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Coaching Trends for Fantasy: NFC

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Stats. Analytics.

These days, there's no shortage of information to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Heck, there might even be too much info! Well, I'm going to add to the madness with a look at how offensive coordinatorS and head coaches have run their offenses and what it might mean for the 2019 season.

After all, the offensive coaches are the minds behind the chess game that is the National Football League. Some coaches like to run the football, thus producing a ton of fantasy points at the running back position. Others prefer the air assault, making fantasy superheroes out of quarterbacks while loading up wide receivers and tight ends with oodles of targets and chances to score in the pass attack.

Well, this article will break it all down for you.

What you'll find below is a list of all 16 AFC teams, their head coaches and offensive coordinators with career averages in pass and run percentage. For head coaches who are defensive minds, I've included the combined totals of the offensive coordinators who have worked under them through the years.

Enjoy!

Atlanta Falcons


Head Coach: Dan Quinn (4 NFL seasons as HC - 60 percent pass/40 percent run)
Offensive coordinator: Dirk Koetter (12 NFL seasons - 58.1 percent pass/41.9 percent run)

-- The Falcons ranked in the top seven in pass percentage in each of Koetter's three seasons (2012-2014) in his first run as the team's offensive coordinator, so expect more of the same in 2019.

-- Matt Ryan had two top-seven finishes among fantasy quarterbacks and has averaged 4,643 passing yards and 28.6 touchdown passes in those three seasons under Koetter.

-- There have been eight instances over 12 seasons where a quarterback has finished in the top 15 under Koetter, including David Garrard (10th, 12th, 13th, 14th), Ryan (7th, 7th, 15th) and Jameis Winston (13th). However, Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combined to score 361.62 fantasy points last season. That would have ranked second at the quarterback position combined, ahead of even Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and Deshaun Watson. So, Ryan is in a good spot to succeed.

-- Maurice Jones-Drew had five top-13 running back finishes among under Koetter, including three in the top four. Doug Martin is the only other Koetter back to finish in the top 10.

-- There have been seven instances where a running back has had 40 or more catches under Koetter, including five with 50-plus catches. That's good news for Devonta Freeman, who averaged 54 catches a season from 2015-2017 before missing most of 2018. He's a third- or fourth-rounder.

-- There have been four wide receivers who have finished in the top 10 under Koetter, including Julio Jones (6th, 2014). Jones had 163 targets that season, which is the second most any wideout has ever had in Koetter's offense. Mike Evans' 173 targets in 2016 are the most any receiver has had under Koetter's watch in a single season. Jones should certainly push that total this season.

-- Jones' career-high in touchdown catches (10) also came under Koetter's watch. That happened in 2012, when 12.6 percent of his catches ended in the end zone.

-- There have been eight instances where wide receivers have had 1,000-plus yards in Koetter's offensive system. The leader of that group is Jones, who posted 1,593 yards during the 2014 season. That's the second-highest total of Jones' NFL career. That's yet another good sign for his 2019 value.

-- There have been five instances where a tight end has finished in the top 10 under Koetter, including three in the top four (Tony Gonzalez - 2012, 2013, Marcedes Lewis - 2010). That could bode well for Austin Hooper, who's being drafted as a No. 2 tight end despite finishing in the top 10 in 2018.

Arizona Cardinals


Head Coach: Kliff Kingsbury (1st NFL season as HC)
Offensive coordinator: Tom Clements (5 NFL seasons - 55.4 percent pass/44.6 percent run)

-- Kingsbury has never been an offensive coordinator or head coach at the NFL level, but fantasy fans can expect a quick-paced, high-tempo offensive attack similar to what he ran at Texas Tech.

-- Last season, the Cardinals offense averaged a mere 56.4 snaps per game. During Kingsbury's time at Texas Tech (six seasons), the Red Raiders led the FBS in snaps per game. That includes an 82.6 snap-per-game rate just one season ago. That's good news for the entire offense's fantasy value.

-- During his time at Texas Tech, Kingsbury coached Baker Mayfield (2013) and Patrick Mahomes (2014-2016). From 2015-2016, Mahomes combined to throw for 9,705 yards and 77 touchdowns in 25 games. That's an average of 388.2 passing yards and 3.08 touchdown passes per game.

