In the wake of Derek Carr's hefty five-year, $125 million deal signed Thursday, the NFL Research team did some digging. How have some other modern day quarterbacks fared the year after signing their mega-deals?
The results are largely encouraging, depending on one's penchant for optimism (the research group broke it down in terms of team success, and we slightly altered the groupings for the purpose of this post. To be clear, if I were a general manager, I would be pretty excited about almost any of these players still.). Here's the breakdown:
Immediate team success:
» Cam Newton (2015): 15-1 record, 3,837 passing yards, 35 touchdowns (career high) and just 10 interceptions. Newton won the league's MVP award, taking the Panthers to the Super Bowl.
» Ben Roethlisberger (2008): Career-best 12-4 record, though he threw an underwhelming 17 touchdowns to 15 interceptions with a completion percentage below 60. The following season, Roethlisberger was over 4,000 yards for the first time in his career.
» Philip Rivers: (2009): Career low in interceptions and a 13-3 season for the Chargers. Rivers threw for 4,254 yards, 28 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
» Russell Wilson (2015): Wilson led the league in passer rating (110.1) and the Seahawks again won double-digit games (10-6). Wilson threw for 4,024 yards, 34 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Middling teams with expensive quarterbacks
» Andrew Luck (2016): The Colts went 8-7 with Luck under center, though Luck did throw for 4,240 yards, 31 touchdowns and 13 interceptions with a shoulder that needed surgery. Something tells us he'll be worth the money.
» Drew Brees (2012): The Saints went 7-9, though Brees threw for 5,177 yards, 43 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. His 63 percent completion rate was low by comparison (Brees is the most accurate quarterback in NFL History).
» Eli Manning (2009): The 8-8 Giants came down from their post-Super Bowl (and post Plaxico Burress disaster) seasons to land at 8-8. This was Manning's first-ever 4,000-yard season (4,021) with 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
Teams that floundered following the big deal
» Joe Flacco (2013): Flacco's 19 touchdowns and 22 picks was a true post-deal stinker for a Ravens team that somehow ended up 8-8. Flacco's 73.1 percent passer rating was the lowest of his career.
» Ryan Tannehill (2015): Tannehill's 2015 (the Dolphins went 6-10) raised some questions about his future as a long-term starter. While the numbers were not egregious (24 touchdowns, 12 interceptions), it took a rebirth under Adam Gase the following season to change perception.
» Brock Osweiler (2016): The recent poster boy for regrettable deals. The Texans reached the second round of the NFL playoffs, though Osweiler's only year in Texas ended with 15 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.