Wes Welker, WR, Denver Broncos: Much like Percy Harvin's arrival in Seattle, Wes Welker's signing in Denver has people thinking the slot receiver is going to put up giant numbers. This is a club with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker in tow, as well as some decent ancillary parts at the skill positions. Thus, while Welker has averaged more than 110 receptions over the last six years, my sense is that he'll be more of an 80-90 catch player for the Broncos. Viable? Yes. Second or third round pick? No.
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati didn't draft Tyler Eifert out of Notre Dame to sit around. Any way you slice it, the rookie's arrival means Jermaine Gresham is likely due for less production. Don't forget that Mohamed Sanu should be healthier and wiser in his second season. I don't see Gresham putting up 737 yards from the tight end position in 2013.
Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers:Heath Miller has been nothing but a solid player in Pittsburgh, no doubt about it. Yet, he turns 32 this season and suffered a major knee injury in Week 16 last season. At his age, and considering the severity of tearing three major ligaments, his fantasy value is certainly in question at this stage.
James Jones, WR, Green Bay Packers: Speaking of risk, James Jones carries some ... although not for the same reasons Miller does. Jones led the NFL with 14 touchdowns last year. Having watched a lot of Green Bay tape over the last two seasons, I can tell you that, when healthy, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson are the bigger threats in the Packers offense. At the end of the day, Jones only had 784 yards receiving last season. So, without the touchdowns, you're looking at a WR3, at best.
Chicago Bears D/ST: The Bears defensive coordinator of 2012, Rod Marinelli, is now coaching the defensive line in Dallas. Brian Urlacher is gone. Julius Peppers is 33. This defense is due for a letdown. That said, Chicago's D went early in our NFL.com mock draft. Someone in your league is going to move on them based on last year. That's so 2012.
Willis McGahee, RB, Denver Broncos:Willis McGahee has been a solid player in the NFL for a long time. Nonetheless, there's no getting around the fact that he turns 32 this season, and might not be with a team by the time you're reading this. Denver took Montee Ball in the 2013 draft for a reason. McGahee's key fumbles last year don't help his cause.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals didn't draft Gio Bernard early in the second round by accident. In fact, he was the first running back off the board in the 2013 draft. Green-Ellis ran for over 100 yards three straight times at one point during the season, but didn't get his first such game until Week 11. He had seven contests in which he failed to reach the 70-yard mark. The Law Firm also averaged fewer than four yards per carry.
Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks: There has been a ton of hype regarding the Seattle Seahawks and specifically Percy Harvin this offseason. While there is no question Harvin is valuable in fantasy, he's not worth the second or early third round draft pick someone in your league is going to pay for him. Moreover, the Seahawks still believe in running the football, thus I don't see Harvin catching more than 100 balls.
Mike Wallace, WR, Miami Dolphins: Just because a guy is the sexiest free agent acquisition of the offseason does not mean he's due for a huge year. Ryan Tannehill is still developing his game, and tossed only 12 touchdowns last year. While he could have a solid season, the Dolphins are expected to pound the football with Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas. Wallace is one of those players who tends to go earlier in drafts. I wouldn't move on him prior to the fifth round.
Nate Washington, WR, Tennessee Titans: I don't see Washington having much production this year, at least not in terms of fantasy value. Washington had over 1,000 yards in 2011, and was still a vital part of the offense in 2012. Yet, with Kenny Britt present, and Kendall Wright developing in his second season, it's going to be tough for Washington to put up the numbers you need for your fantasy team. Don't forget Justin Hunter, who was taken in the second round of this year's draft.