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2021 NFL Draft order: Broncos in top 10; Bears No. 13

This is a look at the first-round order for the 2021 NFL Draft heading into Week 14 of the NFL season, along with the top three needs for each team. The order is determined by record, using strength of schedule as the first tiebreaker (click here to see a full list of the draft-order tiebreakers). Keep in mind -- teams 19-32 would make the playoffs if the season ended today and are marked as PL (short for playoffs) in the order below. The draft order for playoff teams is determined by the results of postseason play.

Pick
1
New York Jets
0-12 · .583 strength of schedule

Biggest needs: QB, edge rusher, CB

This week's game: at Seahawks


Even before the call that got Gregg Williams fired, the Jets had allowed Darren Waller to become the second tight end in the Super Bowl era to post 12-plus receptions, 185-plus receiving yards and 2-plus receiving TDs in a single game. Better coaching should help, but GM Joe Douglas has to add talent to the secondary in 2021, too.

Pick
2
Jacksonville Jaguars
1-11 · .538

Biggest needs: QB, CB, OT

This week's game: vs. Titans


There are just four players who have allowed more pressures over the past two weeks than Jaguars pending free agent left tackle Cam Robinson (9), per PFF.

Pick
3
Cincinnati Bengals
2-9-1 · .538

Biggest needs: OL, edge rusher, CB

This week's game: vs. Cowboys


The Bengals have shown a willingness to invest in cornerbacks (fifth-highest payroll in the league at CB, per Over the Cap). Will they look for cheaper help via the draft or throw money at CB again in 2021 with all three of their starters at the position from Week 13 ticketed for free agency?

Pick
4
Los Angeles Chargers
3-9 · .483

Biggest needs: OL, TE, CB

This week's game: vs. Falcons


Bill Belichick has had trouble igniting his pass rush this season, but he fully exploited a weak offensive line in the Patriots' gutting of the Chargers on Sunday. No quarterback has faced more pressures since Week 7 than Justin Herbert (93), per Next Gen Stats.

Pick
5
Dallas Cowboys
3-9 · .538

Biggest needs: CB, OL, LB

This week's game: at Bengals


The Dallas linebackers weren't up to the challenge against Baltimore's running game on Tuesday night in another ugly outing. The Cowboys have now allowed a league-worst 601 rushing yards since Week 11 (the next-closest team has allowed 458).

Pick
6
Philadelphia Eagles
3-8-1 · .538

Biggest needs: OG, LB, CB

This week's game: vs. Saints


Darius Slay's declining performance paired with the looming free agency of Nickell Robey-Coleman creates a concerning situation at cornerback in Philly.

Pick
7
Carolina Panthers
4-8 · .521

Biggest needs: OL, CB, WR

This week's game: vs. Broncos


The Panthers are not going to leave the cupboard completely bare on the offensive line with four of five starters headed for free agency, but that's still a situation ripe for a rookie starter or two in 2021 even if Carolina is able to re-sign a couple veterans up front.

Pick
8
2
Atlanta Falcons
4-8 · .521

Biggest needs: Edge rusher, DB, RB

This week's game: at Chargers


MAJOR draft order implications at play in Week 14's Falcons-Chargers matchup. While we don't view quarterback as a top-three need for Atlanta right now, a loss to the sputtering Bolts could very well make landing one of the top QBs available next spring a lot more realistic (and tempting) for the team.

Pick
9
2
Miami Dolphins

PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE HOUSTON TEXANS


Texans' record: 4-8 (.569)

This week's Texans game: at Bears


See the playoff teams section for analysis of the Dolphins' needs and the bottom of this article for analysis of the Texans' needs.

Pick
10
2
Denver Broncos
4-8 · .597

Biggest needs: CB, edge rusher, QB

This week's game: at Panthers


Drew Lock has four more games to make his case for keeping his starting job in 2021, and there's much work to be done on that front. He's thrown a league-high 13 INTs since Week 3 and has the lowest passer rating (67.1) of any quarterback with 200 or more attempts this season.

Pick
11
2
Detroit Lions
5-7 · .465

Biggest needs: WR, DL, LB

This week's game: vs. Packers


There could be significant turnover on the Detroit defensive line in the months ahead as the team brings in a new coaching staff and tries to navigate the 2021 salary cap conundrum. Everson Griffen and Romeo Okwara have deals that expire this offseason and there's only one year left on the contracts for Danny Shelton and Nick Williams.

