Two weeks in the books, 15 more to go! We're on to Week 3 ... and it's packed with storylines. To better understand and decipher those storylines, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.
Here are four of those storylines, with all the relevant NFL Pro insights and the fantasy fallout we can expect this weekend.
Philly passing offense unlikely to leave nest vs. Rams
The Eagles are 2-0 after winning low-scoring, one-possession games against both the Cowboys and Chiefs. But so far, their passing attack has been less than stagnant. They have totaled 253 passing yards across two games. There are 11 teams that have averaged more yards per game than Philly has in total. On the bright side, this is more a volume issue -- 58 dropbacks are fifth-fewest in the league -- than an efficiency issue -- their 9.4% CPOE is third-highest in the league. However, they also haven't scored a single passing touchdown through two weeks, and they've allowed the eighth-highest pressure rate (39.7%), so, it's not all sunny in Philadelphia. Notably, Jalen Hurts is averaging just 5.6 air yards per attempt, second-fewest in the league and by far the lowest mark of his career. He averaged 8+ air yards per attempt in each of his previous five seasons. The lack of a passing game has hurt his fantasy upside as he's currently the QB14, and that of both A.J. Brown (WR91) and DeVonta Smith (WR66).
Unfortunately, Week 3 does not bring much of a "get-right" game, as the Rams have NFL Pro's fourth-most effective pass defense, with its seventh-highest QB pressure rate (41.3%) through two weeks. Thanks to Byron Young, Jared Verse, Kobie Turner and others, the Rams have recorded the third-highest sack rate in the league (10.7%), while blitzing at the eighth-lowest rate. When Hurts has not been blitzed this year, he's completed 81.5% of his passes but averaged just 7.2 yards per completion. The Eagles will never be the NFL's pass-happiest offense, but no team has won 10+ games in a season while averaging fewer than 180 passing yards per game since the 2005 Bears. Philly will need to get something going through the air … it just might not be this week.
Fantasy Fallout: You're never benching Jalen Hurts, as he offers a start-worthy floor with his legs alone, but just know that he's not producing like a top-five fantasy QB right now. As for his receivers, it's pretty difficult to trust any of them in Week 3: consider starting breakouts like Rome Odunze, Tetairoa McMillan and Emeka Egbuka instead.
Bears D could open door for a Cowboys rodeo
After two weeks, the Bears pass defense is ranked 29th in NFL Pro's overall efficiency, 29th in pressure rate, 30th in defensive efficiency with pressure and dead last in defensive efficiency against play action and intermediate passing. In summary: They have been very bad. Chicago has allowed the fourth-highest CPOE (9.1%) and third-highest success rate (54.7%) in the league, and they've allowed a 146.4 passer rating on downfield passes (10+ air yards), with 17.2 yards per attempt, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. After keeping J.J. McCarthy in check for the first three quarters of his NFL debut, the Bears defense has given up 421 yards and seven touchdowns over their last five quarters of football. To make matters worse, their best cornerback (by far), Jaylon Johnson, is now out indefinitely with a groin injury. Johnson is the only Bears defender allowing a passer rating lower than 80 as the nearest defender, and fellow CB Tyrique Stevenson has allowed an absurd 156.3 passer rating on eight targets (six catches, 126 yards and a TD). Chicago has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks (56.18), but they've also allowed an absurd 1.04 fantasy points per play to the position, roughly 37% more than the next-most so far (the Dolphins) and more than double the league average (0.45).
On Sunday, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and Co. will arrive in the Windy City off a Week 2 game with 361 passing yards on 52 attempts. There are 19 players with 10+ targets averaging 12+ air yards per target. Lamb and Pickens are two of them and sport the second- and fifth-highest catch rates over expected among that group. While most of Prescott's numbers are middle-of-the-road after a slow start against Philly, his 9.3% CPOE is fifth-highest among qualified QBs. Plus, he's faced pressure on 33 dropbacks, fifth-most in the league, with a starting schedule that featured the Eagles and Giants pass rushes. With a much softer matchup against the Chicago defense, Prescott could turn in one of the top fantasy weeks at the position.
