Ten weeks in the books, seven more to go! We're on to Week 11 … and it's packed with storylines. To better understand and decipher them, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.
Here are four of those storylines, with all the relevant NFL Pro insights and the fantasy fallout we can expect this weekend.
Josh Allen uniquely armed to counter Buccaneers' high-octane pass rush
Thanks in large part to the sixth-highest blitz rate in the NFL this season (34.2%), the Buccaneers rank second in pressure rate (40.5%), behind only the Broncos. However, they're ranked 25th in NFL Pro's pass defense efficiency with pressure, surrendering the sixth-highest passer rating and the fifth-highest completion rate with pressure on the season. Drake Maye just tagged them for 167 yards, one TD, a 105.4 passer rating and a whopping 12.8 yards per attempt under pressure in the 28-23 Patriots win on Sunday.
Enter Josh Allen, whose +5.6 completion percentage over expectation and 36.8% success rate under pressure are both top seven among qualified quarterbacks. But more importantly, his 12.6% scramble rate against pressure ranks second highest, behind only Jayden Daniels. Allen leads the NFL with 232 total scramble yards under pressure — 130 passing and 102 rushing — and is among the most successful quarterbacks on the move and outside the pocket in the league. Allen tends to avoid pressure in general, but when it comes, he becomes that much more dangerous, which is why the Bills rank fourth in NFL Pro's passing offense efficiency against pressure. The Bucs might get to him often, but it might be to their detriment if Allen continues his playmaking ways in Week 11.
Fantasy Fallout: Josh Allen is one of the easiest starts in fantasy, so you don't need my advice on that front. It is also worth noting that Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid will likely get a boost if Allen turns to the quick game to avoid Tampa Bay's blitzes, so both are slightly more startable in Week 11.
Jaylen Warren's RB1 upside against the hapless Bengals defense
To say that Cincinnati's defense has struggled against the run might be a bit of an understatement. They're 31st in NFL Pro's rushing defense efficiency and are bottom two in the metric against designed runs, rushing under center, rushing both inside and outside the tackles, and rushing against light boxes. They've allowed 141.1 rushing yards per game to running backs (most in the league by more than 20 YPG), as well as 5.5 yards per carry, 30 runs of 10+ yards and 13 scrimmage touchdowns (more than every team except the Titans).
The last time Jaylen Warren met this defense, in Week 7, he racked up 127 yards on 16 carries and 31 additional receiving yards on four catches. It marked a season-high 19.8 fantasy points for Warren, despite the fact that he didn't score a touchdown. Warren totaled 63 rushing yards over expected in that game — he hasn't hit 20 RYOE in any other contest this year — and logged four explosive runs and forced six missed tackles. Needless to say, this is the best matchup on Warren's schedule, and should he find the end zone in the rematch, he has top-of-RB1 upside this Sunday.
Fantasy Fallout: Warren typically slots in as a low-end RB2 in the rankings, but in this matchup he should be elevated well into the top 15 … and could easily finish top five. Also, as a special bonus, Pat Freiermuth is a huge sleeper tight end against this defense — he also had his best game of the year against Cincy in Week 7.
Matthew Stafford and Rams' short game against Seattle's zone-heavy secondary
Somewhat quietly, Matthew Stafford has been the best passer in the NFL this season and has the Rams ranked first overall in NFL Pro's overall passing efficiency. Stafford leads the NFL with 25 touchdown passes and he's been even better after a slow first three weeks coming off back issues from the preseason. Since Week 4, Stafford has logged a 122.0 passer rating and 0.29 EPA/dropback that each trail only Sam Darnold among qualified passers, as well as a 55.1% success rate that ranks third behind Darnold and Patrick Mahomes. He's currently on a historic three-game streak with at least four touchdown passes and zero interceptions (never been done before) and has thrown at least three TDs in five of his last six games.
Notably, since Week 4, Stafford has specifically thrown 13 touchdowns and zero picks on short passes — no other player has more than eight such TDs — with a monster 131.4 passer rating and 68.6% success rate. And that has been Seattle's weakness this year: they rank 30th in NFL Pro's passing defensive efficiency on short passes, with the third-highest EPA/dropback allowed (0.20), behind only the Bengals and Commanders. They just got shredded for 181 yards and two TDs on passes of fewer than 10 air yards … by Jacoby Brissett. Also, only four teams play zone coverage at a higher rate than Seattle, and Stafford has a 100.4 passer rating with 8.2 yards per attempt against zone coverage.
Fantasy Fallout: Matthew Stafford should be a must-start fantasy play regardless, but he has an opportunity to dice up the Seahawks where they're weakest in this matchup. Also, don't be surprised if Kyren Williams and even Tyler Higbee have good days receiving in the short area, while Puka Nacua and Davante Adams deal with Seattle's outside corners.
Saquon Barkley draws another tough matchup against Detroit's front
Saquon Barkley has had five matchups so far this season against teams allowing bottom-half-of-the-league fantasy points to running backs — the Chiefs, Rams, Broncos, Vikings and Packers. In those five games, Barkley has averaged just 53.6 rushing yards and 12.6 fantasy points, with just one rushing touchdown. Two of those games were saved by receiving production — against the Broncos back in Week 5 and Green Bay on Monday night (thanks to one 41-yard catch) — otherwise it would be an absolute mess of fantasy duds. Overall, he's logged an explosive run on just 10.1% of carries and posted a 34.9% success rate this season, both down from his marks of 13.3% and 44.1% respectively in 2024.
Now, Barkley draws another tough matchup against Detroit, who's allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the position, with just 71.8 rushing yards per game surrendered to running backs. The Lions rank eighth in NFL Pro's rushing defense efficiency and are particularly effective against rushing out of shotgun (which Philly does at an above average rate). The only running back to have an excellent fantasy day against Detroit this year was Quinshon Judkins back in Week 4 — Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, D'Andre Swift and several others have come up short of 15 fantasy points in the matchup. Barkley's one shot at RB1 upside might be the receiving game, but if he falls short there, it's hard to imagine the star running back putting up big numbers on Sunday night.
Fantasy Fallout: This might sound crazy, but some managers might be able to bench Saquon Barkley this week. If you have another star RB and someone like Rico Dowdle, Javonte Williams, Quinshon Judkins or even Jaylen Warren (see above), Barkley could be your third-best option in Week 11.