Pick
12
4
Washington Football Team

Biggest needs: QB, WR, OL

This week's game: at 49ers


The Football Team is positioned outside of the top 10 for the first time since we started tracking the 2021 NFL Draft order entering Week 5. It's won three straight games with a winnable matchup against the 49ers up next. Suddenly, the possibility of Washington ending up out of range to land one of the best QBs available next year seems very real.

Pick
13
3
Chicago Bears
5-7 · .549

Biggest needs: QB, OL, WR

This week's game: vs. Texans


Sure, the defense has sprung a leak in the last two weeks (75 points allowed), but don't let that distract from where the focus should be this offseason.

Pick
14
1
San Francisco 49ers
5-7 · .559

Biggest needs: CB, OL, edge rusher

This week's game: vs. Washington Football Team


All is not well in the San Francisco secondary, which continues to be hampered by injuries. The 49ers' pass defense was shredded by Josh Allen on Monday night, and the team doesn't have a single cornerback under contract beyond this season.

Pick
15
5
Arizona Cardinals
6-6 · .479

Biggest needs: CB, edge rusher, interior OL

This week's game: at Giants


Kyler Murray's production has plummeted since he injured his throwing shoulder in Week 11, which should only reinforce the importance of continuing to invest in the people charged with protecting him.

Pick
16
2
New England Patriots
6-6 · .500

Biggest needs: Interior OL, DL, WR

This week's game: at Rams


While it's not in our top three as we try to be patient with the two tight ends the Patriots drafted in the third round this year, there's a case to be made that the position deserves a spot high on the needs list. The Patriots are the only team without a TD catch by a TE this season and they rank second-to-last in receiving yards by tight ends (207).

Pick
17
Las Vegas Raiders
7-5 · .542

Biggest needs: DT, OL, edge rusher

This week's game: vs. Colts


The Raiders were gashed for 206 yards by the Jets' rush offense on Sunday and they have allowed the third-most rushing yards in the league over the past three games. Look no further than the interior D-line for a big part of the problem (although certainly not the only one). "We have to get off blocks better. We have to be better at the point of attack. We have to tackle better. We have to do a lot better job coaching. That's an understatement," said Jon Gruden of Las Vegas’ run defense.

Pick
18
Baltimore Ravens
7-5 · .569

Biggest needs: WR, OL, edge rusher

This week's game: at Browns


Baltimore traded for Yannick Ngakoue at midseason to spark the pass rush, but he hasn't done it to this point. The free-agent-to-be has one sack on 161 pass rush snaps for the Ravens, per Next Gen Stats.

Pick
PL
New York Giants
5-7 · .462

Biggest needs: Edge rusher, CB, OT

This week's game: vs. Cardinals


The Giants are relying on journeyman Jabaal Sheard to spark their edge rush, which is working right now but doesn't seem sustainable.

Pick
PL
7
Minnesota Vikings
6-6 · .472

Biggest needs: OL, DT, edge rusher

This week's game: at Buccaneers


Minnesota played the Cowboys, Panthers and Jaguars in the past three weeks, none of whom rank in the top half of the league in sacks. Yet, Kirk Cousins was pressured at the highest rate of any QB in the league over that span (38.9 percent), a troubling stat for Mike Zimmer's O-line.

Pick
PL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7-5 · .556

Biggest needs: Edge rusher, DT, WR

This week's game: vs. Vikings


One of the most disturbing trends from the Bucs' second-half downturn has been the nosediving pass rush. From Weeks 1-8, Tampa Bay had a pressure rate of 32.5 percent (second in the league). From Weeks 9-12 (the Bucs were on bye in Week 13), Todd Bowles' defense produced a pressure rate of just 18.3 percent (30th in NFL).

Pick
PL
Miami Dolphins
8-4 · .365

Biggest needs: WR, ILB, interior OL

This week's game: vs. Chiefs


Brian Flores needs better run blocking, especially from the guard position, to give his young QB an improved ground game in 2021.

Pick
PL
Indianapolis Colts
8-4 · .448

Biggest needs: QB, CB, edge rusher

This week's game: at Raiders


Philip Rivers, who turned 39 years old on Monday, is doing heroic work playing through a foot injury that will likely require surgery after the season. The idea that the Colts' 2021 starter at QB isn't currently on the roster is gaining steam, though.

PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE LOS ANGELES RAMS


Rams' record: 8-4 (.483)

This week's Rams game: vs. Patriots


See Pick No. 2 for analysis of the Jaguars' needs and the bottom of this article for analysis of the Rams' needs.

Pick
PL
New York Jets

PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE SEATTLE SEAHAWKS


Seahawks' record: 8-4 (.483)

This week's Seahawks game: vs. Jets


See Pick No. 1 for analysis of the Jets' needs and the bottom of this article for analysis of the Seahawks' needs.

Pick
PL
Tennessee Titans
8-4 · .517

Biggest needs: Edge rusher, WR, interior DL

This week's game: at Jaguars


Tight end remains on the needs radar with Jonnu Smith, Geoff Swaim and MyCole Pruitt in the final year of their deals, but we're giving the interior DL a spin on the list this week. Tennessee could lose two starters at the position, as both DaQuan Jones and Jack Crawford are pending free agents.

Pick
PL
Cleveland Browns
9-3 · .434

Biggest needs: LB, CB, edge rusher

This week's game: vs. Ravens


Even in victory (and with a healthy Myles Garrett), this Browns pass defense can't be trusted. 

Pick
PL
Green Bay Packers
9-3 · .448

Biggest needs: WR, CB, interior OL

This week's game: at Lions


There was hope early this season that Allen Lazard was stepping up to become the playmaking complement to Davante Adams that the Packers havent been able to find at wide receiver. However, that talk cooled after he missed six games due to a core muscle injury. Lazard has just nine catches for 91 yards in three games since returning, but he did make a nice 31-yard grab on Sunday.

Pick
PL
Buffalo Bills
9-3 · .486

Biggest needs: Edge rusher, OL, CB

This week's game: vs. Steelers


Buffalo hit 49ers QB Nick Mullens seven times on Monday night, but only one of those hits was credited to a defensive end and the Bills didn't record a sack. They're going to need more from their edge rushers next week, when they'll face one of the best pass-protecting units in the league.

Pick
PL
New Orleans Saints
10-2 · .444

Biggest needs: DL, DB, WR

This week's game: at Eagles


Taysom Hill had not thrown a TD pass in his NFL career prior to Sunday, so no, he hasn't put every doubt to rest about his ability as a QB1. That said, we've seen enough to move the position off the needs list for now. It's replaced by wide receiver, with Emmanuel Sanders and Tre'Quan Smith only a year away from free agency.

Pick
PL
Pittsburgh Steelers
11-1 · .410

Biggest needs: OT, edge rusher, CB

This week's game: at Bills


It's not going to crack the top three needs here because the Steelers are likely to have holes at higher-value positions, but running back is making a strong push for the No. 4 spot on the list. James Conner is due to hit the market this offseason, and Pittsburgh has managed just 89 yards (2.6 per carry) in the last two weeks while he's been on the reserve/COVID-19 list.

Pick
PL
Kansas City Chiefs
11-1 · .431

Biggest needs: Interior OL, WR, edge rusher

This week's game: at Dolphins


Kansas City keeps winning, but we understand if Chiefs fans are itching to see more pass-rush production. The team has a league-low one sack since Week 11.

TEAMS WITHOUT A FIRST-ROUND PICK

TRADED FIRST-ROUND PICK TO THE MIAMI DOLPHINS


Biggest needs: WR, CB, edge rusher

This week's game: at Bears


There will be needs at every level of a defense on pace to hit franchise worsts in total defense (406.3 yards per game), rushing defense (150.9 YPG) and passer rating (106.6).

TRADED FIRST-ROUND PICK TO THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS


Biggest needs: OL, edge rusher, LB

This week's game: vs. Patriots


As we enter the final quarter of the season, the Rams don't have a single inside linebacker with a grade that ranks inside PFF's top 75 players at the position.

TRADED FIRST-ROUND PICK TO THE NEW YORK JETS


Biggest needs: OL, CB, edge rusher

This week's game: vs. Jets


Since selecting Russell Wilson in 2012, the Seahawks have spent their top draft pick on an offensive lineman only once and that player (Germain Ifedi, 2016) is no longer on the team. That fact made it a little less surprising to see Seattle's lack of depth up front on display in a loss to the Giants.

Follow Dan Parr on Twitter.

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