Unfamiliar with the SAP Player Comparison Tool? Well it's about time you get acquainted! The tool can be a great asset for those tough roster decisions, whether you're dealing with start/sit conundrums, trade comparisons, or decisions on which players to pick up on the waiver wire, you can benefit by learning the ins and outs of the customizable tool. This week in what we like to call Fantasy Football Audibles, we take a look at three player comparisons to help you take some of the guesswork out of those mind-boggling roster determinations.
Here's a quick primer in the factors that the SAP Player Comparison Tool takes into consideration when analyzing players:
»Performance:player performance (NFL statistics and Fantasy points) from the current season
»Matchup:opponent-specific fantasy points against (FPA) data and matchup analysis
»Consistency:stability of historical player fantasy point production
»Upside:potential for significant fantasy point performance
»Intangibles:additional factors including injury status, weather, game location, team support and player rest
Who should I start at RB: Bilal Powell or Chris Ivory?
For the majority of the season, Ivory was locked in as a RB2 for fantasy owners, although his production was extremely inconsistent due to injuries and game script. Overall, his 1,164 yards from scrimmage and eight total touchdowns are enough to still rank him among top 10 fantasy backs for the season. Over the last month though, the tables have been turning in the Jets backfield -- in Bilal Powell's favor. Over the last month, Powell is fantasy's fifth-highest scoring running back behind only David Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte.
We used to think Powell was a low-volume PPR asset who really only had viable flex value in negative game scripts. But the Jets have won each of their last three contests, and Powell has far out-produced Ivory on nearly 20 fewer touches during that win streak. In the last three games alone, Powell has recorded 35 touches for 269 total yards and three touchdowns. Ivory has 52 touches, 218 total yards and zero touchdowns in that span. Powell has finished as the RB6, RB11 and RB11 in each of the last three weeks notching fantasy point totals of 16.8, 14.2 and 13.9 points in standard scoring. With 20 receptions in that span, has been a juggernaut in PPR formats, too. Ivory's only finish in the top 20 among running backs the last three weeks was when he posted over 100 yards against the Titans in Week 14.
The Jets face New England on Sunday in what is a must-win game for New York. If Ivory can't get going early against a Patriots defense that has been tough against the run this season (95.8 rush yards per game), it wouldn't be shocking if the Jets rolled with the hot hand of Powell, especially if they're down in the second half. For that reason I'm confident that Powell will outscore Ivory in fantasy for the fourth straight week. So if you're deciding between them, slot Powell into your lineup and don't look back.
Who should I start at WR: Calvin Johnson or Ted Ginn?
Yes, this was a real question. What universe are we living in? Oh, right. The fantasy football universe of 2015. Now it all makes sense.
Common sense says Calvin Johnson is the better play mainly because of name value and the fact that he's Calvin freaking Johnson, hence the Comparison Tool's results. But let's take a closer look at the numbers. Over the last month, both Johnson and Ted Ginn have 13 receptions, with Ginn having just one fewer target (27) than Megatron (28). There's just one glaring difference in these receivers' output in recent weeks ... consistency.
Ginn has been on fire with 20 or more fantasy points in each of his last three games, scoring two touchdowns in each of those contests. He's also racked up 285 yards on his 13 receptions compared to Johnson's 172. Ginn's touchdown total in the last month (six) doesn't seem like a huge margin above Johnson's (four) but when you factor in that three of Megatron's scores came in a single game on Thanksgiving things become a bit clearer. When translated into fantasy points, 66 percent of Johnson's 41.2 fantasy points were scored on Thanksgiving while Ginn has consistently put up huge numbers for three straight weeks.
Obviously as Carolina's deep threat, Ginn is a candidate for regression eventually (also, he drops a ridiculous amount of passes; See: Week 8). The same week that Johnson scored 27.3 fantasy points, Ginn was on the field for 74 percent of Carolina's offensive snaps against Dallas and failed to haul in a single reception. So there is always the possibility that Ginn comes crashing back to Earth and serves up a dud.
Another thing to keep in mind though, is that Johnson has been dealing with an ankle injury in recent weeks, and was basically a decoy with just one catch in each of his last two games. So while Johnson is historically the more consistent option and always a major threat in the red zone, his decreased role in the offense recently is a major concern. To put Johnson's step back over the last month into perspective, Golden Tate has hauled in 30 of his 34 targets for 218 yards and five touchdowns in the same span. Maybe it's because of his ankle or maybe Detroit's new offensive coordinator, Jim Bob Cooter, is simply more creative in finding ways for the Lions offense to produce other than funneling targets to Megatron. It's a sad but true reality: Ginn is a better play in the fantasy championship than Johnson.
Who should I start at D/ST: Denver Broncos or Kansas City Chiefs?
This is a much easier decision than you might think. Yes, the Broncos are the No. 1 D/ST in fantasy for the season and boast the best defense in the NFL this year in terms of total yards per game (279.9), rush yards per game (79.9), pass yards per game (200.0) and sacks (47). Denver is also second in the league with five defensive touchdowns this season. But if you peek at the unit's fantasy point totals since its Week 7 bye, there's only one double-digit outing on the log in the last eight games. Last week, the Steelers found a weakness and managed 34 points against them (Antonio Brown had a little something to do with it). Now, the Broncos face a Bengals offense that has firepower even with AJ McCarron under center. On the season, the Bengals are allowing the seventh-least fantasy points per game to opposing D/STs with a 5.21 average. Now, even though that number is much higher over the last two weeks with McCarron as the starting quarterback, I'm not convinced that Cincinnati is considered a favorable matchup.
As for Kansas City's D/ST, the unit has recorded fewer than double-digit fantasy points just four times the entire season. The Chiefs defense is playing out of its collective mind lately and has five double-digit games in the last six weeks. And remember earlier when I mentioned that Denver was second in the league in defensive touchdowns? Well, second only to Kansas City which has posted six scores on defense including four in the last five weeks and two just a week ago against Baltimore. Now, the Chiefs take on a Browns team that has allowed 10.79 fppg to opposing D/STs this season, the second-most in the league. Plus, the Chiefs are at home this week, and Arrowhead Stadium is not a fun place to play for opposing teams, let alone one of the worst offenses in the NFL.
This one is a no-brainer, roll with Kansas City D/ST against the Browns this week and leave Denver's defense on your bench.
Matt Franciscovich is an associate fantasy editor at NFL.com. He considers this version of "Cortez The Killer" by Dave Matthews Band (feat. Warren Haynes) one of the all time great live cuts. Hit Matt up on Twitter **@MattFranchise** for music recommendations and fantasy advice.
