Most likely to win first Super Bowl in 2025 NFL season? Ranking 12 teams that lack Lombardi Trophy

Everyone knows the Bills’ story: four straight Super Bowl appearances, no victories. But that doesn’t tell it all. Buffalo has played multiple playoff games each of the past five seasons, losing twice to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game in that span. Painfully close to a dream deferred, yet still so far from the elusive rings.

But with Josh Allen, those dreams can’t be shelved. The reigning league MVP is at least as talented as the recent championship quarterbacks. He’s in his prime at age 29, supported by a top-tier offensive line, promising skill-position weapons and a creative play-caller in Joe Brady.

Whether the defense can hold up its end of the bargain is another question. The Bills added reinforcements to the defensive line and secondary, their two most vulnerable areas. The challenge will be getting the rookies up to speed as quickly as possible; with Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi both facing six-game suspensions (and Joey Bosa encountering more health issues), Buffalo's defensive depth could be thin early in the season.

Thankfully, the regular-season schedule appears manageable, even with some tough games, and Buffalo is king of the AFC East hill until proven otherwise. With a pretty loaded roster, the 2025 Bills have a real opportunity to fulfill their Super Bowl dreams.

The Lions have been as close to hitting the Super Bowl the past two seasons as they've been for the past 30-plus years, reaching the NFC Championship Game in the 2023 campaign and earning the conference's top seed last season. But can Detroit seriously compete for a third straight season after losing coordinators Ben Johnson (whom they'll face twice a season) and Aaron Glenn?

This will be coach Dan Campbell's toughest challenge since establishing the Lions as contenders. The NFC North is among the stronger divisions, and the Lions must additionally face the Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Commanders, Eagles and Rams on the road this season. Aidan Hutchinson is coming off a significant leg injury, and Detroit needs to avoid another rash of health woes on defense. Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow's sudden retirement also weakens the interior O-line, which was already an area of concern.

With explosive talent on offense and better depth on defense -- along with excellent special teams -- the Lions have the firepower to hold their own against almost any team in the league. They scored at least 31 points in 11 games last season and have established themselves as one of the more aggressive NFL outfits in recent memory.

There's a path for the Lions to reach their first Super Bowl ever, but it will be a tough one. They're not sneaking up on anyone any longer. Can the elite offensive core of playmakers and an improved defensive performance be enough to withstand the tough sledding? If so, it could be a historic season in Detroit.

The Vikings took a nine-game winning streak into Week 18 this past January, giving them the opportunity to earn the NFC's No. 1 overall seed and complete just the ninth 15-win regular season in league history. But the brilliant campaign abruptly went up in smoke when the Vikes suffered a blowout loss to the Lions before getting blasted again by the Rams on Wild Card Weekend.

A change at quarterback could help get the team over the top. Or it could lead to growing pains, even for what appears to be a very talented team.

The Vikings arguably boast their best roster in the Kevin O'Connell era but face uncertainty with QB J.J. McCarthy, a top-10 pick who just missed his entire rookie season due to a preseason knee injury. Easing the transition for McCarthy is a potent offense featuring Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, a strong line and more variety in the backfield. That O'Connell is regarded as one of the great QB shepherds can't be overlooked. 

The defense, bolstered by the free-agent signings of Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, has a dominant front seven, though the secondary raises some concerns. There also are some special teams worries, with the Vikings finishing toward the bottom of most of those rankings last season. As with the Lions and other NFC North teams, Minnesota's schedule is a bear -- arguably tougher than last year's slate.

Gauging how close the Vikings are to a Lombardi Trophy can't accurately be assessed until we see more of McCarthy. For all we know, he could become the rare first-year starter to lead a Super Bowl run, a la Kurt Warner or Tom Brady. Or McCarthy could be a serious work in progress. This is a team with a wide range of potential outcomes over the next few seasons, but Minnesota should be competitive.

The Bengals are 0-3 in Super Bowls, including one narrow loss four Februarys ago. Of course, they've stumbled to 9-8 playoff-free seasons in each of the past two years. Unlike in 2023, last season's record can't be blamed on a Joe Burrow injury. The Bengals' defense cratered in 2024, leading to seven one-score losses.

Nonetheless, Cincinnati signed WRs Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to long-term deals, taking another legitimate crack at a Super Bowl run. Along with Burrow, those three players will make up about one-third of the team's salary cap in 2025. They help comprise an offense that could gun for a 500-point season. But can the Bengals keep from giving up that many points? They've sunk plenty of resources into that side of the ball, with a slew of recent Day 1 and 2 draft picks on the roster, but the picture remains incomplete until new coordinator Al Golden proves otherwise. The team also remains at loggerheads with DE Trey Hendrickson, arguably its best defender, over a new contract.

Are the Bengals capable of a Super Bowl run? With Burrow and his elite weapons, absolutely -- but it's contingent on the defense making notable improvement. Cincy must also survive the thorny AFC North and withstand a loaded AFC field just to get there. The Bengals' chances aren't remote, but they must strike while Burrow -- who has endured his share of injuries -- remains in his physical prime.

