2025 NFL season: Projecting performances of quarterbacks who changed teams in offseason

With Vikings in 2024: 17 games (all starts) | 66.2 pct | 4,319 pass yds | 7.9 ypa | 35 pass TD | 12 INT | 212 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 8 fumbles

2025 numbers will be: WORSE

What a difference a year makes. Darnold was reborn under Kevin O'Connell in Minnesota, finally looking like the passer many envisioned when he entered the NFL way back in 2018. Better late than never.

The Seahawks' previous experience with a New York Jets washout worked so well that they're diving back into that deep well. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak spent the 2023 season with Darnold in San Francisco. The relationship and some scheme familiarities for the QB should be beneficial.

Despite those positives, I'm not going to project Darnold to double down on a career year. He's going from a near-ideal offense to one with question marks at receiver and interior O-line. That doesn't mean I think he's going to crater, either.

Darnold deserves immense credit for reclaiming a career that had been battered from the very start. The man missed games for mononucleosis, for Pete's sake. He could have slid into oblivion, and the NFL world wouldn't have blinked. It's eaten more talented players alive.

Last year, Darnold displayed an ability to make the right read and showed fearlessness zipping the ball into traffic. All those glowing pre-draft reports finally looked accurate. Then came the disastrous final two games, when it looked like his ghosts of yore returned. The reality is that he's probably somewhere in the middle -- and his new contract suggested as much.

The biggest question in Seattle is whether the interior offensive line, led by first-round pick Grey Zabel, can protect Darnold enough for him to thrive. If so, the match with Kubiak should be a good one. If they struggle, we're likely to see that Week 18 Darnold, with a lot of high passes while he gets crushed by defenders.

With Seahawks in 2024: 17 games (all starts) | 70.4 pct | 4,320 pass yds | 7.5 ypa | 21 pass TD | 15 INT | 272 rush yds | 2 rush TD | 9 fumbles

2025 numbers will be: BETTER

With the Seahawks electing to get younger and -- slightly -- cheaper at quarterback, Smith reunites with Pete Carroll, under whom he earned the only two Pro Bowl nods of his career.

Smith didn't get enough credit for keeping the Seahawks offense afloat behind a porous offensive line. The interceptions, particularly in the red zone, were rough, but most quarterbacks become ineffective when battered as much as Smith was last year.

When stating that I expect better numbers from Smith, I don't think he'll pass for another career high in yardage, as I'm anticipating the Raiders to be more balanced. However, I do expect Smith's efficiency numbers to improve. His -.02 EPA per dropback should improve while he cuts down on the backbreaking INTs. And the 53.8 QBR from 2024 should get back into the 60s, where it was when he was with Carroll.

I am interested in the fit with Raiders offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. A once-ballyhooed coach when he entered the NFL in 2013, Kelly created nary a buzz after returning to the pro game. Whereas once there were debates about Kelly and his style, now it's mostly a shrug. How will his system mesh with Smith's ability to assess at the line of scrimmage and make pre-snap reads?

The weaponry surrounding Smith is a fascinating collection. Tight end Brock Bowers is a No. 1 target. First-round running back Ashton Jeanty should make his life easier. The WR crew has some questions, but Jakobi Meyers is underrated and second-round pick Jack Bech brings a physical style. If Smith is protected better than he was last year, he can dramatically improve a Raiders offense that has been stuck in the mud for the past two years.

With Steelers in 2024: 10 games (6 starts) | 65.8 pct | 1,106 pass yds | 6.9 ypa | 5 pass TD | 1 INT | 289 rush yds | 5 rush TD | 6 fumbles

2025 numbers will be: BETTER

The Jets inked Fields to a two-year deal, handed him the starting gig and then avoided adding any competition that might undermine the former first-rounder's standing. Tyrod Taylor remains a trusty vet who can step in if things go awry, but it's clear that Fields is the pilot for 2025.

Based solely on the fact that he won't get ripped from the starting lineup after six games, his numbers will be better -- barring another injury that plagued him early in his career.

Fields enters a pivotal season. Soaring to new heights will confirm his talent and halt the Jets' endless string of quarterback follies. Break that strand, and his leash will be long in New York. Crash and burn, whether through ineffective play or injury, and his chances of getting another clear path to a starting role will evaporate.

The 26-year-old is still an electric playmaker with his feet, able to take any play to the house. However, his passing attack remains in question. He made some strides in 2023, but last year in Pittsburgh, he looked restricted and misfired on far too many field-stretching throws. At times it looked like a quarterback stifled, worried more about avoiding an error than making a play. The Steelers also didn't use his legs as much as I expected under Arthur Smith.