-- Kingsbury's offenses rarely had a running back who saw high rush attempt totals, but Texas Tech did record 410 or more attempts in four of his six seasons in Lubbock. That's good news for David Johnson, who should be more successful in all aspects after a mediocre campaign a season ago.

-- Kingbury's offenses usually featured the slot receiver, whether it was a wide receiver or a tight end. In 2018, Larry Fitzgerald led all Cardinals receivers in routes out of the slot (382). The team also added slot man Andy Isabella in the draft, so we could see a lot of "10 personnel" on the field this season.

Carolina Panthers


Head Coach: Ron Rivera (8 NFL seasons as HC - 54.3 percent pass/45.7 percent run)
Offensive coordinator: Norv Turner (26 NFL seasons - 56.5 percent pass/43.5 percent run)

-- Turner's quarterbacks have ranked in the top 10 nine times in 26 seasons as a head coach or offensive coordinator, including four top-five finishes. There have been four other instances where his quarterbacks have ranked from No. 11-15 at the position.

-- Cam Newton had 101 rushing attempts and 488 rushing yards in his first season under Turner last season. The previous highs at the position under Turner were 53 carries (Doug Flutie - 2001) and 209 rushing yards ( Teddy Bridgewater - 2014), but he hasn't had a quarterback like Newton, either.

-- Just two quarterbacks have thrown for 4,000-plus yards under Turner ... Philip Rivers (2008-2011) and Brad Johnson (1999). Rivers is the lone quarterback to throw for 30 or more touchdowns under Turner, and he did it twice (2008, 2010). Don't expect Newton to join this list in 2019.

-- There have been 10 instances where a running back has finished in the top five and another five instances where running backs have finished No. 6-10 in Turner's offense. Among the backs who have finished in the top five include Emmitt Smith (1992, 1993), Christian McCaffrey (2018), LaDainian Tomlinson (2007) and Adrian Peterson (2015). CMC should hit that mark again in 2019.

-- There have been 16 instances where a runner has had 1,000-plus rushing yards, and 18 instances where running backs have had double-digit total touchdowns under Turner. Running backs have had 300-plus touches 15 times under Turner, so he likes to use a featured back when one is available. McCaffrey, who had 326 touches last season, will continue to fill that role in 2019.

-- At wide receiver, Turner's offenses have produced just three top-five finishes and four top-10 finishes. Two of those came from Michael Irvin (1992, 1993) during their time in Dallas. Josh Gordon (2013) had the highest finish under Turner, as he ranked second at the position while averaging a career-best 22.46 fantasy points. There have been eight other instances where a wideout has finished No. 13-20.

-- Just three wide receivers have had 80-plus catches in a single season under Turner, including Irvin (1993), Josh Gordon (2013) and Stefon Diggs (2016). There's been four other instances where a wideout has had 70-78 catches, including Irvin (1992), Jerry Porter (2005), Henry Ellard (1994) and Curtis Conway (2001). Don't be surprised to see D.J. Moore join that group in 2019.

-- Turner has seen wideouts post 1,000-plus yards 13 times, and just one wideout (Chris Chambers - 2003) has had double-digit touchdown catches. However, there have been seven instances where a wideout has had 8-9 touchdown catches. Based on the data, Moore's ceiling might be that of a No. 2 wideout. That would still be a nice return on a fifth- or sixth-round investment.

-- Turner has had a lot of success with tight ends in his career as a coordinator or head coach. In fact, his offenses have had a top-10 player at the position 12 times. That list includes Jay Novacek (1992), Jordan Cameron (2013) and Randy McMichael (2003). Here's the downside ... Greg Olsen has been prone to foot problems in recent seasons and is no longer considered a viable No. 1 fantasy tight end. In fact, he has an average draft position (ADP) in the double-digit rounds this season.

Chicago Bears


Head Coach: Matt Nagy (2 NFL seasons - 56.4 percent pass/43.6 percent run)
Offensive coordinator: Mark Helfrich (1 NFL season - 53.8 percent pass/46.2 percent run)

-- Nagy's quarterbacks have finished third ( Alex Smith - 2017) and 15th ( Mitchell Trubisky - 2018) in fantasy points at the position during his short time as an NFL coordinator or head coach.

