I've been asked about it a million times: Should I draft Peyton Manning in the first round?
Sure, it's nice to have the best quarterback in fantasy football and his 4,000 passing yards and 30-plus touchdowns. But unless the league awards a ton of points to quarterbacks, I will stick with a running back.
The reason is simple: I'll be able to land an effective quarterback in the middle rounds and another one in the late rounds, but I won't be able to draft an equally valuable runner in the same stanzas.
In other words, the quarterback with the laser, rocket right arm won't be in my fantasy future.
In almost 100 percent of standard drafts with 12 teams, at least 18 of the first 24 players selected will be runners. As a result, No. 2 fantasy backs like Ronnie Brown, Clinton Portis, Deuce McAllister, Edgerrin James and Cedric Benson will be off the board fast.
Though none of these players is as valuable as Manning, it's just the nature of fantasy drafts that backs will be taken early and at an ultra-rampant pace.
Owners who take Manning in the first round will be left to choose from the likes of Cadillac Williams, Ahman Green, Jamal Lewis or Tatum Bell as a second back. Not that these runners don't have value, but players like these will be inconsistent throughout the season and are much closer to No. 3 fantasy backs.
On the other side of the coin, those owners who land two running backs in the first two rounds will still have a plethora of good signal-callers to choose from in the middle rounds.
Believe it or not, I've actually landed tremendous field generals such as Donovan McNabb, Vince Young and Matt Hasselbeck after the fifth round in a few different experts drafts, and I was able to also add a valuable backup in the later stanzas.
In some cases, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers and Matt Leinart will still be on the board as the draft enters the later rounds. As a result, it is possible to take Hasselbeck and Rivers to form a dynamic quarterback duo that can be utilized each week based on their individual opponents to pair with my two stud runners.
To further prove that taking Manning in the first round isn't too keen an idea, let's take a look inside the numbers. In standard formats, Manning recorded an impressive 368 fantasy points, or 23 points a week in 2006. Drew Brees, Young and Romo, who were either undrafted or taken in the middle-to-late rounds, turned out to be better values based on their numbers and where owners were able to land them.
Brees recorded 316 points, which averaged out to 19.7 points a week; Romo had 214 points, or over 18 points a week; and the versatile Young had 228 points, or over 15 points a week. So for either a middle- to late-round choice or little more than a waiver-wire transaction, some fantasy teams were able to land an elite quarterback.
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Sure, nice runners like Maurice Jones-Drew and Marion Barber could have also been found on waivers last season. But the demand for a free-agent back after a solid week in fantasy football is like the demand for beads at Marti Gras.
That means an owner's chance of landing a one-week breakout back who could turn into a fantasy starter is much less than someone who takes a chance on a quarterback after a solid week.
Another advantage of being the owner who waits on a quarterback is the increased chance to land two elite wide receivers. Studs like Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison and Terrell Owens will still be on the board and available in the third round. What's more, next-tier No. 1s the caliber of Javon Walker, Marques Colston, Donald Driver and Lee Evans can be had in the fourth round. The owner that takes the elite quarterback, in this case Manning, will use their third-rounder on a No. 2 back and their fourth-rounder on a wideout.
In a recent 10-team draft, I utilized this wait-on-a-quarterback philosophy and was able to land Frank Gore and Reggie Bush in the first two rounds, Terrell Owens, Javon Walker and Donald Driver as my three starting wideouts and Todd Heap at the tight end position. My quarterbacks are Hasselbeck, who was still on the board in Round 7, and future Hall of Famer Brett Favre, who was still available in Round 13.
While I wouldn't hesitate to take Manning if he fell to me in the middle-to-late second round - I'd already have a stud runner from Round 1 and could add a second back on a quick turnaround in the third round - as long as backs rule the fantasy football roost, my team will never be Peyton's Place.