Fantasy Fallout: Do whatever you can to start Prescott, Lamb, Pickens and even Jake Ferguson in Week 3. It might not be a bad idea to try to trade for one or two of them before Sunday. Prescott in particular could go from a perceived QB2 to a higher-tier QB1.
Henry seeks redemption vs. Lions run D
When a run defense earns an NFL Pro matchup advantage against the Baltimore Ravens, it's eye-catching. In particular, the Lions have a five-star advantage on rushes with stacked boxes and a four-star advantage on rushes inside the tackles. The good news for the Ravens: Their inside run rate of 30.0% is second-lowest in the league. The bad news: The Lions are also very good on rushes outside the tackles (ninth in NFL Pro's defensive efficiency). And they're also extremely good on rushes with light boxes (second in efficiency). They've only allowed one 100-yard rusher since the start of 2024 (James Cook) and two since the start of 2023 (also Justin Fields). Only six running backs have topped 15+ PPR fantasy points against Detroit since the start of last season, and four of them had multiple receptions.
Meanwhile, as anyone with Derrick Henry on their roster knows, the King was incredibly disappointing in Week 2 with 23 yards on 11 carries for just 2.3 fantasy points.Henry's performance last Sunday was perhaps the most shockingly poor across all of fantasy after his 29-point season opener. Will he bounce back against a tough defensive unit? Well, he's never posted single-digit fantasy games back-to-back as a Raven, and only did it twice in his last two years in Tennessee (on a much less consistent offense). While Henry disappeared a bit last week, Baltimore still scored 41 points. Just by the laws of regression to the mean, Henry will be better in Week 3. The question is how much better he can be against Dan Campbell's defense.
Fantasy Fallout: Even after last week's disaster, you're not benching Derrick Henry in fantasy. This breakdown is to help set the temperature heading into the weekend: Henry will be better than he was in Week 2, but we might not see a 150-yard, 20-fantasy point performance on Monday night. Play him in your season-long leagues -- and manage expectations -- but be wary in daily lineups.
Breakout time for struggling rookie RBs?
Unfortunately, the top-drafted rookie running backs have been rather lackluster through two weeks. No. 6 overall pick Ashton Jeanty is the RB27, No. 22 overall pick Omarion Hampton is the RB47. Second-rounders TreVeyon Henderson and RJ Harvey are outside the top 30, as well. All four were picked in the first five rounds of most fantasy drafts, and none of the four have returned value on those picks yet. Jeanty, Hampton and Henderson played a lower percentage of snaps in Week 2 than they did in Week 1, while Harvey only increased from 31.0% to 31.5% of snaps. Jeanty, Hampton and Henderson have also averaged negative rush yards over expected per carry with Jeanty (-1.5) and Hampton (-1.3) ranking near the bottom of the league. (On that note, Harvey has averaged 2.9 RYOE/carry, which is near the very top of the league and suggests he might be closest to a breakout).
To make matters even tougher heading into Week 3, the matchups for the highest-drafted rookie backs -- Jeanty and Hampton -- are not encouraging. Jeanty faces a Commanders defense that ranks eighth in NFL Pro's defensive rushing efficiency, and Hampton gets a Broncos squad that ranks seventh. Henderson against the Steelers (21st) and Harvey against the Chargers (25th) offer slightly more hope, but both would likely need to crack 50% of the snaps to be reliably valuable for fantasy. Sometime soon, at least one of these rookies is going to break out in a big way … but it might not happen in September.
Fantasy Fallout: Given where you drafted Ashton Jeanty, you probably can't bench him, even if you hit on guys like Travis Etienne and Javonte Williams. However, you can send the other three to the waiting room until we see something to inspire confidence. All three are somewhere in the RB3-RB4 range in the rankings.
