Turner could be a fantasy disappointment this season

What do you think of Michael Turner for 2012? I'm in a keeper league and will retain Arian Foster, Wes Welker and Jordy Nelson. - @jonrwilhite (via Twitter)

Michael Fabiano: I fear the statistical cliff is coming for Turner. Not only has he recorded 300-plus carries in three of his last four seasons, but he also turned 30 earlier this year. That is the dreaded age when countless running backs have seen their level of statistical success fall in the past. So despite the fact that he was sixth in fantasy points at his position in 2011, you almost have to expect him to experience a decline in production this season. As a result, I wouldn't draft him as more than a No. 2 option in re-drafts. If you have a younger player at the position, someone like DeMarco Murray, for example, I would let Turner loose.

Would you select Darren McFadden in the first or second round in drafts? - J. Horn (via Facebook)

M.F.: In my latest mock draft, McFadden came off the board in Round 3. He clearly has first-round talent, but his proneness to injuries makes him one of the biggest risk-reward players in fantasy football. He's never played in a full season at the NFL level and has missed a combined 10 games over the last two years. On a positive note, McFadden is back at 100 percent from last season's foot ailment. He's also expected to be a workhorse back with Michael Bush now out of the mix, so owners will be tempted to grab him with one of the first 20 picks. Just beware, though, that drafting McFadden means you'll also have to target Taiwan Jones or Mike Goodson as insurance somewhere in the middle to late rounds.

What do you think of Peyton Manning this season? Will he be a good fantasy pick? - @lcanavati (via Twitter)

M.F.: Barring any setbacks in the weeks and months to come, I don't see any reason to pass on Manning if he's still on the board in the fourth or fifth round. The future Hall of Famer should have no problem hitting the 4,000-yard mark with 30 total touchdowns in his first season in the Mile High City. This is the potential problem with Manning -- he could be overvalued because of his name alone. Despite his past fantasy success, I still wouldn't be so eager to take him in one of the first three rounds. He came off the board with the first pick in Round 5 in the aforementioned mock draft.

What do you think of A.J. Green this season? Is he in danger of having a sophomore slump in fantasy football? - M. Wagner (via Facebook)

M.F.: A sophomore slump is always possible (just ask fantasy owners who drafted Mike Williams in 2011), but I think Green will actually be even better this season. The Georgia product just has that "it" factor for me, and you could see it during his rookie season when he posted 1,057 yards with seven touchdowns and finished 14th in fantasy points at his position. I have him ranked 10th among wideouts heading into 2012.

What are your thoughts on Shonn Greene? Will he break out this season? - @jacobpackrulzz (via Twitter)

M.F.: I have to admit, I thought we would have seen more out of Greene from a statistical perspective heading into his fourth pro season. He did post his best numbers in 2011, but his 1,054 yards and six touchdowns were good for just 18th in fantasy points among running backs. While the Jets plan to go with a ground-and-pound offense is good news, Greene is still going to lose at least some work to Joe McKnight. What's more, he is also in danger of losing some short-yardage (and more importantly) goal-line work to Tim Tebow. I wouldn't draft him as more than a No. 2 fantasy runner in 2012.

Is it better to go with a running back with your first two picks and grab second- or third-tier wide receivers in Rounds 3-4? - D. Muniz (via Facebook)

M.F.: Based on the current state of the NFL, where featured running backs are few and far between while quarterbacks rule the roost, I wouldn't focus on drafting two backs in the first two rounds. In fact, I would pass on every runner not named Foster to land Aaron Rodgers in the first round. With that said, I would go after Ray Rice or LeSean McCoy before taking either Tom Brady or Drew Brees. If you land a signal-caller in Round 1, your next two picks should be a running back and a wide receiver (in no specific order). While you do want to have a balanced starting lineup, you should also be looking to grab the best player available rather than having a predisposed position in mind for each round.

How do you think the Madden curse will affect Calvin Johnson? Peyton Hillis killed me last season! - @SKscotter (via Twitter)

M.F.: Hillis was on my list of players to avoid last season, due in large part to his presence of the cover of the game. But I'll tell you, passing on a guy like Megatron is going to be tough. Would I draft him in the first round? No, but I never take a wide receiver in Round 1. But if he falls to me in the second round (which is not likely to happen), I would have to make him a member of my roster. Fantasy fans do have to keep one thing in mind with Johnson, however, and that's the fact that duplicating the nearly 1,700 yards and 16 touchdowns he had last season will be next to impossible.

What are your thoughts on Brandon Marshall for this season? What about Dez Bryant? - A. Biagiarelli (via Facebook)

M.F.: I don't think Marshall could be in a better place to succeed, at least realistically, then back with Jay Cutler and as a member of the Bears. His best fantasy seasons came with Cutler throwing him the football in Denver, so the two already have a tremendous rapport. While I don't expect him to be a top-five fantasy wideout, I do think Marshall is a low-end No. 1 option and well worth a fourth-round selection. As for Bryant, I like him to post the first 1,000-yard season of his NFL career in 2012. That sort of scenario would make him a solid No. 2 fantasy receiver with middle-round value.

Is DeMarco Murray worth a second-round selection, or should I wait to draft him? - @AaronDartez (via Twitter)

M.F.: I think Murray is on the verge of a breakout season in fantasy land, but I like him as more of a third-round pick in a standard 10-team league. With that said, he could come off the board at the end of the second round in a 12-team format. The Oklahoma product has all the upside in the world, some of which he showed off during his rookie campaign. The one concern with Murray is durability -- he dealt with multiple injuries in college and suffered a broken ankle in 2011. If those ghosts from the past weren't around, Murray might be a top 15 pick in fantasy drafts.

Where would you take Brandon Lloyd in fantasy drafts next season? - N. Hafez (via Facebook)

M.F.: The Patriots do have a boatload of wide receivers on their roster, though I do think Chad Ochocinco's time with the team is going to come to an end soon. With that said, I still like Lloyd as a someone to target as a No. 3 wideout who could turn into one of the better draft bargains in fantasy land. Remember, he was the top-scoring fantasy wideout as a member of the Broncos in 2010. That was due in large part to his role in the offense of former coach Josh McDaniels, who is now back in New England as the team's offensive coordinator. Couple his past success under McDaniels with the presence of Tom Brady under center, and a season with 1,000 yards and eight to 10 touchdowns should be well within Lloyd's reach in 2012.

Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com. Have a burning question on anything fantasy related? Tweet it to @Michael_Fabiano or send a question via Facebook!

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