The Texans seemed to take a small step back last regular season after their 2023 breakthrough, but two stronger showings in the playoffs might have swung the pendulum back in the right direction.

This offseason, Houston made significant changes to the roster at wide receiver, along the offensive line and in the secondary. Will it pay off? With C.J. Stroud entering Year 3, the Texans expect to be competitive. The back-to-back reigning AFC South champs should again be the favorites in the division. Houston's schedule appears competitive but not daunting. DeMeco Ryans looks the part of a very capable young coach, logging a pair of 10-win seasons with playoff victories in his first two years on the job.

The question is whether the Texans can elevate their performance level, having struggled to consistently beat their toughest opponents over the past two years. This season, they open with a tough pair of games (at Rams, vs. Bucs) and also face the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs and Chargers, with most of those contests on the road.

The hope, offensively, is that Stroud can bounce back and the OL and receivers will jell quickly. Defensively, the Texans finished top 10 in several major categories last season, but the red-zone performance ranked near the bottom of the league. Simple improvement in that one category could work wonders, but reaching a Super Bowl level might require significant offensive output, as well.

Last season, Jim Harbaugh returned to the NFL after nearly a decade at the University of Michigan and proved he hadn't forgotten how to coach in the league. After a few early stumbles, the Chargers went 8-3 down the stretch to make the playoffs, finishing the regular season with the eighth-best point differential (even better than the 14-3 Vikings' tally).

The postseason loss to the Texans exposed some weaknesses, however, and the Chargers took some hits this offseason. With Justin Herbert and the makings of a good offense, along with a defense that allowed the NFL's fewest points in 2024, the cupboard is hardly bare in Los Angeles. But Harbaugh will have his work cut out for him this season -- and theoretically for the next few years -- against tough competition in the division and the conference.

Herbert enjoyed one of his more efficient seasons last year, and the run game could be even more prolific with an Omarion Hampton-Najee Harris duo leading the way, assuming the offensive line takes strides. There's also more competition and talent at receiver and tight end.

But matching last season's defensive performance won't come easily, especially if the front and secondary don't come together quickly. Harbaugh has won nearly 70 percent of his NFL games and knows what it takes to get to a Super Bowl, but the league will be gunning for the Chargers this season -- and the path back to the playoffs won't be easy.

We're coming up on 17 years since the Cardinals' lone Super Bowl appearance, and they've made the playoffs a mere four times since then. Jonathan Gannon has steered the team back toward respectability again, and Arizona was briefly in the NFC West driver's seat last November. Yet the Cards finished 8-9, sinking down the stretch and raising the question of just how close they are to seriously contending.

Still, there's an intriguing thing brewing here that can't be dismissed. Kyler Murray, heading into his age-28 season, has experienced an up-and-down tenure in the desert, but the former No. 1 overall pick has shown elite bursts. Trey McBride is emerging as an elite weapon, and Marvin Harrison Jr. could soon join him as such. A strong backfield led by James Conner and a sneaky-good O-line round out a very capable offense.

Defensively, there were big concerns last year. But there are reasons to be hopeful with that unit in this coming fall, given the free-agent additions of Josh Sweat and Dalvin Tomlinson and six draft picks on defense, led by first-round pick Walter Nolen and second-rounder Will Johnson. And don't forget: 2024 first-rounder Darius Robinson and trade acquisition Baron Browning combined to play just 14 games for Arizona last season, so they can be viewed as bonus additions of sorts.

Perhaps this team remains a year away from making significant noise, but don't overlook Arizona's ascension. Even in the tough NFC West, the arrow appears to be pointing upward.

The Falcons once again find themselves amid a transition, shifting from Kirk Cousins to Michael Penix Jr. -- with Cousins still on the roster. The move makes sense from football and financial standpoints, but the Penix rollout could take some patience. 

Penix will be fairly well insulated. The second-year pro is protected by an offensive line made up of several former high draft picks, and talented skill players abound in Atlanta: Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, as well as the enigmatic Kyle Pitts. Even with Pitts' inconsistencies and a lack of depth at receiver, this is a group with which Penix eventually can -- or perhaps should -- thrive. But how quickly might that occur? 

Defensively, there are major changes to the front, which lost longtime stalwart Grady Jarrett and others while adding first-rounders Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. The rookies should add some much-needed pass-rush juice, but this group could be vulnerable to the run. The secondary looks to be in fine shape if some cornerback depth is established. 

The Falcons might be a threat to challenge the Bucs in the NFC South, but a Super Bowl run? I can't yet go there for this season. The significant changes on both sides of the ball, along with last season's kicking concerns carrying over, make it tough to project this team hurtling toward a title run in the immediate future.

