The style of play in the NFL is always evolving. This week I want to take a look at three issues facing coaches on Sundays.
1. The risk and reward of the 50-plus yard field goal attempt
To date, NFL teams have attempted 35 field goals of 50 yards or more and converted 16 (or 45 percent). Last year, the success rate of 50-plus yard field goals was 47 percent (40 of 85). Thus far in 2007 there has been an average of six 50-plus yard field goals each week. Last year teams averaged five per week. Teams are currently trying more long field goals and making less of them, but slowly teams are returning to a more conservative approach.
Not every team has a Kris Brown, who is 3-for-3 from 50-plus yards this season in Houston. Sebastian Janikowski (0-3), Neil Rackers (3-5), and Olinda Mare (0-2) haven't been so successful from long range. Coaches are starting to remind themselves of the risk/reward of attempting a long field goal.
Leaving an opponent on a short field is a critical factor in deciding to attempt a long field goal. Last week the Chargers' Nate Kaeding missed a 50-yard attempt and the Raiders scored a touchdown on their ensuing drive. That's not something coaches like to see. Look for long field goals in the middle of games to be replaced by a pooch punt or an occasional run/pass play in the coming weeks. As one quality control coach said to me this week, "The early-season decision to try long field goals isn't going to last as teams read the reports on the outcome."
I would be surprised if the NFL average stays at its present pace.
2. The four-man rush against the shotgun quick-pass package
More and more teams are neutralizing defenses with a four-man front by utilizing a shotgun or quick-pass philosophy. If an offensive coordinator looks at a defense and sees a 4-3 scheme and concludes that none of the four defensive linemen can convert to linebackers in passing situations, then that triggers a shotgun or quick-pass package. The Titans, Bears, Packers, Redskins and Jaguars among other teams that have forceful four-man fronts. They get after an offense like the front fours of days gone bye. As one offensive coach said, "Whenever we can get a defense to waste a player in a rush look who will not effect the pass play, then by utilizing a quick game from the gun we win." A prominent defensive end in a 4-3 scheme said this week, "We have to start popping one of our linemen out of the rush and occupying an underneath zone instead of wasting a rusher because we just don't get to the quarterback enough the way we do it."
The truth is that rushing three players and dropping eight will get the quarterback to hold the ball. In the end that will give the three man rush a better chance at pressuring or sacking the quarterback. Look at Tennessee, for example. The Titans have an excellent four-man rush but they only have eight sacks and never got to Jeff Garcia of the Bucs last week because he got rid of the ball so quickly. I wonder if dropping an end would have gotten Garcia to hold the ball two seconds longer and allow a three-man rush to get to him? That's the question on the mind of a number of defensive coordinators facing the shotgun quick-pass attack.
3. The constant change of pass protection schemes
The NFL game is really a series of games within game scenarios. Not one of those scenarios is more important than the offensive line pass protection schemes. Not to long ago teams employed one or two protection schemes on third down and two-minute packages. Teams are now employing many blocking schemes and rotating them every play of a game rather than be caught in a look that the pass rush knows how to beat. One defensive coordinator noted the team he played this week had his team wired and were a step ahead of his stunt/blitz packages with protection. Sounds like the five-game scouting reports caught up with the trends in the game. Now it's time for the defenses to make the next move.
