NFL Week 16 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup analysis for every game

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 16 NFL picks below. Watch local and prime-time games live on NFL+ -- and, of course, catch every touchdown from every Sunday game on NFL RedZone (with NFL+ Premium).

The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, Dec. 18.

SUNDAY, DEC. 21

Why Dan picked the Buccaneers: If you take one thing away from this blurb, it should be that neither of these teams are trustworthy. The Bucs are in a complete tailspin, losing five out of six, including last week's debacle at home, when they blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead against the Falcons. The Panthers are perhaps the most up-and-down team in the league, and they just squandered a 10-point third-quarter lead to the Saints. But one of these squads is going to emerge from the game as the NFC South leader with two weeks left in the regular season. My gut tells me the Bucs will respond to being called out by Todd Bowles and step up with a better defensive effort, at least. My concern is Baker Mayfield doesn't appear to be right, and he's missing throws he was making in the first half of the season. If that doesn't change on Sunday, Carolina could easily notch its first win over Tampa Bay since 2022.

Why Brooke picked the Bills: NFL Pro gives Cleveland two matchup advantages: defensive pressure rate and overall rushing efficiency. I'm not sure that will be enough to take down the mighty Bills, who are coming off a big divisional win and saw their road to the Super Bowl open up with Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs and Joe Burrow's Bengals getting eliminated from the playoffs last week. It should be noted that the Bills have been able to overcome shoddy defensive play at times thanks to Josh Allen, who is statistically outperforming his 2024 MVP numbers. James Cook deserves some credit, too. This offense is built to overcome a lot. In fact, the Bills are 4-1 when allowing 30-plus points in 2025 (the rest of the NFL is 10-98-2) and are 4-2 when allowing 185-plus rush yards (rest of NFL is 4-26). Considering these Browns -- led by rookies in pass attempts (Dillon Gabriel), carries (Quinshon Judkins) and receptions (Harold Fannin Jr.) -- have scored 30 points or more just once this entire season (Week 7) and have only eclipsed 120 yards rushing three times, it should be smooth sailing for Sean McDermott's bunch. And don't forget, we're on record watch: Myles Garrett needs 1.5 sacks to break the NFL's all-time single-season record of 22.5.

Why Ali picked the Chargers: No quarterback has been pressured, hit and sacked more than Justin Herbert this season, and the near-constant barrage has taken its toll on the passer's performance: He's currently sporting the lowest passer rating of his six-year career (92.2). But when the heat has been somewhat bearable -- let's say below 45 percent, which is still 11 points higher than the league average -- Herbert has played winning football. According to Next Gen Stats, Herbert is 8-1 with a 17:5 TD-to-INT ratio and a glowing 106.7 rating this year when he's been pressured below that 45 percent threshold. When the rate has eclipsed that mark, though, he's gone 2-3 with a 6:7 ratio and 71.7 rating. So, can the Cowboys' 15th-ranked pressure unit (34.4%) elevate its game against the Chargers' beat-up O-line? Probably to some degree, but not enough to royally disrupt Herbert -- especially if star DT Quinnen Williams is still in concussion protocol when this one kicks off. (EDITOR'S UPDATE: Williams was a full participant in Friday's practice) If the Chargers are able to build an early lead, I think their elite pass defense (first in passer rating allowed) will win enough battles against Dak Prescott & Co. to withstand a potential Cowboys comeback.

Fun fact: In Weeks 12 and 13, the Cowboys defeated the Eagles and Chiefs -- and in Weeks 14 and 15, the Chargers followed suit. That marks the first time in a single season that two different teams defeated the reigning Super Bowl contenders in consecutive weeks.

Why Tom picked the Saints: Three weeks after using Tyler Shough's offense as a reason to pick against New Orleans, I'm going to cite the rookie QB as a reason to pick with New Orleans? You got it. That's just the way of things in picks world. Shough still isn't generating points in bunches, but he's shown a level of scrappiness that demands attention, especially in the Saints' recent consecutive wins against purported playoff contenders (Tampa and Carolina). The Jets are plenty capable of scrapping, as well, bringing fight to their wins over the Bengals, Browns and Falcons. It's not like their worst loss in two years (Sunday's 48-20 megaflop against the Jags) wipes all that out -- but it doesn't help tip me in their direction here. Plus, New Orleans' defense has really tightened up recently, ranking seventh in the NFL in EPA per play going back to Week 10, giving up just 17.8 points per game in that span. It turns out that leveling up Shough and the D makes New Orleans' low-scoring ways more palatable, especially with Brady Cook in line to start again for Gang Green.

