NFL fantasy football: WR rankings based on schedule

The National Football League has a strength of schedule formula that's simple to understand -- take the opponent's records from the previous season, add up the wins and losses and calculate a percentage. My fantasy points allowed (FPA) rating is similar. It uses statistics (fantasy points) surrendered by opponents the previous year against a single position both at home and on the road instead of team records. For example, the Minnesota Vikings surrendered an average of 27.56 fantasy points per home game to wide receivers in 2012. As a result, any wideout that faces them at Mall of America Field is rewarded 27.56 points. The bigger the point total, the easier the schedule.

These ratings are not to be confused with player rankings and are not the be-all, end-all in determining a player's stock. However, owners should use them when picking between players with similar value and looking for potential sleepers.

1. Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys (23.93 points):
Home:New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams
Away:New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, New Orleans Saints
2013 Outlook:Tony Romo has the easiest schedule among quarterbacks, so it's no shock to see Bryant (3rd in 2012) atop the wide receivers list. He is coming off a breakout fantasy season, recording career highs across the board. His stat-sheet success should continue in 2013, as Bryant will play the Eagles (2), Giants (2), Redskins (2) and Saints among his most favorable opponents. Those teams all ranked among the six-most vulnerable defenses against wideouts last season.

2. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions (23.41 points):
Home:Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Away:Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals
2013 Outlook: Johnson (1st), who broke the dreaded Madden curse last season, has one of the two easiest schedules in the NFL for wide receivers in 2013. Do you need any other reason to draft him? Megatron will go up against the Buccaneers, Vikings, Eagles, Redskins, Browns and plays in nine games overall against teams that allowed an average of more than 22 points per game to wideouts last season. Johnson is the lone wideout in fantasy land who is worth a first-rounder.

3. Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears (23.36 points):
Home:Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New Orleans Saints
Away:Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, St. Louis Rams
2013 Outlook: Marshall (2nd) is coming off the best fantasy season of his career, finishing among the top three players at his position based on points. With the addition of offensive-minded coach Marc Trestman, not to mention a favorable slate of games, Marshall won't last past the third round. The veteran will play nine games against teams that allowed more than 22 fantasy points per game to wideouts in 2012, including the Vikings (2), Giants, Redskins, Eagles, Browns and Saints.

4. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles (23.16 points):
Home:Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals
Away:Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2013 Outlook: Jackson (60th) disappointed fantasy leaguers last season, but there's at least some hope for 2013 with the addition of new coach Chip Kelly and a favorable slate of games. Playing in the NFC East is an instant advantage, as several of those teams struggled to stop opposing wideouts. Overall, Jackson will play in nine games against teams that allowed an average of more than 22 fantasy points per game to wide receivers in 2012.

5. Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos (23.10 points):
Home:Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Baltimore Ravens
Away:Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, New England Patriots
2013 Outlook: Thomas (5th), a breakout fantasy wideout in 2012, finished in the top five in points at his position with future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning under center. Along with Eric Decker and Wes Welker, the Broncos have three star fantasy wideouts on their roster -- and a favorable 2013 schedule is an advantage. Denver plays 12 games against teams that gave up 22-plus fantasy points to wideouts in 2012, including the Eagles, Giants, Redskins, Patriots, Colts and Chiefs (2).

6. Steve Johnson, Buffalo Bills (22.86 points):
Home:Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Kansas City Chiefs
Away:Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars
2013 Outlook: Johnson (21st) isn't one of the elite wide receivers in fantasy football, but he's a virtual lock to post 1,000 yards and somewhere between seven to nine touchdowns. His value isn't going to change drastically with the addition of new coach Doug Marrone, but a favorable schedule does make him at least a bit more attractive as a No. 3 fantasy wideout. Johnson will play nine games against teams that surrendered an average of 22-plus fantasy points to wideouts in 2012.

T-7. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (22.78 points):
Home:Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Cleveland Browns
Away:Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Buffalo Bills
2013 Outlook: Bowe (47th) will remain the top option in the pass attack for new coach Andy Reid -- and now he'll be catching passes from Alex Smith. The top wideout in Kansas City will face a very attractive slate of games based on our FPA rating that includes contests against the Colts, Texans, Giants, Eagles and Redskins. Overall, the Chiefs will play 11 contests against opponents that allowed an average of 22-plus fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts last season.

