Fifteen weeks in the books, two more to go — and it's the fantasy semifinals (for most of us)! To better understand and decipher the storylines of the week, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.
Here are four of the biggest insights to know, with all the relevant NFL Pro context and the fantasy fallout we can expect!
Red-hot Rams running back duo against Seattle's top-ranked run defense
For three straight weeks, both Kyren Williams and Blake Corum have scored 13+ fantasy points. Over that span, Williams has totaled 257 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns on 44 touches (52.7 fantasy points), while Corum has logged 283 yards and four touchdowns on 31 touches (53.3 fantasy points). Williams has played 56.7% of the snaps, to Corum's 37.4%, so it hasn't quite been a 50-50 volume split, but Corum's explosiveness and efficiency have made him an equally valuable fantasy play over that span. At this point, the reality is that Williams has dropped from high-end to low-end RB1 range, while Corum has elevated from bench asset to weekly starter, while HC Sean McVay and OC Mike LaFleur look to "keep Kyren fresh" for the playoffs.
However, both are going to be hard-pressed for fantasy points against the Seahawks front. The Seahawks currently boast NFL Pro's number one overall rushing defense and are top 10 in all nine rushing categories Pro evaluates, outside of QB scrambles. They're also NFL Pro's top defense against outside runs and designed runs and have allowed just four rushing touchdowns to running backs, second fewest in the league … behind only the Rams. The last two weeks, they held Bijan Robinson to 9.4 fantasy points and Jonathan Taylor to 13.1 — and while Williams himself was the last back with a strong outing against Seattle, that came in Week 11 before the Corum breakout. With both backs splitting touches against a very tough opponent, the ceilings might be significantly lowered this Thursday night.
Fantasy Fallout: Most people are still starting Williams as an RB2, and potentially flexing Corum as well, but be aware that they'll be fighting for fantasy value both with each other and with the Seattle defense. If you have multiple better options, one or both of the Rams could see the bench in the semifinals.
Bryce Young and the Panthers offense against the Buccaneers blitz-heavy pass rush
Somewhat quietly, Bryce Young has put together a series of stream-worthy starts the last month or so. He's averaged 19.51 fantasy points per game over his last four contests, and while his floor has been low in tougher matchups, his ceiling has elevated to as high as 31.82 points (against Atlanta). To add to the deliberation, the Buccaneers have been incredibly soft against quarterbacks lately, surrendering 18+ fantasy points to the last six starters they've faced, including a combined 48.18 by Tyler Shough and Kirk Cousins the last two weeks. In fact, since Week 10, the only pass defenses surrendering a higher success rate than Tampa Bay's 51.4% are the Cardinals and Commanders. So can you stream Young in a theoretically good matchup, and can you play the rest of the Carolina offense as well?
The major concern would be Young's ability to diagnose and dissect Tampa Bay's pass rush. Todd Bowles' defense blitzes at the fourth-highest rate in the league (34.6% of dropbacks) and Young's Panthers currently own NFL Pro's fifth-worst efficiency rating against the blitz. The Carolina QB has thrown six TDs to five INTs against the blitz this season, with a 61.2% completion rate, a 79.7 passer rating and -0.30 EPA/dropback. All that said, the Bucs aren't particularly efficient when blitzing — they're NFL Pro's 22nd-ranked pass defense on such dropbacks — and Young has been much better against a standard pass rush. This has the makings of one of Young's up days, but those are prone to flip without much warning and divisional rivals often incite unpredictable results.
Fantasy Fallout: You should not be forcing Young into lineups, even in this "good" matchup, but he is a viable streamer or a strong 2QB-league option. Tetairoa McMillan falls into a similar bucket, as he's been inconsistent and low-upside lately: you can start him as a WR2 in a pinch, but can also justifiably get away for someone like DK Metcalf or Jauan Jennings. And the question marks remain at running back, where Carolina appears to be riding the hot-hand between Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard — they're likely a low-end RB2 and low-end RB3, respectively.
Trevor Lawrence on fire for a matchup with the ice-cold Broncos defense
After a fourth straight game with multiple passing touchdowns — and this one with five and a rushing score to boot — Trevor Lawrence is currently on the hottest stretch of his career. He's scored 17+ fantasy points in each of those four consecutive games and averaged 25.6 points per game over that stretch, thanks in large part to his 44.3-point explosion on Sunday. Amid this streak, Lawrence is also averaging 8.9 yards and 0.86 fantasy points per pass attempt, with a 52.6% success rate and 0.24 EPA/dropback (all top two among qualified passers).
But can he maintain his hot streak against the ravenous Broncos defense? Denver is currently NFL Pro's fifth-best overall passing defense and hold the matchup advantage with Jacksonville in 10 of the 12 passing metrics Pro measures each week. The only QB to post a solid fantasy day against Denver over the last two months was, oddly, Marcus Mariota with this 55 rushing yards. They have logged a 40.5% pressure rate in 2025, second-highest in the league, and Lawrence has not particularly thrived against pressure, with just five TDs, three INTs and a 48.7% completion rate on the year. And while he's gone three straight games without throwing a pick, he had thrown six over the prior four contests. In nearly any other matchup, Lawrence might be a locked-and-loaded streamer, considering his recent play. Against Denver … not so much.
Fantasy Fallout: Instead of being a strong stream in Week 16, Lawrence is a mid-range QB1 with a very low floor — think his single-digit outings against Houston … both of them.
A struggling Lamar Jackson takes on the Patriots defense
For upwards of six weeks now, Lamar Jackson has not been playing up to his typical standards. Since Week 10, he's thrown just four touchdowns to five interceptions, has rushed for just 25.5 yards per game and hasn't hit 250 passing yards once. His 74.7 passer rating over that span is fourth-worst among qualified passers and his -9.5% completion rate over expected is third-worst, ahead of only Caleb Williams and Justin Fields. His rushing touchdown in Week 14 elevated an otherwise lackluster day just over 20 fantasy points, but he's scored fewer than 15 in his other four outings since mid-November. Believe it or not, Jackson is the QB21 since Week 11, behind such names as Shedeur Sanders, Tyler Shough and Cam Ward, among others.
And things aren't looking up in the fantasy semifinals. Jackson and the Ravens face a Patriots defense that currently ranks 12th in overall defensive passing efficiency, but specifically third against short passes, sixth without pressure and ninth on quick throws. Josh Allen just tagged them for 24.52 fantasy points, but he's Josh Allen (playing like Josh Allen). New England's held four straight QBs to fewer than 200 passing yards, and had held three straight to just one passing touchdown each before facing Allen. Jackson will almost certainly need to throw more next Sunday night than he did last Sunday against Cincinnati (12 attempts), but his efficiency will need to see a major bounce-back to return the upside we expect from last year's QB1.
Fantasy Fallout: You don't have to sit Jackson — and doing so in the fantasy playoffs would be admittedly bold — but there are several streamers that have a legitimate shot at outscoring him in Week 16. Names like Jacoby Brissett, Brock Purdy and Jordan Love come to mind … those guys have outscored Jackson by 9.13, 6.66 and 5.91 fantasy points per game, respectively, since Week 11.