Why Gennaro picked the Vikings: Including the preseason, Jaxson Dart has been evaluated for concussions in five of his 10 NFL starts. While the rookie believes he’s being overprotected, all those trips to the blue tent have generated serious concern about the long-term viability of his devil-may-care playing style. But Dart isn't the only 22-year-old quarterback under the microscope in this game. J.J. McCarthy's two years in the NFL have largely been marred by injuries and ineptitude. Over the past two weeks, though, McCarthy has deftly directed Kevin O'Connell's offense, posting his first two passer ratings in the triple digits while accumulating a 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio and guiding the Vikings to a pair of wins over the Commanders and Cowboys. With the Giants on tap, will J.J. make it three straight victories over the NFC East? I think he will, but not without some nervous moments. Minnesota's battered offensive line remains a concern. And while New York's D-line has disappointed this year, it's still a talented group, especially with rookie Abdul Carter cranking up his game-wrecking over the past couple weeks. Meanwhile, the Vikings just lost two of their most crucial defenders, with edge menace Jonathan Greenard and Swiss Army knife Josh Metellus hitting injured reserve on Wednesday. This decreases the fear factor of Brian Flores going against a first-year field general. I think both young quarterbacks make some plays -- and experience some growing pains -- in an imperfect game between two injury-riddled teams that have already been eliminated from the playoffs. Ultimately, the better roster prevails.

Why Dan picked the Chiefs: My, how things have changed in the last week. For the first time in a decade, I have no grasp of what to expect from the Chiefs. They've lost Patrick Mahomes for at least the rest of the season and have already been eliminated from playoff contention. After such a monstrous buzzkill, I'm interested to see if they can muster the energy to go on the road and beat a Titans team that should be hungry to kick the reigning AFC champions when they're down. It doesn't help matters for Andy Reid that Rashee Rice is in concussion protocol as of this writing. (EDITOR'S UPDATE: Rice has been ruled out of Sunday's game.) The only thing keeping me from picking Tennessee is Kansas City's defense. It's still playing relatively well, despite the team's downturn, and Steve Spagnuolo should have a plan to make life difficult on rookie Cam Ward. If Mahomes' replacement, Gardner Minshew, gets loose with the ball -- he has more interceptions than touchdown passes in his last 13 games dating back to last season -- the upset will absolutely be in play.

Why Ali picked the Bengals: Because they have Joe Burrow. Truly. I know No. 9 played notably below his elite level last week, when he threw two picks and zero touchdowns in a shutout loss to Baltimore. But he's still as good as they come in this league and as committed as ever. One bad outing doesn't change that for me. … And then there's Quinn Ewers -- for whom I have absolutely zero feel. The Dolphins' offense has sort of evolved (devolved?) away from the QB position over the last couple months, so it's certainly possible that a few timely passes from the seventh-round rookie, combined with a heavy dose of De'Von Achane, serves as a winning formula for Miami. After all, the Bengals' 32nd-ranked run defense was just shredded by the Ravens last Sunday (189 yards on 7.9 ypc). … I nearly just talked myself into taking the Fins. Won't do it, though. Like Burrow, I'm sticking with the Bengals. Joe bounces back from arguably the worst loss of his NFL career with one of his classic performances.

Why Brooke picked the Falcons: Atlanta is coming off a big comeback win over the Bucs, while the Cardinals have only one victory in their last 12 games. It's Arizona's defense that has crumbled, giving up 33.4 points per game since the team's Week 8 bye. Jacoby Brissett has played relatively well and established quite the rapport with Trey McBride, who leads the NFL in receptions (105). The Cards will be without OL Paris Johnson Jr. (knee) but there's a chance they get Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) back. Drake London (knee) also has a shot to play this week, which would go a long way for the Falcons offense. London hasn't played a snap since Nov. 16 and still leads the team in receiving yards and receiving TDs. I do think the Falcons can get it done regardless of London's availability. Combine Arizona's poor defensive play with the fact that the Falcons come in with the NFL's scrimmage-yards leader in Bijan Robinson, a resurgent Kyle Pitts and a defense that ranks second in sacks, and Atlanta is in a decent position to win back-to-back games for just the second time this season -- if it can keep the penalties to a minimum. (Please keep the penalties to a minimum.)

