(Note: This story appears in the 2010 NFL.com Fantasy Football Preview magazine, on sale at newsstands on June 11 and available to order now on NFLShop.com.)
While this is not an official NFL position on the issue one way or the other: Darwin was right. If we don't evolve and grow in life, well, chances are we'll be destined for failure. In this case, life is fantasy football. (Actually, the reverse is true, too, right?) And for the past decade, the blood that makes that fantasy life worth living has come from the running back position.
From Marshall Faulk to Priest Holmes, from Shaun Alexander to LaDainian Tomlinson, an elite back had always been the number-one target in your fantasy draft. In fact, there was a time when looking for a pair of top running backs in the first two rounds was considered the most popular and potentially successful draft strategy. You were looking to build a solid backfield, and the offensive structure of the NFL made it possible.
After all, most NFL teams believed the path to a Super Bowl championship was built around success in the running game. If teams could run the ball and play good D week-to-week, they had a real shot at success. In fantasy, the D was secondary (pardon the pun), and running backs ruled. Every fantasy team searched for a featured running back that could pile up stats. Even going back to the time of Jim Brown and moving forward via the NFL time machine to Walter Payton and Eric Dickerson, it was all about the backs.
But the times, my friends, have changed.
We live in a different era now, an era that has seen the disintegration of the true featured back. In the current NFL, finding a running back that sees the vast majority of his team's carries is like finding a Cowboys' fan in Philadelphia: They're out there, but they're few and far between.
Instead, most NFL teams have turned to a running-back-by-committee, or RBBC (the dirtiest four-letter combo in fantasy football). No longer is it good enough to field just one good back around which to build an offense. Most teams now have at least two runners with different skill sets and roles in the offense. There's a first- and second-down back, a third-down back, and a short-yardage/goal-line back.
Carries are now shared among several players, not just one. In many cases, this scenario devalues the running back position in fantasy football. Sure, DeAngelo Williams is one of the most talented runners in the NFL. In fact, he led his position with 270 fantasy points in 2008. But how much confidence can you really have in him to post solid numbers on a consistent basis with Jonathan Stewart also in the Panthers' backfield mix? In fact, Williams' 2009 numbers went down to 166 fantasy points, while Stewart rose from 135 in 2008 to 178 in 2009.
If you put Williams and Stewart in featured roles on two different teams, you're looking at two surefire first-round selections. But with both players in the same backfield, even in the run-based Panthers' offense, owners are certain to deal with some frustration.
In some cases, carries have become so evenly split that figuring out who to start out of an RBBC has become almost impossible. In New York, Brandon Jacobs was considered the Giants' top running back. But in the final weeks, owners would have been better off starting his "backup," Ahmad Bradshaw. The same situation held true in Arizona, where Tim Hightower was the starter but Beanie Wells became the better fantasy option down the stretch.
Other backfield situations held an even greater level of confusion. Some coaches simply went with the hotter of their two committee backs in a given week. We saw that down the stretch and in the postseason in Dallas, where Marion Barber remained the starter but was overshadowed from a fantasy perspective by Felix Jones.
When the smoke cleared at the end of the season, fewer than half of all NFL teams used one runner as the centerpiece of their offense. Even Ray Rice, who was fourth in fantasy points on NFL.com among running backs in 2009, wasn't a true featured player. Sure, he saw 54 percent of the Ravens' regular-season carries. But Willis McGahee had more than 100 carries of his own and scored 14 total touchdowns. That was 6 more TDs than Rice, the Ravens' "No. 1" back.
While the number of true featured running backs has decreased, the rise of quarterbacks was obvious.
Ten QBs, an NFL single-season high, passed for at least 4,000 yards in 2009, and 12 passed for at least 25 touchdowns. That also set a new record. It was as if Don Coryell took over every offense in the league! Furthermore, eight of the top 10 fantasy-point producers on NFL.com were quarterbacks, a list that included Aaron Rodgers (327 points), Drew Brees (280), Brett Favre (274), and Peyton Manning (272). Chris Johnson (at 329 the exception that proves the new rules) and Adrian Peterson (265) were the lone non-QBs to break into the top 10.
Of the top 20 point producers, 14 were quarterbacks. What makes that stat even more impressive is that it's based on the NFL standard scoring system that awards four points for passing touchdowns, not six. An amazing 17 different players passed for at least 3,500 yards. Since 2004, no more than 11 quarterbacks had reached that mark in the same season. The 2009 season also had 16 signal callers score 200 or more fantasy points.
That's the highest number to reach the 200 mark since 2004. It also continued a steady rise for quarterbacks. In 2006, seven QBs scored 200 or more points. That number rose to nine in 2007 and then to 10 in 2008.
In that same time, an average of just seven running backs have hit the 200-point mark per season. A mere six runners scored 200-plus points in 2009.
This evolution from running to passing offenses wasn't limited to teams with a history of air attacks. Teams that had built their franchise success around the ground game, such as the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers, have also evolved.
Eli Manning became just the third quarterback to throw for 4,000-plus yards (4,021) in New York Giants history, following Phil Simms (1984) and Kerry Collins (2002). In Pittsburgh, Ben Roethlisberger was the first quarterback in team history to reach the 4,000-yard passing mark. No, that's not a misprint. Despite all of its Super success, this franchise has been based on the run forever. In fact, Terry Bradshaw held the previous team high with just 3,724 passing yards in 1979.
That's all well and good, but what does this mean for you? Well, as the song goes, it's time for a cool change. As the NFL's offensive philosophies have evolved, now you, the fantasy football enthusiast, must evolve as well. Your biggest moves will be a change to the typical earlier-round strategies of your drafts.
The top four overall selections in 2010 drafts are almost certain to include the
Titans' Johnson, the Vikings' Peterson, the Jaguars' Maurice Jones-Drew, and the Ravens' Rice, and the top 12 picks will include at least eight or nine backs. But owners now have to mention the Packers' Rodgers and the Saints' Brees in the first-round conversation. Brees was a first-round pick (7.43) last season based on NFL.com's average draft position (ADP), but Rodgers (27.61) didn't usually come off the board until Round 3 of a 12-team draft.
That will change in 2010.
I'd also argue that Colts quarterback Peyton Manning should now be a first-round pick as well. He's nearly guaranteed to pass for 4,000 yards with about 30 touchdowns, and he'll single-handedly win you a game or two. What's more, Manning is a much safer option than the vast majority of running backs. Your top overall pick needs to be your fantasy franchise player, and basing that pick on a runner with one season of success or a tendency to get injured is a risk-reward proposition.
Just ask anyone who drafted Matt Forté or Steve Slaton in the first round last season.
Instead, you can now build your team around an elite quarterback who's going to produce strong numbers on a more consistent basis. And if you hold a prominent spot in the first round and pass on a QB in favor of a Johnson, Peterson, Jones-Drew, or Rice, the depth at the position allows you to still land someone such as the Patriots' Tom Brady, the Chargers' Philip Rivers, the Texans' Matt Schaub, or the Cowboys' Tony Romo in the second or third round.
But unlike last season, when you could have waited to pick someone such as Schaub or Roethlisberger in the middle rounds, the demand for quarterbacks will be much higher.
This isn't to say that you should avoid running backs altogether, because a good number of the top 30 overall selections will still come from the position. But fantasy owners shouldn't feel the same pressure to focus on the position in the earlier rounds in the new-look, pass-heavy National Football League. We're now in the era of the quarterback.
It's time to evolve. And win. Just don't ask Charles Darwin to join your league.
