While Kate Upton takes on the Baseball Writers' Association of America, I tackle the Week 11 Game Picks.
We have the old starter fully supporting the new starter in Dallas, as the Cowboys prepare to take on Baltimore. We'll get to see a new starter, fresh out of the No. 1 overall pick box, going in Los Angeles. And hopefully the Browns will stick with who we think is their starter the whole game this time around. Yep, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff and Cody Kessler are on the spot this week, at a pivotal time of the season in which teams are trying to pull away from the mediocre pack. Well, maybe not Kessler and the Browns -- who hopefully have moved to full Evaluation Mode -- but this is a very important week for their opponent, the 4-5 Steelers. Speaking of Pittsburgh ...
funny thing is I think @Bengals should and could have beat both NYG and Was but 2 many mistakes, bad OL, D, & coach
— Frank Fitz (@forthrightfitz) November 16, 2016
Man, almost winning -- if it weren't for half the team ...
Now, let's get to it!
Elliot Harrison went 8-6 on his predictions for Week 10, giving him a record of 94-51-2 thus far this season. How will he fare in Week 11? His picks are below:
So often
[Steelers](/teams/pittsburghsteelers/profile?team=PIT) at
[Browns](/teams/clevelandbrowns/profile?team=CLE) has been a knuckleball of a game ... you know, like 10-9. (Come to think of it, these two did play a game just like that in 1982. I digress.) Pittsburgh must be six shades of pissed off, as a seventh Lombardi Trophy looks farther and farther away irrespective of
[how many people picked them](http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000693404/article/2016-afc-playoff-predictions-south-west-appear-wide-open) to go to the
[Super Bowl](http://www.nfl.com/superbowl) at the outset of this season. Any chance the
[Steelers](/teams/pittsburghsteelers/profile?team=PIT) will have to accomplish that starts with winning in Cleveland. Given the
[Browns](/teams/clevelandbrowns/profile?team=CLE)'
[31st-ranked run defense](http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=false&conference=null&role=OPP&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=RUSHING&season=2016&seasonType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=false&Submit=Go) (143.7 rush yards allowed per game),
[Le'Veon Bell](/player/le'veonbell/2540175/profile) should eclipse a hundy midway through the third quarter.
[#PITvsCLE](https://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23PITvsCLE)
Strength on strength in this game.
[Ezekiel Elliott](/player/ezekielelliott/2555224/profile) and that dominant
[Cowboys](/teams/dallascowboys/profile?team=DAL) offensive line face a
[Ravens](/teams/baltimoreravens/profile?team=BAL) run defense that has allowed a scant 71.3 rush yards per game (
[fewest in the NFL](http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS_PER_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1)), just 11 rushes of 10 or more yards (fewest in the NFL) and four rushing touchdowns (tied for fewest in the NFL). Meanwhile, Zeke already boasts 29 scampers of at least 10 yards and has out-rushed
*17* NFL teams. Oh yeah, and nine rushing touchdowns in as many games. Think Baltimore will fare much better than
[Cincinnati did in JerryWorld](http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2016100908/2016/REG5/bengals@cowboys), but Dallas picks up another win.
[#BALvsDAL](https://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23BALvsDAL)
I'm not taking the bait. No way. I've been watching
[Lions](/teams/detroitlions/profile?team=DET) football for more than 30 years. I've seen more Eric Hipple-, Gary Danielson-, Chuck Long-, Rodney Peete-, Scott Mitchell-, Joey Harrington- and Daunte Culpepper-filled product than I care to remember. So forgive me for not handing Detroit a 34-14 win. The
[Lions](/teams/detroitlions/profile?team=DET) have enough firepower on offense -- and bodies on defense -- to win. DC Teryl Austin is trying to hang on until he gets a couple players back. Let's see if
[Blake Bortles](/player/blakebortles/2543477/profile) plays like Blake Shelton for three quarters again ... before turning into the garbage-time Hall of Famer we've all come to know. This is a
[Lions](/teams/detroitlions/profile?team=DET) secondary that is ripe for the picking, not throwing picks. Jags fans, what's wrong with
[T.J. Yeldon](/player/t.j.yeldon/2552471/profile), outside of the O-line? (
[@HarrisonNFL](https://twitter.com/HarrisonNFL))
[#JAXvsDET](https://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23JAXvsDET)
[Andrew Luck](/player/andrewluck/2533031/profile) does it again. On paper, this is a terrible matchup for the
[Colts](/teams/indianapoliscolts/profile?team=IND). They haven't been able to protect Luck (sacked 33 times), lucking out
[in Week 9](http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2016110609/2016/REG9/colts@packers) when
[Clay Matthews](/player/claymatthews/80431/profile) was inactive in Green Bay. Tennessee has 28 sacks on the year, which is
[fourth in the NFL](http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&statisticCategory=SACKS&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2016&seasonType=REG). The
[Titans](/teams/tennesseetitans/profile?team=TEN) also run the football as consistently as any team in the pro game. Indy allows 4.7 yards per carry. Yet, with all those factors at play,
[Andrew Luck](/player/andrewluck/2533031/profile) delivered a win
*in Nashville*
[last month](http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2016102308/2016/REG7/colts@titans). Oh, and the
[Colts](/teams/indianapoliscolts/profile?team=IND) have beaten Tennessee 10 straight times. Good grief.