New York needs to get Fields back to being a threat with his feet while also developing his pocket ability. That's no easy task.

New Jets offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand is a wild card. He spent five seasons with the Detroit Lions, including the past two as passing game coordinator. He's never called plays in the NFL, and his QB with the Lions was Jared Goff, who, as far as dual-threat forces go, is about the polar opposite of Fields. We can surmise Gang Green will be a run-heavy club, but until training camp, we can't be certain what the plan will be for Fields and the offense. It should be one of the more interesting storylines as late July approaches.

With Steelers in 2024: 11 games (all starts) | 63.7 pct | 2,482 pass yds | 7.4 ypa | 16 pass TD | 5 INT | 155 rush yds | 2 rush TD | 5 fumbles

2025 numbers will be: WORSE

With Browns in 2024: 12 games (7 starts) | 61.1 pct | 2,121 pass yds | 7.2 ypa | 13 pass TD | 12 INT | 83 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 5 fumbles

2025 numbers will be: WORSE

Brian Daboll might have already named Wilson the starter, but I'm going to keep writing that one in pencil. Nothing Wilson has done in the past three years has indicated he should be handed a starting job at this stage.

There were times in the middle of last season in Pittsburgh when Wilson moved the offense well, and he can still splash a deep ball now and again. However, far too often his operations are rickety. He misfires and misreads too frequently, particularly under duress. One thing we know about seemingly every aging quarterback is that they hate to take hits. Whereas some older QBs simply speed up their quick game, Wilson has become erratic and missed plays that were available.

Winston, on the flip side, will have some massive games, like we saw in Cleveland. But the turnovers will persist. Chaos is part of the experience. He's far more entertaining than Wilson but also less predictable.

Neither veteran, in my book, is a sure thing. Wilson's contract and Daboll's comments give him the first shot. Given the pressure on the coaching staff and front office, I'd bet on Jaxson Dart appearing earlier than expected. If the rookie flashes at all during camp and preseason, the vocal demand in New York to give the first-rounder a chance to learn under fire will ramp up.

With Giants in 2024: 10 games (all starts) | 63.3 pct | 2,070 pass yds | 6.1 ypa | 8 pass TD | 7 INT | 265 rush yds | 2 rush TD | 4 fumbles

2025 numbers will be: WORSE

Jones was brought in to light a fire under Anthony Richardson. It would not be a stunner if Jones won the QB1 gig over the talented but erratic Richardson. But neither is exactly reliable.

Jones' time in New York wasn't pretty, and his scatter-shot passing doesn't promise better results than Richardson, but at least he can say he's won a playoff game in his career. Jones did have brief moments when protected well, showing he could hit targets in stride, and his dual-threat ability was a problem for defenses. Outside of 2022, however, there isn't much to write home about, with a 70:47 career touchdown-to-interception ratio and 50 career fumbles.

When a team brings in a veteran to push a young player, it's usually an indicator that they're ready to move on. However, the Colts are heavily invested in Richardson. The youngster will likely get every opportunity to prove he's grown from last year's disaster. I think that desperation gives Richardson one more shot to open the season. If he stumbles, Jones at least gives Shane Steichen a veteran who can run the offense.

With Eagles in 2024: 5 games (1 start) | 59.5 pct | 291 pass yds | 6.9 ypa | 2 pass TD | 1 INT | 15 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 1 fumble

2025 numbers will be: BETTER

With Colts in 2024: 8 games (6 starts) | 65.3 pct | 1,761 pass yds | 7.1 ypa | 12 pass TD | 7 INT | 26 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 4 fumbles

2025 numbers will be: WORSE

The Browns quarterback competition might not be elegant, but it will certainly be interesting. The rookies, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, will get most of the attention this offseason, but my focus here is on the veterans.

Pickett is a former first-rounder who quickly washed out of Pittsburgh even though the Steelers didn’t have a clear long-term upgrade. He has been inconsistent and doesn't own a field-stretching arm. His best attribute is accuracy, yet he's only a career 62.4 percent passer. He's fine as a spot starter like he was in Philly last year, but his tools aren't top-starter-caliber. Pickett intends to win the starting job, but he'll have to be more consistent in Cleveland than he was in Pittsburgh.

Flacco, meanwhile, continues to plug along at 40 years old. As with any aging QB, things can get ugly when they go sideways -- he’s posted a 3.3 percent interception rate the past two regular seasons. However, he knows Kevin Stefanski's offense well and has run the system better than any other signal-caller in the past three campaigns. Flacco's veteran presence and willingness to take shots downfield fit well in a run-first Cleveland offense. That ability to stretch the field could push him ahead in the competition during training camp.

