Never heard of a leg injury game in a playoff game (Seahawks-Redskins, to be exact) causing such a media/Twitter/Facebook/eHarmony/water-cooler firestorm ...
Our analysts forecast each divisional-round game.
Peyton Manning's
Calm down, everybody. Team doctors agreed Steven Hauschka has a calf injury, and Seattle put the kicker on injured reserve. The team signed Ryan Longwell, and the playoffs proceed.
OK, the Robert Griffin III saga was a big deal. But the reality is that the Washington Redskins are gone from the mix, and the suddenly-hurting-but-hot Seattle Seahawks move on. Their kicker is gone, as well as their best pass rusher, yet the 12th Man remains confident as ever that this squad can deliver a road win in Atlanta. The Seahawks have been playing solid football, and overcame uncharacteristic mistakes -- like Marshawn Lynch going Yield Mode, fumbling at the goal line -- to log a sixth straight win. I like that group again this weekend.
As for the rest of the games, you might notice another upset below. Call it a mild upset. And how about the Denver Broncos? Well, another game in which a win won't necessarily prove that they truly are the best the NFL has to offer. That said, a win automatically brings the AFC Championship Game to Sports Authority Field at Mile High (if that's still the sponsor by then). Opposing teams are 1-4 historically when playing a mile up in Denver in the AFC Championship.
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But we might be getting ahead of ourselves; maybe the Baltimore Ravens will shock the football-watching world. Per the usual, would love your thoughts on that potentially happening and anything else that tickles you pink in the scribblings below. The dropbox is @Harrison_NFL.
Elliot Harrison went 3-1 on Wild Card Weekend, giving him a 144-67-1 record since taking over this space in Week 4. How will he fare in the divisional round? His picks are below, with home teams listed second:
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Can the
Baltimore Ravens stop the run? That's the question in my head for this divisional-round opener. Teams have gotten a tremendous amount of movement on Baltimore's front seven -- with or without
Ray Lewis -- so you should expect
Peyton Manning to audible to more running plays than usual. (Unless, of course, the team just calls more runs in the huddle than usual because of the
Ravens' weakness in that area.) The
Denver Broncos have averaged more than 148 rushing yards per game in their last four outings, with six touchdowns on the ground.
The other concern for the underdog
Ravens is their dependence on the home run.
Joe Flacco hit a few long balls
on Wild Card Weekend, but the
Indianapolis Colts certainly don't have a corner of
Champ Bailey's ilk, or a comparable secondary overall to Denver's group. The
Broncos' defense has given up the fifth-fewest passing plays of 20-plus yards. Now, it's important to note that when
Ray Rice is inside the white lines Sunday, he will be the
best player on the field. The
Ravens should try to get the ball in his hands 25 times, with a sprinkling of
Bernard Pierce. Limit Peyton's possessions = best chance to win for Baltimore.
#BALvsDEN
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The
Green Bay Packers are fresh off
a cruise-control win over the Minnesota Vikings. Bottom line: Green Bay was never really challenged by the extremely mobile -- and extremely unprepared --
Joe Webb. That won't be the case with
Colin Kaepernick, who will be starting his eighth straight game for the
San Francisco 49ers. While the
Packers' secondary is exposable, the Niners' strength is not in their passing game. So, the real matchup might be
Charles Woodson vs. Kaepernick. When Woodson blitzes, or changes his "expected" position on the field, will the
49ers quarterback recognize it? The other key matchup is Green Bay's
17th-ranked run defense vs.
Frank Gore, who got some needed rest with the bye.
So did
Justin Smith, who hasn't seen action in a month. If Smith and his ailing triceps can't get a push, or occupy two blockers, can
Aldon Smith wreak havoc on his own? This
Packers offensive line is what it is -- mediocre -- and
Aaron Rodgers still holds the ball too long. But right now, I trust Rodgers more than Smith's triceps, which is big for a 3-4 defensive end. Green Bay must hope it can get
something out of
DuJuan Harris, or the
49ers will have a much easier time affecting Rodgers' timing with
Greg Jennings,
Randall Cobb and others.
#GBvsSF
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Trailing by six late, the Atlanta Falcons get a field goal and a clutch defensive stand to get the ball back, but can't get it done against the Seattle Seahawks' secondary on the final possession. That's what I'm calling, although my Seattle pick doesn't feel as strong without the team's best pass rusher in Chris Clemons.
@harrison_nfl Bruce Irvin will get two sacks in SEA's win over ATL. So, no, the drop-off won't be huge. SEA has depth. But Clemons is missed.
â Ray Cascade (@raycascade) January 9, 2013
Two sacks, huh? And of course, I would expect Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll to say nothing less. Heck, maybe I'm overrating the injury. (Can you overrate 11.5 sacks in such an even playoff match?) Still, Seattle can't let Matt Ryan sit back there and pick the defense apart. Even the Seahawks' secondary is vulnerable if the opposing quarterback has time. Look no further than the loss to the Detroit Lions back in Week 8. Like that Lions team, Atlanta doesn't have much of a running game. (Unless 3.7 yards per carry gets you all hot and bothered.) I'll tell you this: Seattle will be able to run the football in the second half against an Atlanta defense that is particularly bad on first down -- teams gained 5.1 yards per carry on what is often considered a "running down," i.e., when defenses prepare for a handoff. So even if the Falcons stack the box, they still get racked up by guys like Marshawn Lynch.@harrison_nfl, I belive Carroll, "We'll certainly miss Clem, but (Irvin) can hold up his own."#SEAHAWKS
â Colby Dees (@ColbyDees) January 9, 2013
Play action could tell the tale of this game. Not only does Russell Wilson routinely employ it off Lynch plunges, but bear in mind that play action is precisely where so many big plays come from. (Some things from 1952 and 1982 still ring true in 2012.) This just in: Over the last eight weeks of the season, the Falcons gave up the most plays of 20-plus yards in the NFC. #SEAvsATL
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The
Houston Texans' secondary has to play it close to the vest, which is to say defensive coordinator
Wade Phillips has to play it close to the vest. The last two times
Bill Belichick has faced a Phillips defense, it hasn't been pretty:
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Patriots at Cowboys, 2007: 448 total yards, 129.6 passer rating (
Tom Brady), 48 points.
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Texans at Patriots, 2012: 419 total yards, 125.4 passer rating (Brady), 42 points.
Umm ... Those numbers kinda suck. I love me some Wade, but he just can't leave his secondary in man coverage all day while he tries to get his blitzing linebackers in mismatches. The age-old equation with Phillips has always been easy, and effective:
'Backers on backs equals sacks. The problem is, while Houston works to get those matchups, some dude on the back end of the defense
will get exposed.
Now, the
Texans can plan on running the football to maintain possession and burn clock. But if they can't stop all of Brady's hot reads to
Wes Welker, or check-down-and-sprint-your-tail-offs to
Danny Woodhead, they're done. I expect Houston to be aggressive offensively, perhaps airing it out on the first two drives, forcing the
New England Patriots to play the whole field defensively EARLY ...
Thennnnnnnn grinding it on the ground with
Arian Foster. Will that be enough? You saw my score prediction.
#HOUvsNE
Elliot Harrison is an analyst on NFL Network's NFL Fantasy Live show, weekdays at 1 p.m. ET and Sundays at 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow him on Twitter @Harrison_NFL.