[#TENvsIND](https://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23TEXvsIND)
The
[Bills](/teams/buffalobills/profile?team=BUF)' wait for their fifth win feels even longer than the Bruce Willis-Ben Affleck manlove scene at the end of "Armageddon." And Buffalo has had almost two weeks to get healthy for this game. My one concern for picking the
[Bills](/teams/buffalobills/profile?team=BUF) here: The
[Bengals](/teams/cincinnatibengals/profile?team=CIN)' desperation. But could Cincy still be in the mix even if it fell to 3-6-1? If the
[Steelers](/teams/pittsburghsteelers/profile?team=PIT) win Sunday, they go to 5-5. The
[Ravens](/teams/baltimoreravens/profile?team=BAL) will probably
*fall* to 5-5 in Big D. So, the season wouldn't be lost for Marvin Lewis' group. Unlike
[Eli Manning](/player/elimanning/2505996/profile),
[Tyrod Taylor](/player/tyrodtaylor/2495240/profile) and the
[Bills](/teams/buffalobills/profile?team=BUF)' offense won't be doing the
[Bengals](/teams/cincinnatibengals/profile?team=CIN) any favors. Buffalo has turned it over all of five times, fewest in the NFL, while the low-risk run game reaps high rewards at 155 per.
[#BUFvsCIN](https://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23BUFvsCIN)
Can the
[Chiefs](/teams/kansascitychiefs/profile?team=KC) shut down
[Mike Evans](/player/mikeevans/2543468/profile)? If they don't, Tampa Bay is going to make this game darn interesting. If
[Marcus Peters](/player/marcuspeters/2552488/profile) handles Evans, or baits
[Jameis Winston](/player/jameiswinston/2552033/profile) into throwing him a couple of balls, look out. On the other side, if
[Alex Smith](http://www.nfl.com/player/alexsmith/2506340/profile) is ever going to connect intermediate-to-vertical throws, it should happen this week. Tampa Bay allows opposing quarterbacks 13.1 yards per completion, the most in the NFC. Back to Winston: He's been the most-hit quarterback in the league this season (7.4 knocks per game). The pass pro this Sunday will be of prime importance. Or maybe get
[Doug Martin](/player/dougmartin/2532899/profile) going -- there's a novel approach (just 33 yards last week).
[#TBvsKC](https://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23TBvsKC)
This should be another of those fugly football games. Here's something neato:
[Eli Manning](/player/elimanning/2505996/profile) and
[Jay Cutler](/player/jaycutler/2495824/profile) are Nos. 1 and 2 in turnovers over the last 10 years! The
[Bears](/teams/chicagobears/profile?team=CHI) faltered in every way
[down in Tampa last Sunday](http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2016111306/2016/REG10/bears@buccaneers), while the
[Giants](/teams/newyorkgiants/profile?team=NYG) surely aren't above playing down to their competition.
[Alshon Jeffery won't be available](http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000739706/article/alshon-jeffery-suspended-four-games-by-nfl), which means Cutler owns no deep threat. (Oh, and my fantasy team is jacked. The fact I was leaning on Jeffery in the first place? Oy vey.) Will
[Rashad Jennings](/player/rashadjennings/71345/profile) produce again? He was stellar in the endgame scenario
[last Monday night](http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2016111400/2016/REG10/bengals@giants), which means he probably will run for 25 yards.
