How did we get here? Monday night's duel in the desert features two once-playoff-hungry teams with eyes on Houston who through five games have wandered aimlessly off track. Be it due to injuries or interceptions, the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals stumble into Monday Night Football under .500, looking to take flight again.
New York has lost three in a row, finding different ways to fall in each contest -- picks, punts, poor pass defense. The Jets' aging offense, led by underperforming vets in Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Forte, has regressed in the red zone. Their secondary, once embodied by Revis Island, is instead scattered with castaways getting picked apart weekly by the deep ball. Thanks to Miami's win on Sunday, the Jets are now the bottom-feeders in the AFC East, and a loss on Monday could put their lost season to bed.
The Cardinals are back in the hunt in the NFC West after Drew Stanton and David Johnson led Arizona to a Thursday night win over the 49ers. Carson Palmer is set to return after sitting out most of last week with a concussion, and Arizona can only hope that the big-play passing game returns with him. At 2-3, Arizona hasn't played nearly up to the standards set by last season's conference championship run. But the Cards can let bygones be bygones with a win on Monday night that would put them right back into the thick of the playoff race.
So can the master (Bruce Arians) outcoach his apprentice (Todd Bowles) under the bright lights of prime time football? Will Carson Palmer be reborn post-concussion? Can the Jets' secondary, with or without an ailing Darrelle Revis, stop anybody? Here is what we're watching for...
- Will the return of Carson Palmer to the Cardinals' lineup mean the return of the deep ball? It surely wasn't the case during the first quarter of the season. Aside from David Johnson, Arizona's offense has sputtered without the threat of the big-play passing game. Through the first four games, Palmer had a passer rating of 40.5 and threw five interceptions on passes that went 15-plus yards through the air; his rating on similar tosses last season was 104.7. It also doesn't help that Michael Floyd and John Brown have been shells of themselves. If the Cards can't break out against the Jets' 31st-best passing defense, then we're afraid they never will.
- The matchup of the night will be between David Johnson and the Jets' stiff run defense. What New York lacks in the secondary, they make up for it on the defensive line. Heading into Week 6, the Jets' defense was the second-best against the run (68.4 YPG), but they have yet to face a back with the combined size and skill set of Johnson. The second-year back is the only player this season to post 100-plus yards from scrimmage in each of his first five games and leads the league in scrimmage YPG since he was named the starter in Week 13 of 2015 (135.3; Julio Jones is second with 114.3). Johnson is a force inside and outside the tackles, a versatility that will give New York's young linebackers trouble, regardless of the interior's dominance.
- Now that Eric Decker is on injured reserve, who gets Fitz's targets in his place? The Jets looked lost in the red zone without Decker, who had at least one touchdown in 14 of New York's 18 games before his shoulder injury sidelined him. The obvious answer is Brandon Marshall, but the Jets' leading receiver will undoubtedly receive blanket man coverage from Patrick Peterson. Marshall was optimistic about the wideouts on staff when questioned at his locker this week, telling young wide receiver Robby Anderson to "stand up". The rookie complied at his locker, but will he do so on the field against Arizona corners prone to breakdowns?
Other options for the gun-frisky Fitz are Bilal Powell, who has outplayed Forte in the passing game, and Quincy Enunwa, who has so far failed to step into the number-two role with authority. If Austin Seferian-Jenkins is good to go -- he's listed as questionable -- he could offer the Jets an option on offense they haven't had since the days of Dustin Keller: a playmaking tight end.
- Can the Jets win the turnover battle? Probably not, but it's worth a try. The Cardinals lead all teams in takeaways, while New York has the league's worst turnover differential (-9), in part due to Fitzpatrick's reckless antics against the Chiefs and Seahawks in Weeks 3 and 4. However, there may be a silver lining in East Rutherford. After throwing for six and three interceptions in consecutive weeks, Fitzpatrick played it safe against the Steelers, leading the Jets' offense to a turnover-free loss. Last week's performance may have signaled a brief change in Fitz's decision-making, but if the Jets get down in the fourth quarter, look for the Harvard grad to play dumb football -- Fitzpatrick has thrown eight of his 10 picks and zero touchdowns in the final frame.
- Here's a stat that you definitely won't hear on seven separate occasions on Monday night: the Cardinals franchise has not beaten the Jets since 1975 when St. Louis' Jim Hart bested Joe Namath. Arizona has lost six consecutive games against Gang Green and five straight since moving to Arizona. The viewing public can only hope that this week's iteration of the one-sided matchup won't be as miserable a contest as the last one, a 7-6 New York win in 2012, in which Mark Sanchez, Greg McElroy and Ryan Lindley combined for 168 passing yards and three interceptions.
