More than 50 days sit between the 2019 NFL Draft and us on April 25.
The biggest draft question over that period will remain what the Arizona Cardinals do with the No. 1 overall pick. Will Steve Keim draft Kyler Murray? Will it be Nick Bosa, or another defender, and Arizona sticks with Josh Rosen? Will the Cards trade down?
All options appear on the table in early March. However, one is fast-becoming an expectation.
NFL Network's Kimberly Jones reported over the weekend that "people are beginning to believe almost universally" that Murray will be the No. 1 pick by the Cardinals.
"In fact, teams picking in the top 10 believe they'll have no chance of drafting Murray," Jones added.
If that holds for the next seven weeks, it means the Cards would be giving up on Rosen after one season. Not only did Arizona use a first-round pick to select the UCLA product last year, but Keim also surrendered third- and fifth-round picks to Oakland last year to move up from No. 15 to No. 10 overall to take Rosen.
After sinking so much into the QB, how much might Keim recoup in a trade of Rosen, if Arizona decides to select Murray?
Peter King of NBC Sports sought to unearth a clue this weekend at the NFL Scouting Combine. In his Football Morning In America column, King cites two sources pegging Rosen's current value as a third-round pick.
The first source is Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner: "I would give a three for Josh," Warner told King.
The second source King describes as a "renowned NFL GM": "Probably a three," the general manager said. "Not what the Cardinals would think his value is."
Woof. Getting a third back for Rosen would be a tough pill to swallow.
The Cards are in a difficult situation to recoup acceptable value. If the rest of the NFL believes Arizona is all in on Murray, it plummets Rosen's worth. The moment Keim starts to shop Rosen, every other team would assume Murray is the No 1 pick.
Perhaps this is all an elaborate shell game, and Keim is simply building a market to trade the No. 1 pick. All the hot air we've heard from the combine, however, suggests Murray is the ultimate prize.
Finding a franchise quarterback is the most difficult task in the NFL. If the Cardinals believe pairing Murray with coach Kliff Kingsbury is best for the long-term sustainability of the team, Keim must move on and take what he can for Rosen, sunk costs be darned.
The only thing that is 100 percent certain: This is not the final post we'll write about Murray/Rosen/Cardinals in the next 50 days.