-- Nagy's offenses have fielded a top-four running back ( Kareem Hunt - 2017) and a top-11 back ( Tarik Cohen - 2018). He's also had two backs (Hunt - 2017, Jordan Howard - 2018) post 250 or more carries, which is good news for rookie David Montgomery. His ADP is sneaking into the fourth round in drafts.

-- Nagy has had just one wide receiver rank better than 41st during his short time in the league, however. That's Tyreek Hill, who finished fourth at the position in 2017. Allen Robinson has a shot to add his name to this short list, but he's failed to be a reliable fantasy option since his breakout season in Jacksonville. I'd consider A-Rob a risk-reward No. 2 fantasy wideout in fantasy drafts.

-- Nagy has coached a pair of top-eight tight ends, Travis Kelce (2017) and Trey Burton (2018). Kelce ranked first at the position, while Burton ranked eighth. The latter is worth a late-round pick.

Dallas Cowboys


Head Coach: Jason Garrett (12 NFL seasons - 56.9 percent pass/43.1 percent run)
Offensive coordinator: Kellen Moore (1st NFL season as OC)

-- Moore is in his first season as an NFL offensive coordinator, so let's take a look at what the Cowboys offense has looked like under Garrett. The Cowboys have produced a top-10 quarterback seven times under Garrett's 12-year watch, though all but one of those finishes came from Tony Romo.

-- Dak Prescott has finished sixth, 10th and 11th as the team's starter. He averaged 274 passing yards with 18 total touchdowns and four interceptions in nine games with Amari Cooper. He also posted a 103.0 passer rating with the former Raiders wideout, so he could be a draft bargain in 2019.

-- Dallas has had their best running back (per season) rank in the top 10 in PPR formats six times under Garrett, including Ezekiel Elliott (2016, 2018). He's currently in a training camp holdout.

-- There have been five instances where the Cowboys have had a top-10 wideout, but it hasn't happened since Dez Bryant accomplished the feat in 2014. However, Cooper's full-season projections based on the numbers he posted in nine games with the Cowboys would have ranked him 10th, ahead of Stefon Diggs, Robert Woods and Keenan Allen. Cooper is now a third-round selection.

-- The Cowboys have had a lot of success at tight end under Garrett's watch, as Jason Witten has recorded nine top-10 finishes in PPR leagues. That's not in the cards for Witten this season, however, who is returning from a one-year retirement. He's little more than a late-round flier in drafts.

Detroit Lions


Head Coach: Matt Patricia (1 NFL season as HC - 60.4 percent pass/39.6 percent run)
Offensive coordinator: Darrell Bevell (12 NFL seasons - 52.8 percent pass/47.2 percent run)

-- Bevell's offenses have ranked in the top 10 in run percentage seven times in his 12 seasons as a coordinator. That includes four top-two finishes and another two finishes in the top five. That bodes well for the future prospects of Kerryon Johnson, who is a popular breakout candidate in drafts.

-- Bevell has coached a top-10 quarterback six times, but one was Brett Favre (2009) and the other five instances were all Russell Wilson (2012-2015, 2017). Matthew Stafford isn't likely to put up such impressive fantasy numbers, however. In fact, he's going undrafted in some 10-teamers.

-- Bevell has coached two of the elite fantasy running backs in the last decade, Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch. The duo combined for eight top-nine fantasy finishes at the position. Chester Taylor also finished 13th and 19th under Bevell's watch, so he's had success with a "non-elite" back too.

-- Bevell has never seen a running back catch 50 balls in a single season. The most came from Mewelde Moore, who had 46 receptions on 62 targets (also a high for a Bevell running back) in 2006. As a result, we might want to keep the reception projections for Kerryon Johnson in the low to mid 40s rather than 50-plus this season. Regardless, he's a high-end No. 2 fantasy back.

-- Wide receivers haven't exactly thrived under Bevell, as just two players ( Doug Baldwin - 2015, 2016) and Sidney Rice (2009) have finished in the top 10 in PPR formats while playing in his offense. What's more, those are the lone wideouts with 1,000-yard seasons under Bevell. Rice's 1,312 yards is the most his offense has ever produced, which is notable for Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones.

-- Bevell has also had just one wideout (Baldwin) finish with more than eight touchdown catches in a single season. That's also notable as it pertains to the fantasy ceilings of Golladay and Jones.