Why Tom picked the Broncos: Can you believe we get to enjoy a high-stakes late-December game between Jacksonville and Denver? The last two times these teams played each other, Trevor Lawrence lost to Russell Wilson (in 2022) and Teddy Bridgewater (in 2021). Now, the Broncos are looking to push past the 12-win mark for the first time since 2013, while the Jags' next victory will get them to 11 for the first time since 2007, and both squads are major players in the fight for postseason positioning. Call it the "Paul Rudd Saying 'Look at Us!' on *Hot Ones*" Bowl. Jacksonville and Denver appear to be fairly evenly matched, especially since Week 9, when the Jags began to really heat up; in that span, they've performed better in EPA per play on defense (fifth in the NFL) and offense (10th) than the Broncos (eighth and 12th). Then again, Sunday's showdown looks like Jacksonville's toughest test since Week 10, when the team fell to the Texans in Houston, while Denver's been handling its business left and right, including in Week 15's rugged win over the Packers. Another thing to circle: The Texans were the last team to seriously pressure Lawrence, heating him up at a rate of 50% and sacking him five times, and that was also the last time the QB posted a passer rating under 80 (74.2). Maybe he'll show some growth against the team rocking the league's second-highest pressure rate (40.5%), but for now, that's one more drop in the take Denver bucket.

Why Dan picked the Lions: I don't like this matchup for the Steelers, assuming the Lions' pass rush comes to play. The explosiveness disparity seems about as large as it gets for two teams in playoff contention. Yes, Pittsburgh's offense has shown more life in recent weeks, with Aaron Rodgers finding some success down the field for a change, but his limitations as a 42-year-old quarterback didn't go away overnight. With Aidan Hutchinson leading the charge, Detroit's defense has a 37.8% pressure rate, the sixth-highest mark in the league. Meanwhile, Rodgers has a 37.1% completion rate under pressure in 2025, which ranks last in the NFL. The Lions lead the league in points per game (30.6) and that number jumps even higher when they're at home (33.7). The Steelers just don't have the same juice. If Detroit can get after Rodgers and control the clock on offense, it will relieve the stress on the Lions' injury-plagued secondary, setting up a comfortable victory for a team clinging to playoff hopes.

Why Brooke picked the Texans: Props to DeMeco Ryans for turning this ship around in the second half of the season after starting 3-5. A six-game win streak has the Texans sitting pretty in terms of the playoff picture heading into Week 16. Ryans' squad should have no problem making it seven in a row on Sunday. The championship-caliber defense leads the NFL in both scoring (16.3 PPG allowed) and total D (269.2 YPG allowed) and faces a floundering Raiders offense that ranks last in scoring (14 PPG), total offense (244.1 YPG), rushing (70.8 YPG) and sacks allowed (54). Geno Smith could return after missing Week 15, but it likely won't matter on the scoreboard, as the Raiders have few consistent bright spots (Maxx Crosby and Brock Bowers) on this current roster. Expect C.J. Stroud and Co. to cruise at home.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: Raiders coach Pete Carroll announced on Friday that Geno Smith will start against the Texans.

Why Gennaro picked the Patriots: The revitalized Patriots ran off 10 straight wins before last week, when they ran into Josh Allen. Despite beating Buffalo back in Week 5 and jumping out to a 21-0 lead on Sunday, New England failed to kill the Bills. The Pats would have clinched the AFC East title with a win, but Allen kept the celebratory hats and T-shirts boxed with five straight touchdown drives. New England just couldn't stop the reigning MVP. Is two-time MVP Lamar Jackson the same kind of beast? Well, he was, back in September, but Lamar just hasn't been Lamar since returning from injury in late October.

In this matchup, New England rosters the MVP candidate in second-year sensation Drake Maye. The Patriots also boast the vastly superior defense. Baltimore has home-field advantage … but the Ravens are just 3-5 this season at M&T Bank Stadium while the Pats are a perfect 6-0 on the road. Frankly, I think the wrong team is favored.

MONDAY, DEC. 22

Why Ali picked the 49ers: San Francisco is 7-0 against sub.-500 teams this season and 2-3 against squads with a winning record; fittingly, the Niners split their two games against the 7-7 Bucs (loss) and Panthers (win). Those numbers then beg the question … Are the Colts a good team? They definitely were at one point. But after four consecutive losses, it's hard to say. They fought valiantly at Seattle last weekend, with Philip Rivers serving as a superb game manager in a near-upset of the vaunted Seahawks. But the Colts' offense was clearly limited with the 44-year-old at the helm. And while it's unfair to expect Rivers to execute the Colts' explosive passing attack as adeptly as a healthy Daniel Jones, the savvy veteran will have to connect on at least a few downfield throws for Indy to stand a chance in this one. Tough ask as it is -- even tougher if he doesn't have the football. The 49ers have dominated time of possession during their four-game win streak, sustaining long scoring drives on the back of a league-best 60 percent third-down conversion rate -- 7 points higher than the second-placed Packers. I see that success continuing on Monday night, and I fear this version of the Colts offense won't be able to keep up.

