Every week, Scott Engel of RotoExperts.com focuses on key recent trends and numbers, and tells you how they will affect your Fantasy outlook for the upcoming week.
Feeling the heat:
Players who have positive numbers following them into Week 1.
Johnny Knox, WR, Chicago
Stat: Knox averaged 18.8 yards per catch in 2010, the best in the NFC by any player with 50-plus receptions.
Analysis: Knox endured a tough preseason in which he fell on the depth chart, but enters the season with a renewed sense of purpose and should be motivated to play in the opener. Start him as a WR3.
Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis
Stat:Â Addai has 632 rushing yards and six touchdowns vs. the Texans, the most vs. any opponent.
Analysis: The Colts will have to lean more heavily on their running game without Peyton Manning. Houston should game plan to contain the run, so bench Addai if you have a tight decision between him and another option.
Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee
Stat: Johnson averages 105.3 yards per game against the Jaguars.
Analysis: After missing the entire preseason, Johnson is far from a lock to perform well against any opponent. No one knows for sure how he will look, and what kind of game shape he may be in. Don't expect Johnson to bust out in Week 1, even though you cannot reserve him.
Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit
Stat: Best rushed for two touchdowns in the 2010 season opener in his NFL debut.
Analysis: As fantasy owners well know, health issues quelled enthusiasm about Best after a hot start. The fleet running back will be primed to get off to a good start again as he tries to put last season behind him. Start Best with confidence in Week 1.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina
Stat: Williams is shooting for his fourth consecutive 100-yard game against Arizona.
Analysis: Can't see it happening this time. Cam Newton will struggle to manage the offense in the opener and the Cardinals can swarm the run early before the Panthers fall far behind and Williams becomes a non-factor. Expect mediocre fantasy totals.
Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco
Stat: In his last meeting with the Seahawks, Alex Smith notched a career-best 130.9 QB rating, completing 30 of 42 attempts for three touchdowns and no interceptions.
Analysis: If you are desperate for a quarterback starter this week, Smith is actually worth a look. He has a star-crossed, yet talented receiving crew that should make some notable plays against the Seattle secondary.
Mario Manningham, WR, New York Giants
Stat: Manningham has a touchdown catch in three of his past four matchups with the Redskins. He had four catches for 101 yards and a score in his last meeting with Washington.
Analysis: Divisional opponents know each other well, and the Redskins will prepare to contain Manningham. But they do not have the personnel to hold him down, and he'll outwork cornerback Josh Wilson frequently for another quality outing.
Wes Welker, WR, New England
Stat: Welker will be aiming for his eighth consecutive game against Miami with eight or more receptions.
Analysis: The Dolphins' cornerbacks are indeed respectable, but Tom Brady is going to take advantage of a defense that spends too much time on the field on Monday night, and Welker will be good for at least six catches and possibly a touchdown.
Searching for sparks:
These players will look to turn some negative outlooks around in Week 1.
Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore
Stat: Rice has never scored in his career against the Steelers. He averages just over 56 rushing yards against Pittsburgh.
Analysis: Rice now has fullback Vonta Leach to blast holes open for him, and he could enjoy a career season, especially in the touchdown department. You cannot bench Rice, of course, and while the Steelers should keep him out of the end zone, he should rush for considerably more than 56 yards.
Week 1 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em
With no backfield competition and a weak running defense opposing him, Beanie Wells is a prime candidate for a big Week 1,
**Michael Fabiano writes**.
**More ...**
Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego
Stat: Mathews averaged 3.7 yards per carry at home in 2010, as compared to 4.8 on the road.
Analysis: Mathews has a lot to prove and will want to get off to a good start in front of the home folks against the Vikings. Look for him to build a quality stat line. He will be a very good flex option for Week 1.
Beanie Wells, RB, Arizona
Stat: Wells has registered 58 yards on 16 carries in two career games against the Panthers.
Analysis: Wells has the starting job all to himself this year, and should be very busy as the Cardinals roll up a big lead against the Panthers. Expect him to start off the new season with an impressive statistical outing.
Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City
Stat: Bowe caught seven passes for 119 yards in three September games last year.
Analysis: Bowe can easily put up those numbers in one game, as we well know. This is not Fantasy Baseball, so do not expect a slow start based on past production. Bowe should post at least acceptable numbers in the opener and is a must-start.
Tarvaris Jackson, QB, Seattle
Stat: In seven career games in September, Jackson has averaged 94.1 yards with two touchdown passes and six interceptions.
Analysis: This is where past production and totals do apply. Jackson will struggle mightily in his first game as a Seahawk behind a revamped offensive line that is still coming together. Give the 49ers' defense strong consideration this week.
Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets
Stat: Sanchez has historically struggled against NFC teams, with three touchdown passes and 11 interceptions in seven career games.
Analysis: Sanchez is one of the best "underdog" Fantasy starts of Week 1. Look for him to spread the ball around very effectively against a vulnerable Dallas defense, and he will throw two to three touchdown passes.
Brandon Marshall, WR, Miami
Stat: Marshall caught one TD pass in three September games in 2010.
Analysis: Marshall is healthy and it's important for the Miami offense that he gets off to a good start this year. The Dolphins cannot depend on their running game, so Marshall will be a go-to guy and should find the end zone on the national stage Monday.
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