-- Just two tight ends have finished better than ninth in PPR points under Bevell, Jimmy Graham and Visanthe Shiancoe, and each of them did it twice. T.J. Hockenson has a boatload of upside as a future fantasy star, but projecting him to have a breakout season as a rookie might be asking too much. Instead, he'll be a worthwhile No. 2 in re-drafts with far more value in dynasty leagues.

Green Bay Packers


Head Coach: Matt LaFleur (2 NFL seasons - 53.1 percent pass/46.9 percent run)
Offensive coordinator: Nathaniel Hackett (5 NFL seasons - 56.9 percent pass/43.1 percent run)

-- Lafleur hasn't had a starting quarterback finish better than 12th in fantasy points ( Jared Goff - 2017), but it means little with Aaron Rodgers now at the helm. He's an obvious top-five quarterback.

-- At running back, the Sean McVay/LaFleur combo helped Todd Gurley rank first in PPR points in 2017. During that season, Gurley 22.9 touches per game. LaFleur showed that he's not opposed to using a featured back in the second half of last season as well, as Derrick Henry averaged 21.8 carries over the final four games of the regular season. He also saw 40 combined touches in Tennessee's two postseason games. So while Lafleur has talked about using Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams in a staggered committee scenario, he hasn't been opposed to using a featured back. That's good news for Jones, who is a popular breakout candidate and the preferred option in fantasy land.

-- LaFleur hasn't had a top-20 PPR wide receiver while in Los Angeles or Tennessee, but that's destined to change with Davante Adams. Keep in mind that Corey Davis, who played under LaFleur a season ago, had nearly the same target share (26.4 percent) as Adams (27.5 percent). Of course, Adams was far more productive in fantasy leagues. He'll be worth a late first-round selection.

-- Tight ends have done next to nothing in LaFleur's offenses, with the top finisher being 34th ( Jonnu Smith - 2018). However, he also didn't have Delanie Walker during his lone year with the Titans due to injuries. Jimmy Graham, who looked like a shell of his former self last season, should fare better than LaFleur's previous tight ends but isn't projected to return to a top-10 level in fantasy land.

Los Angeles Rams


Head Coach: Sean McVay (5 NFL seasons - 58.3 percent pass/41.7 percent run)
Offensive coordinator: Aaron Kromer (3 NFL seasons - 64.9 percent pass/35.1 percent run)

-- Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff have combined for three top-eight finishes under McVay's watch, and each has enjoyed a pair of seasons with 25 or more touchdown passes.

-- McVay's offense has helped Todd Gurley produce a pair of top-3 finishes over the last two seasons, while Alfred Morris finished 17th under his watch with the Redskins in 2014. His backs have also enjoyed success as pass catchers, as Gurley (2017-2018), Chris Thompson (2016) and Roy Helu (2014) all had at least 42 receptions in a single season. That could bode well for Darrell Henderson, who could have some standalone value if he inherits the "Thompson role" in the offensive attack.

-- McVay's system produced a pair of top-13 wideouts in Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks last season, and Cooper Kupp was on pace to be a top-12 receiver before going down with an injured knee. Prior to that, he hadn't had a single receiver finish better than 23rd ( DeSean Jackson - 2014).

-- Jordan Reed filed a pair of top-nine finishes among tight ends under McVay's watch during their time together in Washington, but neither Gerald Everett or Tyler Higbee have broken the top 20 tight ends during their time in Hollywood. There's very little value at the position again in 2019 fantasy drafts.

Minnesota Vikings


Head Coach: Mike Zimmer (5 NFL seasons as HC - 57.7 percent pass/42.3 percent run)
Offensive coordinator: Kevin Stefanski (1 NFL season - 52.0 percent pass/48.0 percent run)

-- Stefanski has a very short resume (three games) as an offensive coordinator, so the sample size has to be taken with a grain of salt. He threw the ball 52 percent of the time, and Kirk Cousins threw for 600 yards and six touchdowns in those games. He could be a steal in the later rounds of drafts.

-- One trend of note under Stefanski's guidance was the increase in fantasy value that Dalvin Cook experienced. In those three games, the Florida State product averaged 18 touches, 110.3 scrimmage yards and scored two touchdowns. He's a high-end No. 2 fantasy running back.

