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NFL draft: Best, worst top-five picks since 2012
One thing is clear heading into the 2016 NFL Draft -- there's a lack of clarity about the top five.
Just look at NFL.com's Mock Draft Central. The only consensus opinion is that the Jags should take Myles Jack fifth overall. Otherwise, the names and order of the first handful of picks vary significantly.
The thing is, picking in the top five hasn't been a slam dunk since 2011, when the draft led off with the impressive quintet of Cam Newton, Von Miller, Marcell Dareus, A.J. Green and Patrick Peterson. In all four drafts since then, drafting in that range has been a very hit-or-miss proposition.
As we continue to grapple with the upper echelon of NFL prospects, I thought I'd look back over the first five players picked in each of the past four drafts and rank them, counting down from 20 to 1. The results show the pitfalls and possibilities of highly coveted draft slots.
Cynthia Frelund's Week 12 fantasy projections
My projections are based on historical trends, personnel, matchups and probable game scripts. Yes, it could be considered overkill to use 10 full years of past, actual, and comparable data to forecast each week, but why wouldn't you want to at least try to be as accurate as possible? I know I can't find a reason not to.