No one had a clue.
That was the read on the 2017 NFL Draftbefore Round 1 began, and Thursday's wild night did not disappoint.
The receiver class was supposed to be lacking at the top end, yet three wideouts were selected in the top nine. This quarterback class was supposed to lack any player resembling a sure thing -- so, of course, three teams, including two playoff teams, traded up to take a signal-caller within the first 12 picks.
Philadelphia was treated to one of the most entertaining first rounds we've seen in a long time.
Let's break it all down:
Winners
First-round receivers: So much for this class not having a true No. 1 overall receiver. Not only did Corey Davis (drafted fifth overall by the Titans), Mike Williams (seventh overall by the Chargers) and John Ross (ninth overall by the Bengals) get taken within the first 10 picks, but they all landed in perfect situations to produce.
Davis gives Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota a physical outside receiver who can make plays after the catch. Mike Williams is an incredible jump-ball receiver who will get to play in Los Angeles with Philip Rivers, one of the most aggressive vertical passers in football. Finally, Ross will see the single coverage that comes with one of the best receiver gigs in football: playing opposite A.J. Green in Cincinnati.
Non-traditional general managers:Cleveland Browns executive vice president Sashi Brown and San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch come from very differentbackgrounds, relative to both each other and most typical NFL decision-makers. They both made Round 1 look easy on Thursday.
Lynch -- the former Pro Bowl safety working his first front-office job -- probably couldn't believe how well his first draft night as a GM went. Not only did he reportedly convince multiple teams that they needed to deal with him at No. 2 overall to get quarterback Mitch Trubisky, but he only had to move down one spot to pick up two extra third-round picks and a fourth-rounder from the Chicago Bears -- and he still landed Solomon Thomas, one of the highest-rated prospects in the class. Lynch used the fourth-round pick acquired from the Bearsto move back into the first round and draft linebacker Reuben Foster at No. 31 overall. The 49ers added two top-five talents in Thomas and Foster, with NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah calling Foster the best pick in the draft. Lynch, for his part, said Thomas and Foster were two of the top three players on his board.
The Brownswound up with three first-round picks and now have two in hand for next year. Unlike the rest of this draft, they didn't force things at quarterback. After some misdirection, Cleveland took the best player in the draft in Texas A&M pass rusher Myles Garrett first overall. No one will ever know if the Browns were among the teams trying to trade up with Lynch for Trubisky at No. 2, but Cleveland wisely pivoted. They ended up adding Michigan safety Jabrill Peppers (No. 25 overall) and high-ceiling Miami tight end David Njoku (No. 29) and will head into next year's draft with Houston's top two picks. Sashi Brown owns Texans GM Rick Smith, or at least his future draft choices.
The Colts' defensive overhaul: New Indianapolis GM Chris Ballard has a vision, and he's executing it beautifully. Thursday's selection of Ohio State safety Malik Hooker was a fantastic value at No. 15 overall and immediately improves a woeful secondary. Since the start of March, Ballard has added defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins, linebackers Jabaal Sheard, John Simon and Sean Spence and defensive end Margus Hunt. No team has done a better job improving its toughness and defensive depth this offseason.
Running back value: It wasn't so long ago that promising prospects like Le'Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy and Jeremy Hill had to wait deep into the second round to get selected. Now someone like Christian McCaffrey, a 203-pound back unlikely to run between the tackles very much at the NFL level, can go No. 8 overall to the Panthers. The new NFL is about space and versatility. McCaffrey might have been a little-used role player 20 years ago, but now he's getting drafted as a star.
While the Panthers try to expand their offensive identity with McCaffrey, new Jaguars grand poohbah Tom Coughlin made a strong mission statement by rubber-stamping bruising LSU back Leonard Fournette as the No. 4 overall pick. Quarterback Blake Bortles' future in Jacksonville is a mystery, but it's safe to say the Jaguars now run through Fournette.
Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers: It's been an incredible offseason for Winston, who saw the Bucs add tight end O.J. Howard on Thursday after picking up DeSean Jackson in free agency. Tampa's offense is loaded, just in time for the Buccaneers' "Hard Knocks" close-up.
The city of Philadelphia: The crowd and the setting Thursday set a new draft-night standard. The NFL might have to run this back.
Losers
Alex Smith, Mike Glennon and Tom Savage:Alex Smith has been here before. He did a laudable job holding off Colin Kaepernick for a while in San Francisco, but the Chiefs' veteran QB is turning 33 years old next month and is apparently again doubted within his own building.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid took pains to say that the team's new draft pick, Patrick Mahomes, will need time to develop, but the Chiefs didn't give up two first-round picks for the former Texas Tech quarterback to sit on the bench forever. This Kansas City squad has already proven it's playoff ready, and Mahomes -- like Kaepernick once did in San Francisco -- will be the guy who gets a chance to seize the reins from Smith and take it over the top.
Smith saw this coming. Mike Glennon, on the other hand, must have been blindsided Thursday. Glennon signed a "$45 million" contract with Chicago in March that, upon closer examination, was revealed to be essentially a one-year tryout. Glennon only has $2.5 million guaranteed in the 2018 season, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he's no longer on the Bears by then.
At least Glennon got paid before potentially getting replaced. Texans coach Bill O'Brien insisted Thursday night that Tom Savage is still the Texans' starting quarterback, but it will only be a matter of time before No. 12 overall pick Deshaun Watson takes over. Give GM Rick Smith credit for creating a second chance to make a career-defining quarterback pickup. Just don't give him too much credit.
Rick Smith, Texans GM: The books can finally be closed on the Brock Osweilerfiasco in Houston. It cost the Texans a lot of money, a chance to win a playoff game in Foxborough and Houston's first two picks in 2018. Smith has been scrambling to clean up the Osweiler mess all offseason and had to give away part of the team's future to do so.
John Fox's job security, Mitchell Trubisky and the entire city of Chicago: Fox is not exactly known for developing offensive talent, and now his primary job in 2017 is creating a productive atmosphere for No. 2 overall pick Mitch Trubisky. Developing an untested rookie QB and an untested starter in Glennon while trying to win games is going to be awfully difficult. The Bears also now have fewer draft picks to use to improve the team around Trubisky. Getting taken so early is a blessing for Trubisky's wallet, but he is set up for failure, along with his head coach. Having offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains and Cameron Meredith as your "No. 1 receiver" is not a recipe for success.
Saints' draft luck: The Chiefs traded ahead of New Orleans to take quarterback Patrick Mahomes, a player who many believed the Saints were eyeing with the No. 11 overall pick, at No. 10. (The trade would indicate the Chiefs believed that rumor, too.) The 49ers then traded ahead of New Orleans' No. 32 overall pick to take linebacker Reuben Foster, another player strongly connected to the Saints, at No. 31. While New Orleans landed two quality players in cornerback Marshon Lattimore and tackle Ryan Ramczyk, their night could have been a lot spicier.