-- Stefanski's offense went heavily in the direction of Stefon Diggs in those three games, as he averaged 7.7 targets per game compared to Adam Thielen's four per game. In the first 12 games of the season under John DeFilippo, Theilen averaged 11.2 targets. Don't be surprised if Diggs outscores Thielen in standard scoring leagues, but both will be picked in the third to fourth rounds.

New Orleans Saints


Head Coach: Sean Payton (15 NFL seasons - 59.3 percent pass/40.7 percent run)
Offensive coordinator: Pete Carmichael (10 NFL seasons - 60.9 percent pass/39.1 percent run)

-- Payton and Drew Brees have been quite a dynamic fantasy duo, as the latter has ranked in the top-nine among fantasy quarterbacks 12 times. However, his two worst finishes under Payton's watch have come over the last two seasons. That signals a declining fantasy player, despite his past greatness.

-- Payton's running backs have a combined five top-nine finishes including two others who ranked 11th and 12th. There have also been 14 instances where Payton's running backs have finished with at least 50 catches, including nine with at least 70 receptions. That includes Alvin Kamara, who has 162 catches in his first two NFL seasons. He's a virtual guarantee to post 70-plus catches in 2019.

-- The Saints have had just two 1,000-yard rushers under Payton, including two from Mark Ingram (2016-2017) and one from Deuce McAllister (2006). Payton has had three 1,000-yard rushers in all when you add Tiki Barber, who reached that mark twice under Payton while he was with the G-Men.

-- This offense has produced a combined five top-10 finishes at wide receiver under Payton, with Michael Thomas (2016-2017) and Marques Colston (2007, 2011) each putting up a pair. Payton has also had 13 1,000-yard receiving seasons between New York and New Orleans, including at least one 1,000-yard wideout in four straight seasons. Obviously, Thomas will remain an elite option in 2019.

-- The Saints have had four top-seven finishes at the tight end position, including three from Jimmy Graham (2011, 2013-2014) and Benjamin Watson (2015). That's good news for Jared Cook, who signed as their new No. 1 tight end in the offseason. He's a mid-range No. 1 option in 2019 drafts.

New York Giants


Head Coach: Pat Shurmur (10 NFL seasons - 58.7 percent pass/41.3 percent run)
Offensive coordinator: Mike Shula (10 NFL seasons - 52.8 percent pass/47.2 percent run)

-- Shurmur's offense threw the ball 64 percent of the time in his first season with the Giants, but Eli Manning still finished just 17th in fantasy points at the position. Shurmur has never coached a top-10 fantasy quarterback, and he won't do it in 2019 either. Manning won't be drafted in most drafts.

-- Shurmur has produced four top-seven fantasy backs, including Saquon Barkley last season.The rookie finished first at the position. He's also had four other instances of a runner finishing No. 11-17.

-- Shurmur likes to use a featured back when one is available. In fact, his top back has seen 318 or more touches six times. As a result, it's possible Barkley will see 80 percent of the team's touches once again. He should also handle 100-plus targets, making him a popular No. 1 overall pick.

-- In his 10 years as either an offensive coordinator or head coach, Shurmur has had just two top-10 fantasy wideouts (Jeremy Maclin - 2014, Adam Thielen - 2017). With Odell Beckham Jr. in Cleveland, Sterling Shepard dealing with a broken hand and Golden Tate suspended for the first four game, the G-Men don't figure to field a top-15 receiver. In fact, this offense could struggle to have a top-25 wideout.

-- The team's best fantasy receiver is likely to be Evan Engram, who will see increased targets throughout the regular season. In four games without OBJ a season ago, Engram averaged 7.8 targets, 80 yards and an impressive 16.2 fantasy points. Shurmur has also been at the helm of three offenses that have produced a top-nine fantasy tight end in PPR formats.

Philadelphia Eagles


Head Coach: Doug Pederson (6 NFL seasons - 57.4 percent pass/42.6 percent run)
Offensive coordinator: Mike Groh (1 NFL season - 61.6 percent pass/38.4 percent run)

-- Pederson has had one quarterback finish better than 13th in fantasy points at the position. That was Carson Wentz, who ranked fifth in 2017. Wentz, with some additional weapons in the pass attack, is a good bet to push for top-10 value in 2019. He's not coming off the board until the middle to late rounds.

