You have lineup questions, we have lineup answers -- at least we hope so. Start 'Em, Sit 'Em is here to help fantasy managers make difficult roster decisions. And you know what is a good move? Starting Jahmyr Gibbs. But that's too obvious, so you won't see such simple analysis here. Instead, we're exploring more debatable situations. And if you can't find a player you are looking for, please check out the latest NFL Fantasy lineup rankings.
NOTE: Unless otherwise indicated, all stats come from NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats or NFL Research.
Start 'Em
I understand anyone who is trying to get away from the Colts in fantasy football this week, given the wild uncertainty around their QB situation (Philip Rivers??!) in the wake of Daniel Jones' season-ending Achilles injury. Still, I'm willing to take a shot on Warren. He's a big target who can win across the middle and -- most importantly -- after the catch. I think whoever is under center for Indy will look Warren's way a lot. Plus, the bar for fantasy success is much lower at tight end, where a seven- or eight-point game hurts you less than it would coming from a receiver. Seattle might be elite against receivers, but the team has struggled with tight ends, allowing the second-most yards and fantasy PPG to the position. Lastly, Warren is the emergency QB -- so maybe you'll get some pass attempts out of him!
It seems likely that Kincaid was being eased back into action from his multi-game absence last Sunday, when he played the third-most snaps among Bills tight ends, though he did run the most routes of the group, turning five targets into 14 fantasy points and a TE8 finish on the week. And that usage could be dialed up further against the Patriots, who are in the top 10 in fantasy PPG allowed to tight ends. Given the two QBs involved in this one, it could be a high-scoring game, and Kincaid is Josh Allen’s most effective pass catcher when healthy, based on the QB's passer rating when targeting the TE.
Last week, I touted the potential of Pitts' pairing with Kirk Cousins -- and Pitts finished as the TE6. I am not sure he'll finish that high again this week, but he has been the top target for Cousins in each of the veteran's three starts at QB, scoring 15 fantasy points in each of the last two. And while the Bucs are a middle-of-the-pack matchup for tight ends in terms of production allowed, they do yield an above-average passer rating and completion percentage on passes to the position. Plus, whenever these two teams get together, a lot of points tend to be scored. Ride the hot hand.
The best tight end in fantasy is whoever is playing the Bengals. Cincy has allowed the most catches, yards, touchdowns and fantasy PPG to tight ends this season -- in fact, no one else is even close. The Bengals give up more fantasy points per game to tight ends than Trey McBride averages. I think both Ravens tight ends are in play this week; last week, multiple Bills TEs cooked Cincinnati, and when Cincinnati and Baltimore faced off two weeks ago, Likely and Andrews were the Ravens' leading pass catchers. Of the two, I prefer Likely. In the last three games, he has earned more targets than Andrews (15 to 14) while posting more catches, yards and touchdowns. I know Likely lost two touchdowns in that span (a fumble for a touchback and a controversial no-catch call vs. the Steelers). He's still the more explosive option and upside play. Andrews, on the other hand, brings a safer floor and has a good chance of scoring a touchdown.
OTHER START OPTIONS: Jaguars' Brenton Strange (vs. Jets); Browns' Harold Fannin Jr. (at Bears); Texans' Dalton Schultz (vs. Cardinals); Dolphins' Darren Waller (at Steelers).
DEEPER STARTER/STREAMING OPTIONS: Packers' Luke Musgrave (at Broncos); Jets' Mason Taylor (at Jaguars).
Sit 'Em
The Eagles' passing attack has struggled this season. I am willing to risk using their receivers, because the upside is a week-winning type of performance. That is not the case with Goedert, whose output on Monday (15.8 fantasy points) counted as his best game in weeks. I’d argue that his success was owed to the situation, with the Eagles trailing for much of the game and the Chargers excelling against receivers. Prior to that, Goedert scored fewer than five points in three consecutive games. That is a low floor and ceiling. Now that we're in the fantasy playoffs, production is much more important than name value. Plus, the Raiders have allowed the fewest yards to tight ends since Week 10 and the third-fewest on the season. Go with one of the streaming options above.
While I do think there could be a lot of points in this one, and Henry has been enjoying a bit of a resurgence as of late, this is a matchup to avoid. The Bills have allowed the second-fewest yards and just two touchdowns to tight ends this season, and the fewest fantasy PPG (less than eight). Henry was limited to just 6.6 fantasy points in Week 5 against the Bills. Stream elsewhere this week.
Even accounting for the Packers' occasional issues covering tight ends, there is no way you can trust Engram with your fantasy season on the line. He was limited to just 8 yards last week and has logged one total game with over 45 yards this season. He's also scored just one touchdown. He might be a recognizable player, but notoriety does not score fantasy points. In a good streaming week for tight ends, go in another direction.
I know a lot of you out there have been streaming tight ends. You might see that Gesicki went for 20.6 fantasy points and finished as the TE2 last week. And you might even think that with Joe Burrow back, rostering Gesicki is worth a shot. Do not chase the points! Last week was Gesicki’s first game this season with over eight fantasy points. Plus, the Ravens have allowed the second-fewest yards to tight ends since Week 10. Again, just roll with one of the excellent streaming options above!
