Time is a fickle friend. Early in the fantasy season, you had plenty of it to turn your team into a dangerous one. But now the days are getting shorter, and the wind has found her teeth (sorry, I channeled "American Dreams" there for a second). There are some players you can't afford to spend any more time on, while a couple, well, all they've done is give you time. Now I want to go watch "In Time" because I'm thinking about Justin Timberlake telling me I don't have enough of it left to make the playoffs. Tick tock, Clarice. It's time for Higher/Lower/Over/Under: Week 11 edition.
1: How many more years will Andre Johnson be a No. 1 fantasy WR? Under. Let's say I told you about Player X, who, through ten weeks, had two 100-yard games and 2 TDs. You would say "Is that Stephen Hill? Titus Young? Michael Crabtree?" Nope, it's Andre Johnson. And while you're not starting any of the other guys whose stats might be confused with him, you're not starting Johnson any more, either. I know I wrote about him a few weeks ago in HLOU, but it bears repeating that he's simply not worth a spot in your lineup any more.
2: How many more weeks until I actually get production from Ryan Mathews? Over. Boy are there a lot of fantasy analysts (me included) who thought this was going to be IT for Mathews this season. Instead, he's had one game with more than 80 yards rushing and just one touchdown. He's gone from a strong No. 2 RB to a strong flex, to a weak flex. Now, I'm contemplating options -- I'd rather go with Malcom Floyd or Sidney Rice, for example -- than trust Mathews. There's no breakaway threat, which is a big deal, but bigger is that they're not relying on him nearly as much as we expected.
3: How many more weeks until I can play Eli Manning again? Over. Eli will be back. The Giants are in a slump right now. Yes, it's a bad one, but they'll return. They're on a bye this week before taking on Green Bay -- after which a few generous matchups in the passing game come to pass. So I'd proceed like this: Keep playing Victor Cruz. Ahmad Bradshaw is a flex because it looks like he could be headed to a time-share with Andre Brown, who at the least is starting to vulture goal-line carries away from him. Hakeem Nicks is a decent flex as he's getting healthier, but sit Eli until he has his next breakout game. Or maybe two games.
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3: How many more weeks until I can play any Jets? Over. Seriously, just when I thought Shonn Greene would be relevant again, his 5.8 fantasy point day occurred on Sunday. But that's it. I mean really, that's it. The Jets are the biggest fantasy wasteland in the NFL right now, as they only have one player -- Greene -- who's worth considering starting. But, here's the silver lining: the Jets end the season with games against Jacksonville, Tennessee, San Diego and Buffalo. Greene can be your playoff MVP against those teams whose philosophy on stopping the run is optional.
10: Number of people I know who will be at the "Breaking Dawn Part II" premiere Friday night. Sad to say, over. I will not be one of them, even though twice now I've spent part of my birthday going to see one of the films in this series. You know the old saying -- "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, OK you fooled me again, but fool me three times? Forget it, I'm not going." It's not that I'm anti-"Twilight," I've read every one of the books. I'm just not going to spend $75 on a sitter and another $40 at the theater for a movie I can wait on. And to be honest, the ending of the final book really disappointed me. I haven't been this upset with an ending since the last season of "Deadwood."
15: How many fantasy points Nick Foles will be worth Sunday. Over, but not by much. I expect a 15 to 17-point day out of Foles, mainly because Andy Reid doesn't change his philosophy when Michael Vick is out. They still throw the football as much as they did before. And Foles seems like he has the physical tools to have a measure of success right away. (Meaning he's tall and can see over the offensive line.) Foles showed last week that Jeremy Maclin could be his go-to guy, so that makes Maclin worth a flex, and Foles can start for you this week if you're in a bind. I'm not saying start him over Carson Palmer, but you get what I'm saying.
50: How many "So Jason, why DID the Jets let Danny Woodhead go?" questions I'll get the rest of this week. Over. I wrote a column earlier this week illustrating how letting Woodhead go is a symptom of what ails the Jets. But as far as fantasy value goes, this is Stevan Ridley's show, and while Woodhead may give you the odd touchdown now and then, Ridley's the guy. He's going to get over 20 carries a game for the rest of the season and is a strong No. 1 fantasy RB. Brandon Bolden's suspension takes him out of the mix, and Shane Vereen isn't going to suddenly become a weapon. I know plenty of you are worried that the Ridley Rug will be taken out from under you. It won't.
50: Percent belief fantasy owners have in Christian Ponder. Under. GM Rick Spielman said this week the Vikings have 100 percent confidence in their QB. But fantasy owners? Maybe 40 percent. I kid my colleague Elliot Harrison about being on "Ponder Island," but it's true. He was all alone out of all of us on "NFL Fantasy Live" who liked him earlier this season. Then he took a boat off of Ponder Island for the last month before booking a return ticket after last week. Ponder's a curious itch in the fantasy game you want to scratch, but you can't. OK, so maybe it's more like poison ivy. He looks so tantalizing because he can make plays with his legs but he's just as capable of an 8-point day as he is a 20-point one. As the fantasy playoffs approach, I can't trust him because a sub-par week could crush me. Though I will send Elliot some sunscreen.
Jason Smith hosts NFL Fantasy Live on the NFL Network and writes fantasy and other pith for nfl.com. Talk to him on Twitter @howaboutafresca, and listen to his Fantasy Podcast with Michael Fabiano and Elliot Harrison every week on nfl.com. He only asks you never bring up when the Jets play poorly.