T-7. Malcom Floyd, San Diego Chargers (22.78 points):
Home:Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals
Away:Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Miami Dolphins
2013 Outlook: Danario Alexander (39th) showed some serious upside during his limited time with the Chargers last season, but he will miss the 2013 season after suffering a torn ACL. Floyd and Vincent Brown will look to fill the void, and the good news is they will play a combined 12 games against teams that allowed an average of more than 22 fantasy points per game to wideouts in 2012, including the Chiefs (2), Texans, Giants, Eagles and Redskins. Neither Floyd nor Brown will emerge as elite fantasy options, but as long as Floyd can overcome his preseason injury bug, they do have potential to become better than average WR2s.

9. Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins (22.72 points):
Home:Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, San Diego Chargers
Away:Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts
2013 Outlook: Wallace (25th) signed with the Dolphins and will now serve as the top option in the pass attack for Ryan Tannehill. While he's now more of a No. 2 fantasy wide receiver, a schedule that includes a number of favorable games will help his overall value. The Dolphins play a total of eight games against teams that allowed an average of more than 22 fantasy points per game to wide receivers last season, including the Patriots (2), Buccaneers, Saints and Colts.

10. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers (22.11 points):
Home:Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans
Away:Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Oakland Raiders
2013 Outlook: The offseason departure of Wallace will open the door for Antonio Brown (40th) and Emmanuel Sanders to see more opportunities in the pass attack. Regardless, Pittsburgh's eventual lead wideout will face a combined six games against teams that allowed 22-plus fantasy points per game to receivers last season. What's more, only five teams gave up an average of fewer than 20 points. As it stands, Brown is a No. 2 or 3 wideout while Sanders is more of a No. 4 or 5.

11. Anquan Boldin, San Francisco 49ers (22.10 points):
Home:Arizona Cardinals, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers
Away:Arizona Cardinals, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins
2013 Outlook: The loss of Michael Crabtree (Achilles') hurts, both for the Niners and fantasy owners. In comes Boldin, who will play seven games against teams that allowed 22-plus fantasy points to wideouts last season. That includes three games against opponents that gave up an average of over 28 points per game to the position. Regardless, I don't see the veteran as more than a No. 3 or 4 fantasy wideout - at best.

12. Victor Cruz, New York Giants (22.09 points):
Home:Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Seattle Seahawks
Away:Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Carolina Panthers
2013 Outlook: Cruz (13th) and Hakeem Nicks make up one of the better fantasy duos at the wide receiver position, though both are coming off disappointing seasons. Looking ahead to 2013, Cruz and Nicks will compete in eight games against teams that allowed an average of more than 22 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. That includes matchups against the Eagles (2), Redskins (2) and Vikings. Look for Cruz to be drafted as a No. 2 option, and Nicks as more of a No. 2 or 3.

13. Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars (21.97 points):
Home:Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills
Away:Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Cleveland Browns
2013 Outlook: Shorts (22nd) came out of nowhere to become a legitimate fantasy starter last season, posting career best across the board. Can he do it again? That remains to be seen, but Shorts does have a decent schedule ahead. Eight of his games come against teams that gave up an average of over 22 fantasy points per game to wideouts last season, including six against their three AFC South foes. Consider Shorts a viable No. 3 wideout in most 2013 leagues.

14. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (21.97 points):
Home:St. Louis Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions
Away:St. Louis Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles
2013 Outlook: Fitzgerald (42nd) is coming off the worst fantasy season of his career, as the Cardinals struggled on offense and failed to find a reliable quarterback. Still one of the best wideouts on the field, Fitzgerald should rebound under new coach Bruce Arians and with Carson Palmer under center. He'll play eight games against teams that allowed 22-plus fantasy points per game to wideouts last season, Fitz will have some opportunities to produce better numbers.

T-15. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons (21.93 points):
Home:Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Washington Redskins
Away:Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Green Bay Packers
2013 Outlook: Jones (9th) and Roddy White combine to make up one of the best fantasy wideout duos in fantasy football, so the schedule isn't going to make a major difference in their draft value. Eight of their 16 games will come against teams that gave up an average of over 22 fantasy points per game to wide receivers in 2012, including the Saints (2), Buccaneers (2), Patriots and Redskins. Both Jones and White will come off the board in the first four rounds of most leagues.

