This week in Higher/Lower it's time to examine what unheralded players you can saddle up and ride with through the rest of the fantasy regular season and playoffs - and which ones you need to keep leashed to your bench, with some surprises along the way. Oh, and a Sons of Anarchy spoiler alert if you haven't seen this week's episode.
1: How many times I'm playing Bobby Rainey the last two weeks of the regular season. Under. This is crazy. The only Buccaneer running back who couldn't have any success this year has been Doug Martin. It's not that Martin completely stunk earlier this season, but rather the offensive line, which was beat up the first half of the season is now a team strength. Martin would be his 2012 self were he still playing. So why am I sitting Rainey the last two weeks of the regular season? It's because of the cats: Tampa Bay has Detroit and Carolina the next two weeks - both on the road. The Lions are fifth overall against the run this season (94.6 YPG), while the Panthers are third (84.5). If you're desperate in the final week of the byes, then Rainey can be a flex for you. But I'm not going to hinge my season on Rainey as a No. 2 fantasy RB against these teams. Don't say I didn't warn you. (Though I do love Mike Glennon as a spot-start at QB. I'm going with him over Andrew Luck this week in one league.)
7: On a scale of 1-10, how worried I am about Le'Veon Bell's fantasy value the rest of the season. Over. This is where fantasy meets reality. Fantasy-wise, Bell has been awesome. Sort of a poor-man's Matt Forte. He gives you between 50-90 rushing yards a week to go along with 40-60 yards receiving. Throw in a touchdown every other week and he's a very strong -- almost a must-start -- No. 2 fantasy RB. But in reality? The Steelers need more. Three of his last four weeks he's run for less than three yards per carry. He had two goal-line carries last week and slipped and fell on his second one. The next time they were in goal-to-go Jonathan Dwyer was in the game. Bell has been more trustworthy than explosive. He's good in pass protection, doesn't fumble, and gives you nice receiving yards out of the backfield. He sort of reminds me of Tim Hightower in 2011, who had very similar production but eventually Mike Shanahan had to turn the page because you can't keep giving the football to a guy who averages two yards per carry. Beware of Bell going forward.
**In a somehat related note, sit Antonio Brown this Sunday if you can afford to. Yes, he's a star. Yes, he's awesome. He's also on Haden Island this week. Joe Haden has shut down every opposing No. 1 WR he's faced this season. Jordy Nelson caught a dinky 1-yard TD to give him 10 fantasy points in Week 7 against Haden. Torrey Smith got eight in Week 2. And that's been it. Just ask Calvin Johnson (2.5 points) and A.J. Green (5.8 total points in two games) how good he is. I'm not convinced Brown is quite that special.
7: On a scale of 1-10, how confident I am in playing Coby Fleener as my tight end the rest of the season. Over. It took longer than anticipated -- and Reggie Wayne getting hurt -- but finally, Fleener has arrived. We now know where Wayne's targets are going, and they're all going to Fleener, who has 10 in each of the past two weeks, including the first 100-yard game of his career. And Fleener has started to emerge against some pretty good defenses the last few weeks (Houston, St. Louis, Tennessee). If you're going plug-and-play at TE, don't jump for Garrett Graham or John Carlson. Fleener's your man.
8: On a scale of 1-10, how good this week's episode of Sons of Anarchy was. Over. Watching the airplane hangar scene I felt the same tinges of excitement and apprehension and tension I did when Opie tried to fight the convicts last season. I knew what was coming and it was still an incredible delivery. I have two things that stand out from Aon Rud Persanta: I loved the introduction of the pristine, white-everywhere airplane hangar. It looked like it was just built brand new and hadn't been used -- almost sterile -- and yet you knew it was going to get blood-stained in a big climactic way. Let's get a little bigger picture now. There are plenty of things S.O.A. does well, but the best may be the way they foreshadow a huge event just a few moments before it happens to give the viewer a unique perspective and an angle of excitement we rarely feel. (The show used a very similar tactic in the Season 2 finale.) The "Oh my God I know what's coming and I still can't believe it" is the most underrated device a show can use - but it's really hard to execute. Bravo.
Targets/Touches: Oh boy-naya!
Jason Smith takes a look at Browns RB Chris Ogbonnaya and decides he's worth picking up off the waiver wire. More ...
10 seconds: How fast it would take me to trade Philip Rivers if I got a good offer. Under. The soft underbelly of Rivers' schedule is now complete, as he closes with Kansas City and Cincinnati the final two weeks of the regular season. Yuck. While it does get a little better in the playoffs, he's hard to start until then. True, he's still seventh overall in fantasy points, but he hasn't been over 20 points in a game since Week 4. He also has thrown for multiple TDs in a game once since Week 5. He hasn't crawled to a stop, but he's slowed down enough that if you have a viable alternative at QB and are in need at another position, go ahead and deal Rivers to a quarterback-hungry team. Otherwise, keep him on your bench and then you can dust him off for the fantasy playoffs, but you really have to have someone who you trust to get you through the next two weeks. And if you have that guy, why would you go back to Rivers? It all comes back to trading him.
Jason Smith writes fantasy and other pith for nfl.com. You can see him as the host of NFL Fantasy Live that airs Sunday through Friday on NFL Network at 5pmET/2pmPT and also at 1amET/10pmPT. Listen to him on the NFL Fantasy Live podcast available at nfl.com and on itunes. Reach out to him on Google plus or Twitter @howaboutafresca, and listen to his Fantasy Podcast with Michael Fabiano and Elliot Harrison every week on nfl.com. He only asks you never bring up when the Jets play poorly.