Jacksonville pulled off one of the biggest shockers of the 2025 NFL Draft, trading up for two-way star Travis Hunter. It could be a brilliant stroke of ingenuity, essentially getting two players in one, or it could be a massive overreach by first-year GM James Gladstone. In a way, the Hunter move encapsulates the current state of the Jaguars: plenty of promise but too few truly bankable, known assets.

A year or two from now, the Jaguars could be the talk of the NFL. Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr. could be one of the most dangerous WR pairs in the league, and Trevor Lawrence can't yet be written off as a disappointment. If new head coach Liam Coen can do for Lawrence what, say, Sean McVay initially did for Jared Goff, Jacksonville's turnaround could happen quicker than anyone could imagine. 

There are also some building blocks in place on defense with Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker and Tyson Campbell. I'll wait to include Hunter on that list until we've seen him cover some NFL players, but it's clear the Jaguars want to see just how much the young man can do out there. The turnaround on defense might take longer, but there's at least a foundation seemingly in place.

The Jaguars are a tricky team to evaluate long term. We've only seen Coen and Gladstone in action for a few months. The division is winnable in the short term, Hunter is potentially a unicorn of a prospect, and there are some untapped resources on this roster. But chasing a championship? The Jags have only come even close a few times in their history, and it might be at least a few more years before they're able to do so again.

The outlook for the Panthers' eventual championship hopes looked a lot worse midway through the 2024 campaign. Bryce Young's late-season surge, leading three overtime victories and a near-upset of the Eagles in Philly, has helped reverse a painfully slow start to his Carolina career. 

Young hasn't answered all of the questions about him, and the Panthers paid a pretty penny to get him, but he appears on the right track. Adding first-round wideout Tetairoa McMillan could speed up Young's ascension, as could the continued development of second-year receivers Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker. A deep backfield and an O-line that just showed substantial improvement also portend offensive gains.

Defensively, however, the Panthers still have a large hole to dig themselves out of. They're coming off a season in which they allowed the most points in NFL history, yielding 30-plus in 10 games. DT Derrick Brown's return is massive, and rookie edges Nic Scourton and Princely Umanmielen could boost the pass rush. All three levels of the defense received help this offseason, but it's still a tall task for coordinator Ejiro Evero to make major one-year improvements.

Realistically, the Panthers won't be title contenders in 2025, but there's at least a pathway to respectability with Young's continued development. He might never be a quarterback who can overcome his own team's faulty defense, and Young's supporting cast must do its part for Carolina to become more than a 20-point scoring unit. It'll be a process.

New GM Mike Borgonzi seemingly settled on QB Cam Ward about a month prior to this past April's draft, and all signs point toward the No. 1 overall pick being the favorite as the Week 1 starter. But any talk about the Titans being Super Bowl contenders in Ward's rookie season -- as good as he might be -- is almost certainly foolish chatter.

For the Titans, picking Ward is about restarting the clock. They're now in a five-year window to return to contention and build toward a championship-level roster. Tennessee, which was outscored by an average of almost nine points a game, remains in the infancy stages of that operation. 

If there's a silver lining, it's that the Titans could improve dramatically in the pass game. They were horribly inefficient throwing the ball last season, and Ward -- along with some reliable receivers and the makings of a respectable offensive line -- can improve that right away. There will be growing pains, of course, but in a weaker division, it might translate to more wins.

But without taking advantage of the AFC South (the Titans are 2-10 vs. division opponents over the past two years) or winning more at home (1-7 under Brian Callahan last season), Tennessee will be stuck as a second- or third-tier club. And it can't all be on Ward's plate to improve, either, as the defense and special teams also have major ground they must make up. This could take some time, but Ward should change the team's longer-term trajectory.

Cleveland's strange quarterback history took another odd turn this offseason with the acquisition of Kenny Pickett, the return of Joe Flacco and the drafting of two (2) young quarterbacks, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. It's not the way most of us imagined the depth chart being filled out, but all the Browns have to do is hit on one of those passers. Easier said than done, if you know anything about this team. But let's not dismiss the possibility that one of Gabriel, Sanders or Pickett emerges and leads this team back on the right track. After all, Kevin Stefanski has won two Coach of the Year awards, leading the Browns to two 11-win seasons in his first five years on the job. Stefanski's Browns have been competitive with mostly capable -- but hardly dominant -- QB play.

The Browns opted to step up and keep Myles Garrett around long term, and they added two more potentially impactful pieces -- rookies Mason Graham and Carson Schwesinger -- to a defense that could rebound closer to 2023 levels. The draft also delivered offensive hope with RBs Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson, TE Harold Fannin Jr. and the two aforementioned quarterbacks.

Still, this will be a multi-year process. The draft haul Cleveland received from Jacksonville in the Travis Hunter deal also will help boost the talent pool over the coming years, even if some of that value will be soaked up by the negative drain that has been the Deshaun Watson trade. Browns fans will only drink so much Kool-Aid at this point, and there's no guarantee the draft-and-develop plan will bear enough fruit, but there's at least some strands of hope on which to grab again.