The National Football League has a strength of schedule formula that's simple to understand -- take the opponent's records from the previous season, add up the wins and losses and calculate a percentage. My fantasy points allowed (FPA) rating is similar. It uses statistics (fantasy points) surrendered by opponents the previous year against a single position both at home and on the road instead of team records. For example, the Jacksonville Jaguars allowed an average of 25.95 fantasy points per home game to running backs in 2012. As a result, any signal-caller that faces them in Jacksonville this season is rewarded 25.95 points. The bigger the point total, the easier the schedule.
These ratings are not to be confused with player rankings and are not the be-all, end-all in determining a player's stock. However, owners should use them when picking between players with similar value and looking for potential sleepers.
1. Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (19.26 points):
Home:Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, San Diego Chargers
Away:Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts
2013 Outlook: With Reggie Bush now out of the mix, Miller (71st in 2012) is the favorite to start and will face the easiest schedule among running backs based on our FPA rating. The Fins will play in 14 games against teams that gave up 17-plus fantasy points to running backs last season, and only one (Buccaneers) that allowed fewer than 14 points. If Miller is the main man, this slate of games makes him a more attractive sleeper running back in 2013 fantasy drafts.
2. Arian Foster, Houston Texans (18.65 points):
Home:Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots
Away:Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens
2013 Outlook: As if you need another reason to take Foster (3rd), he has the second-easiest schedule for running backs. The superstar out of Tennessee will play in 10 games against teams that allowed 17-plus fantasy points per game to runners last season. Furthermore, six of those games are against teams that surrendered more than 20 points per game. Foster also plays in just three contests against teams that allowed fewer than 14 fantasy points to the position in 2012.
3. Montee Ball, Denver Broncos (18.60 points):
Home:Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Baltimore Ravens
Away:Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, New England Patriots
2013 Outlook: Whether it's Ball, Ronnie Hillman or Knowshon Moreno, the eventual No. 1 runner in Denver will have quite a nice advantage based on schedule. Playing against the AFC West is huge, and other games versus the Jaguars, Colts, Titans and Cowboys will just add to the value of the runner who earns the most prominent role during training camp. All of those teams allowed at least 19.99 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs overall last season.
4. Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons (18.51 points):
Home:Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Washington Redskins
Away:Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Green Bay Packers
2013 Outlook: Jackson (16th), who has rushed for 1,000-plus yards in eight straight seasons, will be in a nice position to succeed as a member of the Falcons. He'll have a prominent backfield role and a favorable schedule, as the Falcons have 11 contests against teams that surrendered 17-plus fantasy points to running backs last season. That includes seven games against teams that allowed 20 or more points to the position, so Jackson will be in a great spot to succeed.
5. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers (18.44 points):
Home:Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, New York Giants
Away:Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings
2013 Outlook: This backfield is one of the more crowded in the league, as Jonathan Stewart (53rd), Williams and Mike Tolbert all played roles in 2012. Whatever runner sees the biggest backfield role (likely Williams with Stewart on PUP) will have the advantage of a good schedule, as the Panthers will play 11 games against opponents that allowed an average of 17-plus fantasy points to runners in 2012. Neither Stewart nor Williams should be more than a flex starter.
6. Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks (18.43 points):
Home:Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Minnesota Vikings
Away:Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New York Giants
2013 Outlook: Lynch (4th) has posted top-five fantasy point totals among running backs in each of the last two seasons, so the fact that he has a favorable set of games for 2013 just makes him more valuable. The veteran back will play nine contests against teams that gave up 17-plus fantasy points per game to runners in 2012. A surefire top-five overall pick, Lynch will square off against the Saints, Panthers, Colts, Jaguars and Titans among his more vulnerable opponents.
7. Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers (18..33 points):
Home:Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans
Away:Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Oakland Raiders
2013 Outlook: Bell's injury has now been labeled as a bad foot sprain by the team. He avoided the Lisfranc injury, but the Steelers have given no timetable for his return. Some estimations have him returning sometime in October and will likely be a solid option when he does return. In the mean time, the Steelers will have a very crowded backdield as Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer will share the workload with the newcomer Felix Jones, who was acquired in a trade with the Eagles.
8. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (18.29 points):
Home:Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles
Away:Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Detroit Lions
2013 Outlook: The "Muscle Hamster" (2nd) came out of nowhere to produce the second-most fantasy points among running backs during his rookie campaign. Can he do it again? That remains to be seen, but he will have the advantage of playing a nice set of games. Martin will have nine games with teams that gave up 17-plus fantasy points to backs last season, including the Panthers (2), Saints (2) and Bills. The Boise State product is a surefire first rounder in most 2013 drafts.
9. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (18.23 points):
Home:Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New Orleans Saints
Away:Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, St. Louis Rams
2013 Outlook: Forte (12th) had an up-and-down 2012 season, but he still finished with 44 receptions and close to 1,500 scrimmage yards. A valuable No. 2 fantasy runner, he will play 11 games against teams that allowed 17-plus points to backs last season. That list includes the Packers (2), Saints, Ravens, Rams and Browns. Even with veteran bruiser Michael Bush in the backfield mix, Forte should still be selected in one of the first four rounds in most 2013 fantasy leagues.
10. Daryl Richardson, St. Louis Rams (18.11 points):
Home:Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Chicago Bears
Away:Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys
2013 Outlook:Â Daryl Richardson has been named the starter, but he will share carries with Zac Stacy and Isaiah Pead now that Steven Jackson now a member of the Falcons. While going up against the Niners and Seahawks a total of four times is difficult, Richardson or Pead has scheduled games against eight teams that gave up 17-plus fantasy points to runners in 2013. Of those eight squads, six surrendered an average of more than 20 points per game. This is definitely a competition to monitor in camp.
11. Chris Ivory, New York Jets (18.08 points):
Home:Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Oakland Raiders
Away:Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans
2013 Outlook: Ivory (72nd), a talented offseason acquisition, is the favorite for the top spot on the team's depth chart entering training camp. Assuming he's the main man, Ivory will play nine games against teams that surrendered 17 or more fantasy points per game to running backs in 2012. That includes favorable opponents like the Bills (2), Browns, Saints, Raiders, Falcons and Panthers. He has the tools to develop into a rock-solid No. 2 fantasy runner.
12. C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills (18.06 points):
Home:Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Kansas City Chiefs
Away:Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars
2013 Outlook: Spiller (7th) is coming off his best statistical season with over 1,700 scrimmage yards and eight total touchdowns. The schedule should benefit him as well, as Spiller will play a total of 12 games against teams that allowed 17-plus fantasy points to runners in 2012. Furthermore, only one opponent gave up fewer than 14 points to the position. Even with talented veteran Fred Jackson in the backfield rotation, Spiller is still a legitimate first-rounder this year.
13. Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns (17.69 points):
Home:Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars
Away:Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs
2013 Outlook: Richardson's (9th) 2012 schedule wasn't favorable on paper, but he still managed to score 12 touchdowns while finishing ninth among runners in fantasy football. The slate is more favorable in 2013, as the Browns will play games against nine teams that allowed 17 or more fantasy points to runners last season. Furthermore, six of those squads allowed an average of more than 19 points per game. Richardson will be off the board in the first round in most drafts.
14. Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers (17.66 points):
Home:Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals
Away:Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Miami Dolphins
2013 Outlook: Mathews (30th), who suffered more broken clavicles (2) than he scored touchdowns (1) last season, is going to be tough to trust as more than a low-end No. 2 fantasy back, regardless of the schedule. He has the advantage of going up against the Chiefs (2) and Raiders (2), and other contests against the Colts, Cowboys, Jaguars and Titans look favorable. Of course, Mathews will need to stay on the field and out of the trainer's room to take full advantage.
15. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (17.65 points):
Home:Arizona Cardinals, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers
Away:Arizona Cardinals, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins
2013 Outlook: Gore (10th) was a great draft bargain in 2012, finishing among the 10 best runners in fantasy football. Whether he can duplicate that success at the age of 30 remains to be seen, but he should benefit from a schedule that has 10 games against teams that allowed 17-plus fantasy points to runners last season. Unless we hear word that Gore will split carries, it will be tough to pass on him as a No. 2 fantasy runner somewhere in the early to middle rounds.
16. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs (17.59 points):
Home:Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Cleveland Browns
Away:Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Buffalo Bills
2013 Outlook: Despite posting a few bad stat lines, Charles (8th) still rushed for over 1,500 yards in his first season back from a major knee reconstruction. He'll be a surefire first-round pick in 2013 drafts, and the presence of new coach Andy Reid makes him more valuable in PPR leagues. Charles will have nine games against teams that gave up an average of more than 17 fantasy points to runners, so more than half of his schedule is favorable on paper.
17. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders (17.56 points):
Home:Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Pittsburgh Steelers
Away:Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, New York Jets
2013 Outlook: Another season, another injury for McFadden (28th). The veteran missed four games in 2012 and has averaged 11.4 games during his NFL career, so there isn't a bigger draft risk at running back. There are some things to like about his schedule, though, as McFadden will face the Chiefs (2), Titans, Cowboys, Colts and Jets in 2013. However, he also has just six games against teams that gave up more than 17 fantasy points per game to runners last season.
T-18. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars (17.49 points):
Home:Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills
Away:Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Cleveland Browns
2013 Outlook: Jones-Drew (50th) missed most of the 2012 season due to foot ailment that required a surgical procedure to repair. Barring any setbacks, he should be fine for the start of the 2013 campaign. The former fantasy superstar will remain a risk-reward pick, and a schedule that includes seven games against teams that gave up 17-plus fantasy points to runners last season won't improve or hurt his value. Look for "Pocket Hercules" to be a second- or third-rounder.
T-18. Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts (17.49 points)
Home:Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins
Away:Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals
2013 Outlook: Bradshaw (18th) has some definite statistical potential entering his new situation in Indianapolis, and his stock will do nothing but rise if he earns a featured role. With that being said, his schedule includes just seven games versus teams that allowed 17-plus fantasy points per game to backs in 2012. Bradshaw also faces some tough units like the Seahawks, 49ers and Broncos, so don't draft him as more than a potential No. 2 back in most 10- and 12-team leagues.
20. Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots (17.39 points):
Home:Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos
Away:Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans
2013 Outlook: One of the better sleepers of 2012, Ridley (11th) rushed for over 1,200 yards and scored 12 touchdowns as the main backfield option in New England. Facing the AFC North, along with the Buccaneers and Broncos, drags down Ridley's FPA rating for next season. However, he will also play in eight games against teams that gave up an average of over 17 fantasy points to runners in 2012. Owners should target Ridley in the second or third round as a No. 2 back.
21. Darren Sproles, New Orleans Saints (17.34 points):
Home:Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys
Away:Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Chicago Bears
2013 Outlook: Sproles (22nd) saw his overall fantasy totals decline last season, but he's still the most valuable runner in New Orleans. The veteran has nine games against teams that allowed 17 or more fantasy points per game to opposing backs in 2012, but Sproles also has five contests against teams that surrendered fewer than 16 points. Overall, he'll be a viable flex starter in standard leagues with added value in those formats that also reward points for receptions.
22. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans (17.20 points):
Home:Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets
Away:Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers
2013 Outlook: Johnson (13th) had a roller coaster ride of a season in the stat sheets, but he did rush for 1,200-plus yards for the fourth time in his pro career. With that being said, he's no longer an elite fantasy back. The 2013 schedule isn't going to improve his stock, nor will the presence of Shonn Greene. Johnson will play seven games against teams that gave up 17 or more fantasy points per game to backs last season. Consider him a high-end No. 2 runner.
23. Reggie Bush, Detroit Lions (17.17 points):
Home:Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Away:Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals
2013 Outlook: Bush (14th) has signed with the Lions and will battle Mikel Leshoure for backfield touchdowns. The eventual starter -- which appears likely to be Bush -- will be a viable No. 2 fantasy runner in standard and PPR formats. Just keep in mind that he will face an unattractive schedule. Of his 16 games, seven will come against teams that gave up 17 or fewer fantasy points to opposing runners in 2012. Regardless, this is a camp competition to watch.
T-24. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles (17.15 points):
Home:Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals
Away:Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2013 Outlook: The addition of new coach Chip Kelly is good news for the value of McCoy (21st), who should see more opportunities in an offense that leans on running the football. The schedule he'll face isn't favorable though, as the Eagles play nine teams that gave up fewer than 17 fantasy points per game to running backs last season. With that being said, the slate of contests doesn't alter McCoy's value -- he's still a top-eight pick in standard and PPR formats.