-- In three seasons with Pederson at the helm, the Eagles have run backfield committees on a regular basis. In fact, he hasn't had a single runner average more 12.9 touches per game (Ryan Mathews - 2016) or finish better than 24th in PPR points ( Darren Sproles - 2016). Maybe that changes with Miles Sanders, but Jordan Howard is also in the mix. Don't be surprised if another committee emerges.

-- Pederson hasn't had a ton of success with wideouts, either. He hasn't had a top-15 player at the position between his time in Kansas City and Philadelphia, and the best finish a wideout has had under his watch with the Eagles is Alshon Jeffery (21st, 2017). With Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Nelson Agholor and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside all in the mix, this scenario could play out again this season.

-- At tight end, Pederson's offenses have produced a combined five top-eight finishes between superstars Travis Kelce (2014-2015) and Zach Ertz (2016-2018). He has also targeted his top tight end in his offensive attack 103 or more times four times as a either coordinator or head coach.

San Francisco 49ers


Head Coach: Kyle Shanahan (11 NFL seasons - 58.5 percent pass/41.5 percent run)
Offensive coordinator: Kyle Shanahan

-- In his 11 seasons as either an offensive coordinator or head coach at the pro level, Shanahan has produced six offenses that ranked in the top eight in passing yards per game.

-- Shanahan has also coached three top-five fantasy quarterback seasons, including Matt Ryan, who ranked second at the position in 2016. Matt Schaub (2009) and Robert Griffin III (2012) have also accomplished that feat under Shanahan's watch. If Jimmy Garoppolo can avoid injuries, he could be a nice bargain in fantasy drafts. He's not coming off the board until the later rounds at this point.

-- During a typical season, Shanahan has preferred to use a featured back in his offensive attack. In fact, he has seen six different instances where a back has seen 281 or more touches. His new top running back, Tevin Coleman, has never seen more than 199 touches in a single season. If Shanahan sticks to the script, Coleman should see more chances and could be a nice bargain in 2019.

-- Shanahan's offenses have also featured a true No. 1 wide receiver, including Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, and Pierre Garcon. However, he might be forced to spread things out a bit with Dante Pettis, rookies Deebo Samuel, Jalen Hurd and veteran Marquise Goodwin all in the mix. Pettis could lead Niners wideouts in targets, making him worth a middle-rounder in most drafts.

-- Shanahan has seen three different tight ends ( George Kittle - 2018, Chris Cooley - 2010, Owen Daniels - 2008) rank among the 10 best players at the position. That's good news for Kittle, who busted out big time for fantasy fans a season ago. Keep this in mind, however ...

-- In NFL history, there's only been 10 instances where a tight end has had 1,200-plus yards in a single season, including Kittle and Travis Kelce in 2018. In the previous eight instances, only two tight end had 1,000-plus yards the following season and neither had more than 1,075. In five other instances, the player failed to reach the 950-yard mark. In all, the average yards a tight end recorded following a 1,200-plus yard season is 918. This trend indicates that yardage regression is very likely coming for Kittle.

Seattle Seahawks


Head Coach: Pete Carroll (14 NFL seasons - 54.6 percent pass/45.4 percent run)
Offensive coordinator: Brian Schottenheimer (10 NFL seasons - 53.7 percent pass/46.3 percent run)

-- In his first season as the offensive coordinator in Seattle, Schottenheimer's system ranked first in both rush percentage and rushing yards per game. That's good news for Chris Carson's value.

-- Russell Wilson ranked ninth in fantasy points among quarterbacks, which is the highest a signal-caller has ranked in a Schottenheimer offense. However, Wilson also rushed for just 376 yards. That's his second-lowest single-season total in the NFL. If that trend continues, he could be overvalued.

-- Schottenheimer has had just one top-10 running back (Thomas Jones - 2008-2009) as a coordinator, but he has also had six other instances where his backs have ranked No. 14-20. That includes Carson, who finished 15th at the position a season ago. He figures to lead the Seahawks backfield in touches once again, though Rashaad Penny will also see an uptick with Mike Davis now in Chicago.

-- Carroll has talked about Carson seeing more work in the passing game, as he saw just 24 targets a season ago. During his 10 seasons as an offensive coordinator, Schottenheimer has had a running back see 40-plus targets nine different times. That includes six instances where a back has seen 50-plus targets. Carson's value has risen as a result in recent drafts, and for good reason.