[#CHIvsNYG](https://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23CHIvsNYG)
Really thought about picking the
[Vikings](/teams/minnesotavikings/profile?team=MIN) here. This freefall has to end sometime, right? That said, I have no freaking clue how the offensive line is going to compete with Arizona's blitz packages. The trust for
[Carson Palmer](/player/carsonpalmer/2505245/profile) and that
[Cardinals](/teams/arizonacardinals/profile?team=ARI) offense against Mike Zimmer's defense isn't exactly at an all-time high, either. Not after those three hours of mediocre ball
[against the 49ers last Sunday](http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2016111310/2016/REG10/49ers@cardinals). Did you know the
[Cardinals](/teams/arizonacardinals/profile?team=ARI) haven't won at Minnesota since 1977? I own that sucker on DVD (sadly, not on VHS). The
[Vikings](/teams/minnesotavikings/profile?team=MIN) couldn't stop Terry Metcalf, the father of '90s great Eric Metcalf. Wonder how they will do versus a much larger Metcalf in
[David Johnson](/player/davidjohnson/2553435/profile).
[#AZvsMIN](https://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23AZvsMIN)
In case you haven't heard,
Jared Goff -- you know, the guy who was taken first overall, one spot ahead of
Carson Wentz and
134 spots ahead of
Dak Prescott --
is starting.
We're going live with a Case Keenum press conference right now ... (That joke would have been funnier Tuesday, after
Tony Romo's presser. I'm just one man.) Think the
Dolphins win their fifth in a row, thanks in part to the fact that they stayed on the West Coast following
their win in San Diego. And although we talk about the dominance of the
Rams' front four often,
Matt Forte rushed for 98 yards
last week with no threat of a passing game. (
Bryce Petty was just as likely to pass out.) Therefore, sophomore running back
Jay Ajayi won't be bottled up. Speaking of brilliant second-year players, these franchises had
two of the best ever: Dan Marino and Eric Dickerson.
#MIAvsLA
What do you want from me here? You don't like the score. OK, how about 50-14? If
[Colin Kaepernick](/player/colinkaepernick/2495186/profile) runs wild
*and*
[Carlos Hyde](/player/carloshyde/2543743/profile) adds 100 yards of his own, perhaps the
[49ers](/teams/sanfrancisco49ers/profile?team=SF) can limit
[Tom Brady](/player/tombrady/2504211/profile)'s possessions. Good news here: Hyde rushed for 14 yards
[last week](http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2016111310/2016/REG10/49ers@cardinals). On 13 carries. New England DC Matt Patricia has done an outstanding job with his unit, but it's worth noting that the
[Patriots](/teams/newenglandpatriots/profile?team=NE) allowed three of their six longest plays from scrimmage this season
[last Sunday night](http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2016111312/2016/REG10/seahawks@patriots) (36, 38 and 39 yards). Oh, what a great time for
[Torrey Smith](/player/torreysmith/2495459/profile) to be alive. As for the
[49ers](/teams/sanfrancisco49ers/profile?team=SF)' defense, the unit showed signs of life in Arizona, but it's on pace to be the second-worst in
*league history* in terms of yards allowed.
[#NEvsSF](https://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23NEvsSF)
The front seven jumps off the page in Philly. While the media elite (and this time, I am not including your hack writer) keep mentioning
[Carson Wentz](/player/carsonwentz/2555259/profile) atop the discussion about Philadelphia's success, there's a more crucial factor at play here. If I have to shout it from the top of
[Mighty Mick's Gym](http://rocky.wikia.com/wiki/Mighty_Mick's_Gym), I will: The
[Eagles](/teams/philadelphiaeagles/profile?team=PHI) are winning with a DEFENSE that is
[top five in points allowed per game](http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&season=2016&seasonType=REG&role=OPP&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-p=1&conference=ALL&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&d-447263-s=TOTAL_POINTS_GAME_AVG)! They have a stiff challenge this week, though, traveling all the way to the Pacific Northwest to face a hot
[Seahawks](/teams/seattleseahawks/profile?team=SEA) team. So hot, that even the minimum-wage offensive line is balling.
