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Matt Ryan leads 2017 overvalued fantasy football QBs

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Value is in the eye of the beholder. That's a saying, right? If not, I'm making it one. Because how fantasy managers view a player will have a lot to do with that player's value in drafts. Of course, it's possible for some players to get a little too overvalued in plenty of leagues with drafters reaching for a guy in a spot where his production might not warrant it.

Consider this column to be your fantasy buzzkill.

When it comes to quarterbacks, it's pretty easy to find players whose draft value might not match up to their potential. At a position currently experiencing as much depth as the fantasy quarterback spot, it's easy to figure out where other values can be found beyond just the top of the ADP charts. This isn't to say that the quarterbacks on this list aren't good. It's just to say you can probably find better options.

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (ADP: Pick 5.10)

I'm not going to try and weave some tale of advanced analytics or obscure statistical metrics to try and convince you that Andrew Luck is #actually bad. It wouldn't make sense, you wouldn't believe it and you'd rightly flame me on Twitter for it.

Luck is on this list not because he's some overrated quarterback just getting by on the strength of his charm and Civil War general-style beard. He's on the list because right now a quarterback who currently isn't throwing a football shouldn't be the fourth signal-caller off the board.

When we last left our footballing hero, he was being placed on the PUP list, continuing his rehab from shoulder surgery and being prohibited from throwing anything heavier than a tennis ball. Combine that with a propensity to take hits behind a poor offensive line and the risk factor ratchets up a bit.

Value options: Kirk Cousins (8.11), Philip Rivers (10.02)

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (ADP: Pick 6.02)

I'm honestly a little surprised to see Ryan going in the sixth round after his career year in 2016. Frequently when a player puts together such a special campaign, the tendency is to see his ADP over inflated the following year. That hasn't quite happened to Ryan.

Nonetheless, here he sits smack dab in the middle of a column about overvalued quarterbacks ... and for good reason. So much of what Ryan did last year sits as an outlier to the rest of his career. In 2016, the Falcons quarterback posted a touchdown rate of 7.1 percent -- far better than his previous career-high of 5.2 (set in 2012) and light years ahead of his career 4.7 percent touchdown rate.

While no one gets fantasy points for passer rating -- if you do, you should re-evaluate your life decisions -- it's worth noting that Ryan was historically good in that category last year. His 117.1 mark was the fifth-best single-season number in league history. That's a pretty lofty number for someone who's career passer rating was 90.9 entering 2016.

Reasonable people can agree that while it's possible for Ryan to have another season like 2016, it's also very difficult to replicate. Adding to the degree of difficulty is the fact that the Falcons will have a new offensive coordinator in Steve Sarkisian, who has never piloted an offense at the NFL level. Even with a slew of talent in the attack, expect there to be some hiccups and growing pains as everyone gets used to a new scheme. That's a lot of uncertainty for a sixth-round fantasy quarterback.

Value options: Matthew Stafford (10.11), Eli Manning (11.03)

Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (ADP: Pick 6.11)

I have a lot of friends who are big Fresno State Bulldog and Raiders fans, so I'm certain I'll hear about this from them. Alas, my job here is to be as objective as possible about it. So to all my friends in California's central valley ... can we still be friends?

There's no doubt that Carr and the Raiders have been exciting to watch but the numbers have yet to bear out that he should be the sixth quarterback off the board in fantasy drafts. Entering his fourth season in the league, Carr has yet to post a 4,000-yard passing season. His 2016 total of 3,937 total passing yards and 262.5 yards per game ranked a fairly pedestrian 14th in the NFL last year.

Equally pedestrian is Carr's 3.68 air yards per attempt average from a season ago. That number certainly doesn't preclude the Raiders quarterback from putting up decent fantasy totals but it does put more pressure on his pass-catchers to pick up yards after the catch. Oakland has been in the top half of the league in YAC in each of the last two seasons. That's a tough way to succeed as a fantasy signal-caller, though.

Oh ... and one more thing. Last season, the Raiders had the third-most dropped passes of any team in the league. It's an issue that is out of Carr's hands -- literally and figuratively -- but it does lead to plenty of yards, touchdowns and fantasy points being left on the field. Literally and figuratively.

Value options: Andy Dalton (12.03), Sam Bradford (undrafted)

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (ADP: Pick 7.12)

I wrote a little bit about Newton in my recent look at some players who could bounce back in 2017. The tl;dr in that piece was that Newton is still recovering from shoulder surgery and six seasons worth of punishment as a quarterback who frequently runs and takes a lot of hits. That likely led to Newton recording fewer than 100 rush attempts for the first time in his career.

But if you thought last season was going to completely change the way Cam approached the position, you are sorely mistaken. Lions roaring and all of that. It's understandable. Running has always been a huge part of Newton's game and it's silly to think he'd completely abandon it at this point in his career. At the same time, it's apparent that the Panthers would prefer that he stays out of harm's way as much as possible.

Which begs the question ... is Newton worthy of being drafted as a top 10 fantasy quarterback if he's not earning nearly as many yards on the ground? The fact that in most leagues rushing touchdowns count for six points helps his overall outlook. But he is still primarily a quarterback, meaning most of his fantasy production will come through the air. That's worrisome for a player not known for his passing accuracy, with just one 4,000-yard season to his name and a lack of game-breaking pass-catchers.

Value options: Dak Prescott (10.03), Tyrod Taylor (11.11)

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: Pick 8.04)

Roethlisberger is blessed by playing in a Steelers offense that is loaded to the gills with weapons. But it hasn't necessarily translated into elite fantasy production in the past couple of seasons. Part of it has been a propensity to turn the ball over at an alarming rate. In the past two seasons, Big Ben has a 50:29 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That's always going to tamp down your potential fantasy production.

What also can hold you back is not having nearly as many opportunities to throw the football. In each of the past three seasons, Pittsburgh's share of pass plays has decreased as Le'Veon Bell and the running game have taken more of a focus. Fewer attempts plus increased turnovers is no way to win friends and influence people.

There's also still the matter of Ben's home and road splits. It's become common knowledge that Roethlisberger is a solid play at Heinz Field but best avoided whenever he leaves the Three Rivers. That makes him a platoon fantasy option at best ... which isn't the kind of thing you want from the quarterback taken ninth off the board in most drafts.

Value options: Blake Bortles (14.01), Joe Flacco (14.12)

Marcas Grant is a fantasy editor for NFL.com and a man who is fed up with the recent humidity in Los Angeles. If he wanted all of that, he would have moved to Houston years ago. Tweet him your weather-related complaints @MarcasG. If you read all of that, congrats. Follow him on Instagram and Snapchat (marcasg9)

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