One of the rookies could dazzle during camp and swipe the gig, but with games against two division foes out of the gate (Cincinnati and Baltimore), I'd expect Stefanski to trust a veteran to open the season. It's possible that whichever vet doesn't win the Week 1 gig could be dangled in a roster-cutdown trade to a team looking for a veteran -- say, for instance, down in New Orleans, where Kellen Moore's QB room is uber-young.

With Jets in 2024: 17 games (all starts) | 63.0 pct | 3,897 pass yds | 6.7 ypa | 28 pass TD | 11 INT | 107 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 5 fumbles

With Titans in 2024: 8 games (5 starts) | 64.0 pct | 1,530 pass yds | 6.7 ypa | 9 pass TD | 9 INT | 106 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 5 fumbles

With Dolphins in 2024: 3 games (1 start) | 63.6 pct | 187 pass yds | 5.7 ypa | 0 pass TD | 0 INT | 4 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 2 fumbles

The NFL world continues to wait to hear whether Rodgers will head to Pittsburgh. Indicators suggest that there will indeed be a union between the four-time NFL MVP and the Steelers, but until the contract is signed, nothing can be assumed.

The Rodgers-Pittsburgh pairing makes sense on paper. Even in a diminished state, he'd represent the best QB the Steelers have had since Ben Roethlisberger. Rodgers is already building rapport with DK Metcalf this offseason, and the combo could eat on back-shoulder throws.

Meanwhile, the 41-year-old wants to put the New York disaster in his rearview and prove he can still cook. His fastball might not be as lively anymore, but he can pull it out for big spots. In the right offense, he can still move the ball.

Things get dicey if Rodgers ultimately spurns the Steelers. Rudolph played solidly in Pittsburgh at the end of the 2023 season. However, he got exposed in five starts in Tennessee last year, tossing 9 TDs and 9 INTs behind a horrible offensive line. He could probably keep the Steelers afloat if needed, but a run to the postseason would be unlikely.

With the selection of Will Howard in the sixth round of this year’s draft, Thompson is most likely an offseason arm, with or without Rodgers.

With Raiders in 2024: 10 games (9 starts) | 66.3 pct | 2,013 pass yds | 6.6 ypa | 9 pass TD | 10 INT | 58 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 6 fumbles

With Browns in 2024: 1 game (1 start) | 51.6 pct | 170 pass yds | 5.5 ypa | 1 pass TD | 2 INT | 2 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 0 fumbles

The battle to potentially start in Week 18! Minshew offers experience if Patrick Mahomes misses games due to injury for the first time since 2019.

With Cowboys in 2024: 12 games (8 starts) | 60.7 pct | 1,844 pass yds | 6.0 ypa | 12 pass TD | 5 INT | 18 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 9 fumbles

Rush held his own replacing Dak Prescott, going 4-4 in eight starts for Dallas last season. His fit in Baltimore is interesting. The pocket passer’s game is nothing like that of two-time MVP Lamar Jackson. How the Ravens would adjust the offense if Rush is called on would be a compelling twist.

With Jaguars in 2024: 10 games (7 starts) | 65.3 pct | 1,672 pass yds | 6.4 ypa | 8 pass TD | 8 INT | 92 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 2 fumbles

Jones finally joins Kyle Shanahan after all those rumors that the 49ers' coach liked the former Alabama QB leading up to the 2021 NFL Draft. Jones is one injury to the newly paid Brock Purdy away from experiencing how things might have been in an alternate universe.

With Patriots in 2024: 8 games (5 starts) | 59.0 pct | 826 pass yds | 5.1 ypa | 2 pass TD | 1 INT | 62 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 4 fumbles

His stint as a stand-in for Drake Maye didn't go well last year behind the worst offensive line in football, but Brissett can still lead an offense and get the ball out on time. He's solid insurance if Kyler Murray goes down with another injury.

With Giants in 2024: 8 games (5 starts) | 59.1 pct | 1,071 pass yds | 5.9 ypa | 6 pass TD | 5 INT | 133 rush yds | 2 rush TD | 5 fumbles

Lock couldn't take a step forward when given a chance to start for the Giants last year. He heads back to Seattle, where he played in 2022-2023, to back up Sam Darnold. Lock's roster spot could depend on how 2025 third-round pick Jalen Milroe performs this offseason.

