We all guess about which draft picks will be successful and which won't work out. At the end of the day, it's going to come down to their talent combined with their fit, as well as their health. A lot of factors will go into determining whether or not these players work out. On the surface in taking a first glance at the 2016 NFL Draft, here are five picks that I didn't quite understand.
Round 1, pick 8 -- OT Jack Conklin, Titans: I like Conklin. I think he's a good player, but I wouldn't have parted with picks to trade up to get him like the Titans did, especially since they could have stayed at No. 15 and landed Ohio State OT Taylor Decker. I don't see a tremendous amount of difference between those two players. In fact, I'd argue that Decker is a better pass protector.
Round 1, pick 28 -- OG Joshua Garnett, 49ers: The 49ers' decision to trade back into Round 1 to take Garnett was the biggest head-scratcher of the first round, in my opinion. I thought Garnett was a third-round player. My theory is that Chip Kelly experienced such poor guard play with the Eagles last season and decided to make that a priority in his next stop. I wouldn't have agreed with the move, but I would have understood it more if they would have traded up and taken Kansas State OG Cody Whitehair with the pick. They didn't take the right guy.
Round 2, pick 51 -- QB Christian Hackenberg, Jets: Hackenberg is so raw and inconsistent -- I couldn't put a value on him that high in the draft. There are a lot of good players they could have added to their team. Instead, they have a long-term project. I'm not convinced Hackenberg will ever be a starting NFL quarterback.
Round 3, pick 93 -- QB Cody Kessler, Browns: There are a handful of quarterbacks I would have rather had in this spot. If I had the option of getting Arkansas' Brandon Allen in the sixth round, where the Jaguars took him, or Kessler in Round 3, I would have much rather had Allen. I don't think Kessler's physical skill set matches that division, considering the weather he'll be playing in. I understand the plan of building up the roster before taking a quarterback, and it looks like that's what they did by trading down in the first round, but I don't understand why they would take a player I consider to be a backup quarterback with such a valuable pick. I had heard rumblings weeks ago that Kessler was in the mix for the Browns in the second round. I didn't believe it, but it turns out that it was probably true.
Round 4, pick 119 -- RB Tyler Ervin, Texans: I think Ervin can be a really good kick returner and I think he has value as a change-of-pace third-down runner. But, I wouldn't have taken him over Utah's Devontae Booker, who went 17 picks later. Booker could be a solid three-down back. If the Texans were set on taking an undersized player with change-of-pace ability, I would have taken Wendell Smallwood from West Virginia -- Smallwood went in the next round. I like Ervin, but I think there were better options at his position at that point in the draft.