 10 yards and has out-rushed 17 NFL teams. Oh yeah, and nine rushing touchdowns in as many games. Think Baltimore will fare much better than Cincinnati did in JerryWorld, but Dallas picks up another win. #BALvsDAL

I'm not taking the bait. No way. I've been watching Lions football for more than 30 years. I've seen more Eric Hipple-, Gary Danielson-, Chuck Long-, Rodney Peete-, Scott Mitchell-, Joey Harrington- and Daunte Culpepper-filled product than I care to remember. So forgive me for not handing Detroit a 34-14 win. The Lions have enough firepower on offense -- and bodies on defense -- to win. DC Teryl Austin is trying to hang on until he gets a couple players back. Let's see if Blake Bortles plays like Blake Shelton for three quarters again ... before turning into the garbage-time Hall of Famer we've all come to know. This is a Lions secondary that is ripe for the picking, not throwing picks. Jags fans, what's wrong with T.J. Yeldon, outside of the O-line? ( @HarrisonNFL) #JAXvsDET

Andrew Luck does it again. On paper, this is a terrible matchup for the Colts. They haven't been able to protect Luck (sacked 33 times), lucking out in Week 9 when Clay Matthews was inactive in Green Bay. Tennessee has 28 sacks on the year, which is fourth in the NFL. The Titans also run the football as consistently as any team in the pro game. Indy allows 4.7 yards per carry. Yet, with all those factors at play, Andrew Luck delivered a win in Nashville last month. Oh, and the Colts have beaten Tennessee 10 straight times. Good grief. #TENvsIND

The Bills' wait for their fifth win feels even longer than the Bruce Willis-Ben Affleck manlove scene at the end of "Armageddon." And Buffalo has had almost two weeks to get healthy for this game. My one concern for picking the Bills here: The Bengals' desperation. But could Cincy still be in the mix even if it fell to 3-6-1? If the Steelers win Sunday, they go to 5-5. The Ravens will probably fall to 5-5 in Big D. So, the season wouldn't be lost for Marvin Lewis' group. Unlike Eli Manning, Tyrod Taylor and the Bills' offense won't be doing the Bengals any favors. Buffalo has turned it over all of five times, fewest in the NFL, while the low-risk run game reaps high rewards at 155 per. #BUFvsCIN

Can the Chiefs shut down Mike Evans? If they don't, Tampa Bay is going to make this game darn interesting. If Marcus Peters handles Evans, or baits Jameis Winston into throwing him a couple of balls, look out. On the other side, if Alex Smith is ever going to connect intermediate-to-vertical throws, it should happen this week. Tampa Bay allows opposing quarterbacks 13.1 yards per completion, the most in the NFC. Back to Winston: He's been the most-hit quarterback in the league this season (7.4 knocks per game). The pass pro this Sunday will be of prime importance. Or maybe get Doug Martin going -- there's a novel approach (just 33 yards last week). #TBvsKC

This should be another of those fugly football games. Here's something neato: Eli Manning and Jay Cutler are Nos. 1 and 2 in turnovers over the last 10 years! The Bears faltered in every way down in Tampa last Sunday, while the Giants surely aren't above playing down to their competition. Alshon Jeffery won't be available, which means Cutler owns no deep threat. (Oh, and my fantasy team is jacked. The fact I was leaning on Jeffery in the first place? Oy vey.) Will Rashad Jennings produce again? He was stellar in the endgame scenario last Monday night, which means he probably will run for 25 yards. #CHIvsNYG

Really thought about picking the Vikings here. This freefall has to end sometime, right? That said, I have no freaking clue how the offensive line is going to compete with Arizona's blitz packages. The trust for Carson Palmer and that Cardinals offense against Mike Zimmer's defense isn't exactly at an all-time high, either. Not after those three hours of mediocre ball against the 49ers last Sunday. Did you know the Cardinals haven't won at Minnesota since 1977? I own that sucker on DVD (sadly, not on VHS). The Vikings couldn't stop Terry Metcalf, the father of '90s great Eric Metcalf. Wonder how they will do versus a much larger Metcalf in David Johnson. #AZvsMIN

In case you haven't heard,
Jared Goff -- you know, the guy who was taken first overall, one spot ahead of
Carson Wentz and
134 spots ahead of
Dak Prescott --
is starting.
We're going live with a Case Keenum press conference right now ... (That joke would have been funnier Tuesday, after
Tony Romo's presser. I'm just one man.) Think the
Dolphins win their fifth in a row, thanks in part to the fact that they stayed on the West Coast following
their win in San Diego. And although we talk about the dominance of the
Rams' front four often,
Matt Forte rushed for 98 yards
last week with no threat of a passing game. (
Bryce Petty was just as likely to pass out.) Therefore, sophomore running back
Jay Ajayi won't be bottled up. Speaking of brilliant second-year players, these franchises had
two of the best ever: Dan Marino and Eric Dickerson.