-- In such a run-based offense, it's no surprise that Schottenheimer has never had a wideout finish higher than 14th in fantasy points (Laveranues Coles - 2006). Tyler Lockett was a solid 16th a season ago, however, and the absence of Doug Baldwin should mean more chances in the pass attack. I wouldn't expect 1,000-plus yards from Lockett, though, as Schottenheimer has had just two such receivers at the NFL level. Lockett is looking like a solid fifth-round selection in drafts.

-- The Seahawks don't have any highly-relevant fantasy tight ends, but Schottenheimer has produced five top-14 tight ends. In all, he's had a top-20 tight end on nine different occasions, but only one (Dustin Keller - 2011) has cracked the top 10. Could Will Dissly be a very deep sleeper this season?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers


Head Coach: Bruce Arians (15 NFL seasons - 57.4 percent pass/42.6 percent run)
Offensive coordinator: Bryon Leftwich (1 NFL season - 59.7 percent pass/40.3 percent run)

-- Leftwich is slated to be the play-caller this season, but Arians is going to have a ton of input. He has coached some talented quarterbacks in his offenses, including Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, and Carson Palmer. That trio combined to finish in the top 10 four times under Arians' watch.

-- However, no other Arians quarterback has ever finished better than 22nd at the position. Of course, the list of those signal-callers includes the likes of Tim Couch, Kelly Holcomb, and Drew Stanton. I still like Jameis Winston to become a far more reliable option with Arians pulling the offensive strings.

-- Arians likes to use a featured back when one is available to him, as runners have averaged 18.4 touches or more eight times. Those backs include David Johnson (2016), Willie Parker (2007-2008) and Rashard Mendenhall (2010). Unfortunately, neither Ronald Jones nor Peyton Barber looks like a featured back. That could signal a backfield committee, which would cause plenty of confusion.

-- Arians' offense has leaned on slot receivers such as Larry Fitzgerald and Hines Ward in the past, which is even more reason to like Chris Godwin as a breakout wideout. He ranked second among Bucs receivers in running routes out of the slot a season ago, and the team leader (Adam Humphries) is no longer on the roster. Godwin has moved up as a fifth-round selection in drafts.

-- As for Mike Evans, Arians has produced a combined five top-10 fantasy wideouts and another six who finished No. 11-17. Evans fits the mold will be a surefire second or third rounder.

-- At tight end, Arians has only had one player (Heath Miller - 2007, 2009) rank in the top 10 at the position. I wouldn't hold that against O.J. Howard, however, as the Bucs have the most available targets in the league. If he can avoid injuries, the Alabama product should break out.

Washington Redskins


Head Coach: Jay Gruden (8 NFL seasons - 58.2 percent pass/41.8 percent run)
Offensive coordinator: Matt Cavanaugh (10 NFL seasons - 54.3 percent pass/45.7 percent run)

-- Gruden has had plenty of success with his quarterbacks, as he's had four top-eight finishes at the position. That includes Andy Dalton (yup, that Andy Dalton), who finished fifth in 2013. With that being said, the Redskins don't have a quarterback worth a serious look in fantasy re-drafts. Dwayne Haskins has the most upside, but Case Keenum is also a good bet to start significant games.

-- Gruden has never had a running back finish higher than 13th in PPR formats, and just three others have finished No. 16-19. He has had four different backs average at least 16.9 touches per game, so Gruden isn't against using a featured back if one is available. Derrius Guice is the best bet to lead the team in touches, but a featured role could be tough with Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson.

-- Gruden's offenses haven't produced a single top-20 fantasy wideout while he's been in Washington, and he's unlikely to do it again in 2019. Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson are the favorites to start, but don't be surprised if Trey Quinn leads the position in targets as the slot replacement for Jamison Crowder. He's well worth a late-round flier, especially in PPR scoring leagues.

-- At tight end, Jordan Reed (2015-2016) and Jermaine Gresham (2012) are the lone players to rank in the top 10 under Gruden's watch. Most fantasy fans are down on Reed due to injuries and a poor 2018 campaign, but he could be a targets machine in an offense that doesn't have a lot of playmakers.


Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram for the latest fantasy football news and analysis!

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