THURSDAY'S GAME

Why Gennaro picked the Rams: This is a week-to-week league, of course, with fresh debates spawning each and every Sunday. But at the moment, the Rams are widely considered the cream of the NFL crop. There are many reasons for this, from their overall roster strength to the ferocious defensive front to Matthew Stafford's MVP-worthy play at age 37. But personally, I'm most struck by the chameleon nature of Sean McVay's offense. The unit seemingly has the most cards to play, which is quite beneficial in the constantly changing landscape of a football season. Take this week, for example. It appears the Rams will be without Davante Adams (knee/hamstring), depriving the passing game of the league leader in touchdown receptions. No matter. (EDITOR'S UPDATE: Adams has been ruled out.) Los Angeles still has Puka Nacua, who ranks second in the NFL in catches and yards. Not to mention, McVay has periodically been getting funky with his versatile collection of tight ends, flummoxing defenses with 12 and 13 personnel. OK, but what if Seattle drops some of that signature rain? Well, the Rams boast a potent ground attack with the 1-2 punch of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum -- honestly, it's hard to tell them apart these days, given their similar efficiency, size, play style and jersey numbers (23 and 22). Bottom line: No matter what you throw at this offense, McVay has answers. Meanwhile, Seattle's offense is facing one big question: Is Sam Darnold turning into a pumpkin again? After a scintillating start to the season, the Seahawks signal-caller has struggled with consistency over the past five weeks, going back to his four-pick debacle in the loss to these Rams a month ago. Chris Shula's defense also gave the quarterback fits in January, when the Rams blew Darnold's Vikings out of the playoffs. For his part, Darnold says Los Angeles is “just another opponent.” That sounds like someone who knows he has demons -- and I don't think he'll be exorcising them in this game.

SATURDAY'S GAMES

Why Tom picked the Eagles: I'm going to start with something a little weird, maybe provocative and even a bit upsetting, depending on your point of view, but: This one sort of reminds me of a Browns game. It's not that either team reminds me of the Browns themselves, who might as well exist in a different universe from Washington or Philly; it's just that there is exactly one unit I believe in to play at a high level, no matter what else is going on, and it's the Eagles' stingy defense (sixth in points allowed, 10th in yards allowed per play, fifth in EPA per play). Like Myles Garrett and Co., Vic Fangio's gang is basically guaranteed to be a problem for whoever is lining up on the other side. I don't feel the same way about Jalen Hurts' offense or, well, anyone in a Commanders jersey at this moment. The Eagles have topped 370 yards and 30 points in the same game just twice all season, against the Giants (in Week 8) and Raiders (last Sunday). And going back to Week 10, Philly actually ranks worse (21st) than the Commanders in EPA per play (17th) on offense. It's true that the last time I centered a blurb around my belief in the Eagles' defense, I was burned, back on Black Friday -- but Philly's offense had to completely disappear for the Bears to scratch out that one. Washington figures to be a more forgiving opponent, ranking on the other end of the takeaway spectrum (31st in the NFL) from Chicago (first). I wouldn't put it past the Commanders to show some spirit, just not enough to dislodge the most reliable difference-makers on the field.

Why Brooke picked the Bears: Not having Micah Parsons (torn ACL) for the stretch run and beyond is a tough pill for Cheeseheads to swallow. His void will certainly be felt Saturday night. Parsons currently leads the NFL with 83 QB pressures -- 40 more than any other Packer this season, per Next Gen Stats. Who will step up? Perhaps Lukas Van Ness, who returned last week after missing time to injury. The Bears enter this game with the league's fifth-ranked total offense and second-best rushing attack, but it's a real possibility Caleb Williams won't have Rome Odunze and/or Luther Burden III. (EDITOR'S UPDATE: Odunze and Burden were officially ruled out of the game after publishing on Thursday.) It's likely Ben Johnson leans on his backfield duo of D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, along with Williams' scrambling ability. All 700 Packers receivers were on the midweek injury report, but the big one to keep tabs on is Christian Watson, who has emerged as the team's WR1. Turnovers will tell this tale. If Jordan Love can protect the ball against a defense that leads the NFL in takeaways, there's a good chance Green Bay completes the season sweep -- leading to an even more awkward postgame handshake. Love has done pretty well with ball security this season; the Packers are 9-1-1 in games with one or fewer giveaways and 0-3 in games with multiple giveaways. Potentially getting Tremaine Edmunds back on the second level would help Chicago immensely.

I've gone back and forth too many times and my gut keeps telling me this: The Bears, their fans and the city of Chicago have long dreamt of playing for a division title late in December. Now they are. Winning the turnover battle gives the Bears their first home victory over Green Bay since Week 15 of 2018 -- and distance in the division race, to boot.

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