With Browns in 2024: 7 games (2 starts) | 51.7 pct | 440 pass yds | 3.7 ypa | 0 pass TD | 6 INT | 122 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 3 fumbles

DTR is a camp arm and practice-squad candidate for the Eagles. Tanner McKee is in line for the backup job and 2025 sixth-round pick Kyle McCord is a developmental guy in Philly.

With 49ers in 2024: 2 games (1 start) | 68.1 pct | 361 pass yds | 7.7 ypa | 2 pass TD | 2 INT | 24 rush yds | 2 rush TD | 2 fumbles

The “Passtronaut” came back to earth after a wild 2023. He should be a good ear for Drake Maye, and can stand in for a week or two if injury strikes the young QB.

With 49ers in 2024: 3 games (1 start) | 56.7 pct | 199 pass yds | 6.6 ypa | 1 pass TD | 2 INT | 4 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 2 fumbles

With Dolphins and Giants in 2024: 3 games | 54.0 pct | 276 pass yds | 5.5 ypa | 1 pass TD | 1 INT | 9 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 0 fumbles

If Allen or Boyle sees the field for Tennessee this season, chances are something went horrifically wrong in Cam Ward's rookie year. Unless the Titans eventually trade Will Levis, one or both players could be training camp cuts.

With Cowboys in 2024: 4 games (1 start) | 61.0 pct | 266 pass yds | 6.5 ypa | 0 pass TD | 1 INT | 41 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 0 fumbles

Lance threw just 41 passes in four games with the Cowboys, but he did post 244 yards through the air in his Week 18 start. We'll see if he can push Taylor Heinicke for the Chargers’ backup job. This could be Lance's last chance to prove he deserves a spot in the league.

With Ravens in 2024: 6 games | 66.7 pct | 17 pass yds | 5.7 ypa | 0 pass TD | 0 INT | 1 rush yd | 0 rush TD | 0 fumbles

Back in Washington seven years after his first stint with the team, it's unlikely Johnson will push Marcus Mariota for the backup job behind star Jayden Daniels.

With Vikings in 2024: 4 games | 100 pct | 38 pass yds | 19.0 ypa | 0 pass TD | 0 INT | -2 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 0 fumbles

Mullens is a replacement-level talent, but he doesn't lack guts in the pocket. After Trevor Lawrence's injury-plagued 2024, the Jaguars must hope they won't see as much of the backup this time around.

With Seahawks in 2024: 2 games | 35.7 pct | 24 pass yds | 1.7 ypa | 0 pass TD | 1 INT | 2 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 0 fumbles

Howell is next in line for a potential career renaissance under Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell. J.J. McCarthy is the lead man in Minnesota, and while the team's decision-makers speak glowingly about the 2024 first-round pick, he has yet to take a snap in a regular-season game. McCarthy still has to prove himself. Howell flashed a bit in 18 starts over two seasons in Washington, but he played poorly in brief relief of Geno Smith late last year in Seattle.

With Steelers in 2024: 1 game | 100 pct | 19 pass yds | 19.0 ypa | 0 pass TD | 0 INT | 0 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 0 fumbles

Allen feels like an offseason arm, but then again, is Hendon Hooker's job solidified? The Lions leapfrogged him last postseason for Teddy Bridgewater, who had just come out of retirement.

With Patriots in 2024: 1 game | 75.9 pct | 241 pass yds | 8.3 ypa | 1 pass TD | 0 INT | 16 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 1 fumble

Flash in the pan or talented playmaker who could develop into more? Milton will make the Cowboys' preseason games more exciting. If Dak Prescott, coming off an injury, misses significant time again, can Milton hold the fort? There is no more intriguing situation on this list of backups.

With Colts in 2024: No stats.

Learning under Sean Payton is always a good gig if you can get it. The Broncos rostered three QBs last year -- Bo Nix, Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson. We'll see if they do so again with Ehlinger or sneak him onto the practice squad.

With Texans in 2024: No stats.

A veteran voice for Caleb Williams -- one he probably could have used last year. Keenum has made four starts and thrown 142 passes since the start of the 2020 season.

With Chargers in 2024: No stats.

Stick could be promoted to QB2 behind Michael Penix Jr. if the Falcons ever trade Kirk Cousins.

With Broncos in 2024: No stats.

Tua Tagovailoa has played a full slate of games only once in five seasons. If he misses any time in 2025, we could see what kind of strides Wilson has made after learning from Mike McDaniel and spending one year under Sean Payton in Denver. Of course, that's assuming rookie Quinn Ewers doesn't beat Wilson out for the backup job.