T-15. Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins (21.93 points):
Home:Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers
Away:Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Atlanta Falcons
2013 Outlook: Garcon (49th) is coming off an injury-plagued season, but he did put up some attractive numbers when he was on the field. Looking ahead, Garcon and his fellow wideouts will play eight games against teams that gave up 22-plus fantasy points per game to wide receivers last season. On the flip side, though, five other games will be played against teams that allowed under 20 points to the position. Garcon figures to be a viable No. 3 fantasy wideout in 2013 drafts.

17. Denarius Moore, Oakland Raiders (21.88 points):
Home:Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Pittsburgh Steelers
Away:Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, New York Jets
2013 Outlook: It's hard to trust anyone in a Raiders uniform, no less a talented but unreliable corps of wide receivers that includes Moore (34th) and Rod Streater. The schedule isn't going to add or detract from their value, as the Raiders will play in nine games against teams that gave up 22-plus fantasy points to wideouts in 2012. Of course, another six contests come against opponents that allowed fewer than 20. Overall, no Raiders wideout will be more than a No. 4 option.

18. A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals (21.84 points)
Home:Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Indianapolis Colts
Away:Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, San Diego Chargers
2013 Outlook: Regardless of strength of schedule, Green (4th) is going to rank among the three-best fantasy players at his position across the board. The Georgia product put up great totals in 2012, and his prospects for the future are very bright. Eight of Cincinnati's games will come against teams that allowed 22-plus fantasy points to wideouts last season. On the flip side, Green will also have to face some tough teams like the Ravens (2), Steelers (2), Jets and Bears.

19. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers (21.78 points):
Home:Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, New York Giants
Away:Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings
2013 Outlook: Smith (19th) had a nice finish to last season, but he scored just four touchdowns and barely finished as a No. 2 fantasy wideout based on points. Despite facing the Saints and Buccaneers twice, Smith and Brandon LaFell don't have a real advantage in 2013. Seven of their 16 games are against teams that allowed an average of more than 22 fantasy points to wideouts last season. Another five are against teams that gave up an average of fewer than 19 points.

20. Sidney Rice, Seattle Seahawks (21.31 points):
Home:Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Minnesota Vikings
Away:Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New York Giants
2013 Outlook: Rice (37th) will remain the top fantasy wideout in Seattle due to the loss of Percy Harvin, but he's still not more than a No. 4 fantasy option in most leagues. The same holds true of Golden Tate, who will see a more prominent role than he would have had if Harvin were on the field. With that said, the Seahawks play just six games against teams that allowed an average of more than 22 fantasy points per game to wideouts in 2012. Their toughest foes include the Niners (2), Cardinals (2), Falcons and Panthers.

21. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (21.27 points):
Home:Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots
Away:Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens
2013 Outlook: Despite struggling in the first half of last season, Johnson (8th) still finished with close to 1,600 yards and 183.80 fantasy points. He also scored a mere four touchdowns, which is the reason he didn't rank higher. The lone wideout with fantasy value in Houston, Johnson will play nine games against teams that allowed an average of more than 22 fantasy points per game to wideouts. However, he plays against two teams that gave up more than 25 per game.

22. Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers (21.23 points):
Home:Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons
Away:Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers
2013 Outlook: A breakout candidate in 2013, Cobb (18th) showed flashes of brilliance last season with over 150 fantasy points. Cobb, Jordy Nelson and James Jones won't have a schedule advantage, as the Packers play in five games against teams that surrendered more than 22 fantasy points per game to wideouts last season. With that being said, these wideouts do have an equalizer that keeps their value in good standing -- that equalizer is star quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

23. Greg Jennings, Minnesota Vikings (21.16 points):
Home:Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Carolina Panthers
Away:Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks
2013 Outlook: Jennings (74th) is the unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver in Minnesota after signing with the team during the offseason. His fantasy appeal does decline a bit, as the drop off from Rodgers to Christian Ponder at quarterback is huge. The veteran won't have the advantage of a good schedule either, as contests against the likes of the Bears (2), Steelers, Panthers, Ravens and Seahawks should be tough. Overall, Jennings will be a No. 2 or 3 fantasy wideout.

24. Santonio Holmes, New York Jets (21.08 points):
Home:Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Oakland Raiders
Away:Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans
2013 Outlook: Holmes (106th) averaged five catches a game last season, at least until he suffered an injured foot that cost him 11 contests. Upon his return, Holmes will deal with a new offense, an unstable quarterback spot and a schedule that includes seven games against teams that allowed an average of fewer than 20 fantasy points per game to wideouts in 2012. The Men in Green don't have a wide receiver who should be selected as more than a No. 4 fantasy option.

25. Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21.06 points):
Home:Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles
Away:Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Detroit Lions
2013 Outlook: Jackson (6th) and Mike Williams are coming off successful statistical seasons, as the Buccaneers emerged into a more lethal offensive unit on the gridiron. While Jackson will remain a No. 1 fantasy receiver, owners should keep in mind that he will face a difficult schedule based on our FPA ratings. Of his 16 upcoming games, a combined eight of them are against teams that gave up less than 20 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers last season.

26. Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns (21.03 points):
Home:Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars
Away:Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs
2013 Outlook: Gordon (38th) showed flashes of potential as a rookie and has the sort of speed and skills to become a playmaker at the NFL level. He should also benefit from the presence of new OC Norv Turner, who will be a positive for the entire offense. Unfortunately, Gordon won't benefit from the schedule. Aside from playing AFC North foes the Bengals (2), Ravens (2) and Steelers (2), the speedster must also go up against the Bears and Jets among his tougher games.

27. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints (20.98 points):
Home:Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys
Away:Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Chicago Bears
2013 Outlook: Colston (11th) and Lance Moore are both coming off 1,000-yard seasons, though the former was the better fantasy option with an impressive 10 touchdowns. This pair will face a tough slate of games in 2013, with just four games against teams that gave up 22-plus fantasy points per game to wideouts last season. With that said, Drew Brees is good enough to exploit any defense and is the biggest reason not to downgrade Colston or Moore on your wide receiver ranks.

28. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts (20.88 points):
Home:Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins
Away:Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals
2013 Outlook: Wayne (15th) saw a statistical rebirth last season with Andrew Luck under center, posting 31 more catches and 395 more yards than his 2012 totals. And while he will remain a viable No. 2 fantasy wideout in standard leagues, keep in mind that Wayne and fellow wideout T.Y. Hilton will have a tough road ahead. Of their 16 games, a total of eight will come against teams that gave up an average of fewer than 20 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts in 2012.

29. Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens (20.87 points):
Home:Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Houston Texans
Away:Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos
2013 Outlook: Smith (23rd) started hot but faded down the stretch last season, making him tough to trust in fantasy land. While the possibility of a break out is present in his third pro season, owners should keep in mind that Smith faces a tough slate. He'll play just two games against teams that allowed an average of over 25 fantasy points to wideouts in 2012. What's more, eight of his remaining 14 games are against teams that gave up fewer than 20 fantasy points to wideouts.

30. Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans (20.74 points):
Home:Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets
Away:Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers
2013 Outlook: Whether it's Britt (59th) or Kendall Wright who emerges into the better fantasy option, the lead wide receiver in Tennessee will not be met with a favorable schedule. The Titans don't play a single team that allowed more than 26 fantasy points per game to wideouts last season, and nine of their opponents gave up an average of fewer than 20 points. Britt and Wright both have potential, but neither should be drafted as more than a No. 4 fantasy option this season.

31. Tavon Austin, St. Louis Rams (20.48 points):
Home:Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Chicago Bears
Away:Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys
2013 Outlook: Austin and Chris Givens (53rd) have some deep sleeper appeal in 2013, as the Rams lost Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson. Unfortunately, playing in a division that includes the 49ers (2), Seahawks (2) and Cardinals (2) is enough to stick a fork in the schedule of any wide receiver. The Rams will play in just two games against teams that allowed 25-plus fantasy points per game to the position in 2012, while nine opponents gave up an average of fewer than 20 points.

32. Danny Amendola, New England Patriots (20.14 points):
Home:Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos
Away:Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans
2013 Outlook: Amendola (58th) has replaced Welker as the most valuable fantasy receiver in New England, and will play nine games against teams that gave up an average of fewer than 20 fantasy points per game to wideouts in 2012. That list includes the Jets (2), Steelers, Broncos, Bengals and Falcons. Of course, Amendola will also have a huge advantage over most other NFL wideouts -- Tom Brady is his new quarterback, and he has the skills to shred even the toughest pass defenses.

Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Have a burning question on anything fantasy related? Tweet it to @Michael_Fabiano or send a question via Facebook!

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