[C.J. Prosise](/player/c.j.prosise/2555417/profile) looked fantastic
[this past Sunday night](http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2016111312/2016/REG10/seahawks@patriots), with 153 yards from scrimmage. (The dude led Seattle in rushing
*and* receiving.) Meanwhile,
[Doug Baldwin](/player/dougbaldwin/2530747/profile) stacked up three TDs. Most importantly, as stout as the
[Eagles](/teams/philadelphiaeagles/profile?team=PHI)' D has been, think Seattle's defensive unit is still better. The 'Hawks are allowing less points per game, despite playing three of the past four at Arizona, at New Orleans and at New England.
[#PHIvsSEA](https://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23PHIvsSEA)
Something tells me
[Aaron Rodgers](/player/aaronrodgers/2506363/profile) is gonna go nuts this week. I picked Washington to win this game initially, and now ... well ... this is the problem with picking against Rodgers and that offense. Every time the Cheesehead attack seems grated -- and Rodgers appears to be on a different page from his receivers -- Green Bay balls out. Now, that didn't happen
[against the Titans](http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2016111307/2016/REG10/packers@titans), as the
[Packers](/teams/greenbaypackers/profile?team=GB) suffered their third straight loss. Which makes prognosticating a
*fourth* straight loss that much harder. Forget stopping Rodgers. How about slowing
[Kirk Cousins](/player/kirkcousins/2532820/profile) and the
[Redskins](/teams/washingtonredskins/profile?team=WAS)' attack? Washington is averaging 6.19 yards per play this season, which would be the highest figure in franchise history.
[#GBvsWAS](https://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23GBvsWAS)
This is not as easy a game to pick as you might think. The
[Texans](/teams/houstontexans/profile?team=HOU)' defense has tightened, despite being put in tough positions by the offense on more than a few (or 30) occasions. If you think
[Derek Carr](/player/derekcarr/2543499/profile) is going to light up Mexico City, consider that Houston's pass defense
[ranks third overall](http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=PASSING_NET_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1).
[Latavius Murray](/player/lataviusmurray/2541161/profile) is too up-and-down to mitigate a shortfall in the air game himself, especially against the
[Texans](/teams/houstontexans/profile?team=HOU)' front seven.
[Sebastian Janikowski](/player/sebastianjanikowski/2504257/profile), who has not enjoyed a fantastic campaign, will win this deal down in Mexico.
*Muy mal* that Houston passed on Carr not once but twice in
[the 2014 draft](http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?season=2014&round=round1#round1). I could pass along stats, salary info, pie charts, bar graphs and Doppler radar to explain why I say that about
*not* drafting Carr, but do I really need to?
[#HOUvsOAK](https://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23HOUvsOAK)
THURSDAY NIGHT'S GAME
The
[Saints](/teams/neworleanssaints/profile?team=NO) still have hope in the NFC South -- even after
[the soul-crushing loss to the Broncos](http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2016111303/2016/REG10/broncos@saints) -- thanks to
[the Falcons falling in Philly](http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2016111305/2016/REG10/falcons@eagles). Let's not forget:
[New Orleans upended the Seahawks](http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2016103006/2016/REG8/seahawks@saints) earlier this season. Of course, Atlanta's loss applies to all teams in the NFC South, including the down-but-not-out
[Panthers](/teams/carolinapanthers/profile?team=CAR). Last time the
[Saints](/teams/neworleanssaints/profile?team=NO) and
[Panthers](/teams/carolinapanthers/profile?team=CAR) faced off,
[they posted 79 points combined](http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2016101605/2016/REG6/panthers@saints), the second most in a game this season.
[Cam Newton](/player/camnewton/2495455/profile) was awesome in that loss, and I think he will rebound from last week's
[game-shifting pick-six](http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-cant-miss-plays/0ap3000000738508/Can-t-Miss-Play-Eric-Berry-will-take-nothing-less-than-a-pick-six) in this one. That said, look no further than his 65.8 passer rating on third down (101.9 last year) as to why Carolina has struggled.
**Side note:** You have my pick for Thursday night, but be sure to make yours, as well. Go to
[NFL.com/budlight](http://www.nfl.com/budlight) to vote for "Which Can will Win" or use #SaintsCan or #PanthersCan on Twitter.
[#NOvsCAR](https://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23NOvsCAR)
Follow Elliot Harrison on Twitter @HarrisonNFL.