Predicting the future is difficult.
Even the infamous seer Nostradamus blew more than his share of predictions during his time. (Come on, do you think even he could have forseen that Odell Beckham Jr. would go off like he did last season? I think not!) Whether it's real-life events or sports, you're going to have your share of good and bad predictions. Remember JaMarcus Russell? A lot of NFL experts and analysts loved him coming out of college. They didn't love Tom Brady, though, who was a sixth-round pick in the 2000 NFL Draft.
Sixth round!
Fantasy sports is no different. Using facts, statistics, trends and any number of other different sources of information, analysts try their absolute damdest to correctly predict what's going to happen out on the gridiron. Some picks are easier ... Eric Decker was going to be a bust with the New York Jets last season compared to his time in Denver and well, he was. Of course, there are also the predictions that went horribly wrong. Like Cordarrelle Patterson being a major sleeper in 2014. Yeah, um ... sorry about that one, my friends.
While correct predictions can be the difference between a good fantasy team and a great one, incorrect picks can have just as massive a blow to championship hopes. You know that all too well if you drafted Adrian Peterson last season. Or maybe you took a chance on Montee Ball in Round 1. (I just threw up in my mouth a little.) Despite all of the research that's done, a fair share of prognostications, no matter how relevant and fact-based, are going to be incorrect. And in some cases, embarassingly incorrect.
Why is that the case? Well ... the one thing that's predictable about the NFL is it's unpredictability.
Here's a look at the 10 most important fantasy predictions you'll see analysts make (including myself) that would devastate fantasy teams if proven incorrect.
Adrian Peterson will come back and dominate again. I have Peterson ranked No. 1 among all players right now, though rumors of a training camp holdout have his status in a fragile state. If he does come back and runs rampant on the competition, well, A.D. is going to help a lot of fantasy owners win a title. But if his reported displeasure with the Minnesota Vikings continues to drive his desire to be traded, the fantasy superstar could be more risk than reward.
Marshawn Lynch will continue to produce in 2015. A lot of fantasy analysts out there expected Lynch's value to fall off a cliff last season. Instead, he finished third in fantasy points among runners and found the end zone 17 times. Watching the tape, it doesn't look like "Beast Mode" is running with any less fervor or power. But what if at age 29, the leader in carries over the last four seasons does in fact hit that physical wall? That would wreak havoc in fantasy land.
Jimmy Graham's value will take a hit in Seattle. Graham, a first- or second-round fantasy choice in 2014, failed to produce consistent numbers for owners. Now in Seattle, he joins an offense that put the ball in the air fewer times than any other team in the NFL last season. That stat alone pushed him down into the fourth round in most mocks. However, Graham would be an absolute draft bargain if he returns to the form that made him a star during the 2011-2013 campaigns.
Volume will keep LeSean McCoy among the top backs. McCoy, a huge disappointment in fantasy land last season, moved to Buffalo where he'll see 20 to 25 touches per game in what promises to be a run-based offense under new coach Rex Ryan. That will make him hard to pass up in Round 1. But what if the lack of a stable quarterback and a questionable (at best) run-blocking offensive line hinders his attempt at a bounce-back season? That scenario would be a true fantasy killer.
DeMarco Murray will turn into a bust next season. Few analysts predicted Murray's rise to the No. 1 spot among fantasy runners last season, but almost everyone is predicting his statistical demise in 2015. Between the 392 carries he had and his offseason move to Philadelphia, it's hard to see Murray duplicating his 2014 totals again. But what if he overcomes the odds and remains a top-five fantasy back with his new team? That would be quite a value for a second-rounder.
Peyton Manning will no longer be an elite player. If you had Manning last season (like me), you know how great he was for much of the time. However, you also experienced one of the worst four-game stretches of his Hall-of-Fame career during the fantasy postseason. At the age of 39 and in an offense that could be more balanced under new head coach Gary Kubiak, Manning is dropping in most drafts. Imagine though, if he regains his mojo and puts up monster numbers just one more time?
C.J. Anderson will move to an elite level in 2015. Coupling Anderson's late-season production in 2014 with the fact that Kubiak loves to run the ball is why many analysts have Anderson circled as a major breakout candidate. Of course, some of us thought the same of Ball last season. The difference? We've seen Anderson produce. Ball ... not so much. In any event, a mediocre Anderson would be devastating for owners.
Jeremy Hill won't suffer a dreaded sophomore slump. I loved Giovani Bernard last season, not realizing that he'd get hurt and Hill would run roughshod through NFL defenses. Now, the shoe is on the other foot ... the experts (including myself) love Hill and are leaving Bernard on the fantasy backburner. But in a league where backfield committees are almost the norm, it's more than possible Hill won't be worth the first- or second-round price tag he'll cost you in 2015 drafts.
The Saints will run the ball more often in 2015. New Orleans traded Graham and Kenny Stills, acquired center Max Unger and then picked offensive tackle Andrus Peat in the draft. Those moves smell of a change in offensive philosophy from pass laden to a balanced attack, which would hurt Drew Brees' value but improve Mark Ingram's stock. I even left Brees out of the first 50 picks in my most recent mock draft. If I'm wrong about him, well, Brees will leave some serious egg on my face.
Melvin Gordon will become the top fantasy rookie. Gordon seems like a no-brainer to produce as a rookie, right? You think so, I think so and most experts think so. But what if he turns into the next Ryan Mathews? I don't see it, but anything is possible when it comes to the NFL. What if, like last season, another rookie runner comes out of nowhere and becomes elite among the first-year players? I do love his upside, but drafting Gordon too soon would hurt if he falters.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Have a burning question on anything fantasy related? Tweet it to _**@MichaelFabiano**_ or send a question via **Facebook**!