What do you want from me here? You don't like the score. OK, how about 50-14? If Colin Kaepernick runs wild and Carlos Hyde adds 100 yards of his own, perhaps the 49ers can limit Tom Brady's possessions. Good news here: Hyde rushed for 14 yards last week. On 13 carries. New England DC Matt Patricia has done an outstanding job with his unit, but it's worth noting that the Patriots allowed three of their six longest plays from scrimmage this season last Sunday night (36, 38 and 39 yards). Oh, what a great time for Torrey Smith to be alive. As for the 49ers' defense, the unit showed signs of life in Arizona, but it's on pace to be the second-worst in league history in terms of yards allowed. #NEvsSF

The front seven jumps off the page in Philly. While the media elite (and this time, I am not including your hack writer) keep mentioning Carson Wentz atop the discussion about Philadelphia's success, there's a more crucial factor at play here. If I have to shout it from the top of Mighty Mick's Gym, I will: The Eagles are winning with a DEFENSE that is top five in points allowed per game! They have a stiff challenge this week, though, traveling all the way to the Pacific Northwest to face a hot Seahawks team. So hot, that even the minimum-wage offensive line is balling. C.J. Prosise looked fantastic this past Sunday night, with 153 yards from scrimmage. (The dude led Seattle in rushing and receiving.) Meanwhile, Doug Baldwin stacked up three TDs. Most importantly, as stout as the Eagles' D has been, think Seattle's defensive unit is still better. The 'Hawks are allowing less points per game, despite playing three of the past four at Arizona, at New Orleans and at New England. #PHIvsSEA

Something tells me Aaron Rodgers is gonna go nuts this week. I picked Washington to win this game initially, and now ... well ... this is the problem with picking against Rodgers and that offense. Every time the Cheesehead attack seems grated -- and Rodgers appears to be on a different page from his receivers -- Green Bay balls out. Now, that didn't happen against the Titans, as the Packers suffered their third straight loss. Which makes prognosticating a fourth straight loss that much harder. Forget stopping Rodgers. How about slowing Kirk Cousins and the Redskins' attack? Washington is averaging 6.19 yards per play this season, which would be the highest figure in franchise history. #GBvsWAS

This is not as easy a game to pick as you might think. The Texans' defense has tightened, despite being put in tough positions by the offense on more than a few (or 30) occasions. If you think Derek Carr is going to light up Mexico City, consider that Houston's pass defense ranks third overall. Latavius Murray is too up-and-down to mitigate a shortfall in the air game himself, especially against the Texans' front seven. Sebastian Janikowski, who has not enjoyed a fantastic campaign, will win this deal down in Mexico. Muy mal that Houston passed on Carr not once but twice in the 2014 draft. I could pass along stats, salary info, pie charts, bar graphs and Doppler radar to explain why I say that about not drafting Carr, but do I really need to? #HOUvsOAK


The Saints still have hope in the NFC South -- even after the soul-crushing loss to the Broncos -- thanks to the Falcons falling in Philly. Let's not forget: New Orleans upended the Seahawks earlier this season. Of course, Atlanta's loss applies to all teams in the NFC South, including the down-but-not-out Panthers. Last time the Saints and Panthers faced off, they posted 79 points combined, the second most in a game this season. Cam Newton was awesome in that loss, and I think he will rebound from last week's game-shifting pick-six in this one. That said, look no further than his 65.8 passer rating on third down (101.9 last year) as to why Carolina has struggled.

 **Side note:** You have my pick for Thursday night, but be sure to make yours, as well. Go to to vote for "Which Can will Win" or use #SaintsCan or #PanthersCan on Twitter. 

Follow Elliot Harrison on Twitter @HarrisonNFL.

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