T-24. DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys (17.15 points):
Home:New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams
Away:New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, New Orleans Saints
2013 Outlook: Murray (27th) has all the talent in the world and the upside to become a strong fantasy running back. The problem, though, is his glaring lack of durability. He missed six games last season with a bad foot and has now missed a total of nine games in his first two pro campaigns. A risk-reward selection, Murray's schedule includes 10 games against teams that surrendered an average of fewer than 17 fantasy points to opposing running backs last season.
26. Rashard Mendenhall, Arizona Cardinals (17.11 points):
Home:St. Louis Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions
Away:St. Louis Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles
2013 Outlook: The Cardinals signed Mendenhall (85th) in the offseason, and the team is reportedly shopping around backup Ryan Williams. While Mendenhall will have some flex value, the schedule includes eight games against teams that gave up an average of fewer than 17 fantasy points per game last season. At this point, there isn't a single Cardinals running back -- including Mendenhall -- who will be worth more than a middle-round flex selection in 2013 drafts.
27. Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins (17.10 points):
Home:Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers
Away:Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Atlanta Falcons
2013 Outlook: Morris (5th) is coming off an enormous rookie season, posting over 1,600 rushing yards with 13 touchdowns as the lead back for coach Mike Shanahan. The question now is, can he do it again? That remains to be seen, but the schedule is not going to do Morris any favors. Eight of his 16 games for 2013 allowed fewer than 17 fantasy points per game to opposing runners last season. Regardless, Morris will be a first- or second-round selection across the board.
28. David Wilson, New York Giants (17.00 points):
Home:Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Seattle Seahawks
Away:Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Carolina Panthers
2013 Outlook: Wilson's (47th) value is clearly on the rise, as he's the favorite to start for coach Tom Coughlin in the absence of Bradshaw. While he will lose some work to Andre Brown, the Virginia Tech product is still the more explosive and productive player. Neither running back will have a favorable schedule, though, as the G-Men face 10 games against teams that allowed an average of fewer than 17 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs last season.
29. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cincinnati Bengals (16.74 points):
Home:Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Indianapolis Colts
Away:Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, San Diego Chargers
2013 Outlook: Green-Ellis (19th) was one of the more inconsistent runners in fantasy land last season, though he finished with double-digit points in six of the final eight weeks of the fantasy season. The Law Firm now has company in the form of rookie Giovani Bernard, and a schedule that includes nine games against teams that gave up an average of fewer than 17 fantasy points per game to backs last season isn't favorable. Overall, Green-Ellis is a borderline No. 2 or 3 back.
30. Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens (16.39 points):
Home:Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Houston Texans
Away:Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos
2013 Outlook: Rice (6th) continued to produce nice statistical totals for fantasy football owners last season with over 1,600 scrimmage yards and 10 total touchdowns. So while his schedule is one of the least favorable among running backs based on our FPA rating, the Rutgers product is still an absolute lock to be one of the first 10 players selected in 2013 drafts. Rice's toughest opponents will include the Steelers (2), Patriots, Texans, Vikings, Bears and Broncos.
31. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (16.06 points):
Home:Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Carolina Panthers
Away:Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks
2013 Outlook: Peterson (1st) has the second-worst schedule for running backs based on our FPA rating, and it means absolutely nothing. The best runner in fantasy land last season, Peterson rushed for over 2,000 yards and scored 44.8 more fantasy points than the next best runner -- and he did it less than a year removed from a major knee reconstruction. A physical freak of nature, Peterson is a virtual lock to be one of the first two players taken in almost all drafts.
32. Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers (15.54 points):
Home:Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons
Away:Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers
2013 Outlook: Lacy seems to have gained the inside track ahead of fellow rookie Johnathan Franklin and is now questionable for Week 1 after suffering a knee injury. Regardless, the eventual No. 1 runner will have quite a tough row with 12 games against teams that allowed an average of fewer than 17 fantasy points per game to backs last season. Furthermore, five of those teams surrendered an average of less than 15 fantasy points per game to the position overall.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Have a burning question on anything fantasy related? Tweet it to _**@MichaelFabiano**_ or send a question via **Facebook**!
