Trust Spiller to produce against a tough Dolphins defense

This is the most important week of the fantasy football season. It's time to take home the Super Bowl trophy. Scott Engel of crunches the numbers and reveals the true trends as you get ready to shine in the championship spotlight.

Super sizzle: These players have very positive numbers following them into Week 16.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo
Stat: Spiller is averaging 5.8 yards per carry in his last three December games.
Analysis: Spiller had a breakthrough performance in Week 15, totaling a career-best 167 yards from scrimmage. He showed newfound patience and excellent vision, and it appears he is finally starting to get into a positive rhythm as a runner. Denver's defense is playing well recently, but Spiller bested a very good Miami unit last week. Start him with confidence as your flex player.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina
Stat: In three meetings with the Buccaneers with 18 or more rushing attempts, Williams has averaged 153 yards per game and has six TDs.
Analysis: Williams does not have more than 15 carries in a game this year, but he is making the most of his touches in recent weeks. He has four TDs in his past four games, including three scores of 24 or more yards. You simply have to roll with the explosive Williams as a flex against Tampa Bay's 30th-ranked run defense.

Matt Moore, QB, Miami
Stat: In his past three road games, Moore has completed 61.3 percent of his passes for six TDs and no interceptions.
Analysis: Moore is a terrific value start for Week 16 if you have been streaming quarterbacks this season. He lines up against New England, which has the worst pass defense in the NFL. Count on Moore if you cannot roll out another top-shelf QB option in your fantasy Super Bowl.

Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants
Stat: Nicks and Cruz are the first set of Giants teammates to each reach 1,000 receiving yards in the same season.
Analysis: The Jets defense is overrated by many, and Darrelle Revis can't cover both Giants WRs on his own. Revis is not likely to cover either WR exclusively, and Eli Manning should rebound from last weekend's awful outing. Nicks and Cruz are must-starts in Week 16.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh
Stat: Mendenhall needs two rush TDs to reach 10 in consecutive seasons.
Analysis: Mendenhall may very well get to double figure scores again, as he takes on the Rams' league-worst run defense. The Steelers may get back to being a ground-based offense this week with Ben Roethlisberger out, so lock Mendenhall in as a RB2.

Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota
Stat: Harvin has five receiving TDs in his past five games.
Analysis: The Redskins have allowed 17 TD passes. Still, even if he does not score this week, Harvin has been playing so well overall in most recent weeks that you still have to maintain much faith in him as a WR2 this week.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit
Stat: Stafford has 11 TD passes and one interception in three games vs. AFC opponents this season.
Analysis: The Chargers are ranked sixth against the pass, but the Lions are driving to the postseason and will be a very formidable opponent. Stafford should lead the way to victory with at least two TD passes and 300 passing yards.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle
Stat: Lynch has scored in a franchise-record 10 consecutive games.
Analysis: The 49ers still have yet to allow a rushing TD, so this will be a spectacular clash of opposing wills. Lynch is playing at home and Tarvaris Jackson is playing well enough to move the team into consistent scoring position. This is going to be a highly-charged divisional showdown. Bet on Lynch for a score, and ride him to a fantasy championship. He is simply playing too well to be overwhelmed by the matchup or reserved.

Big game rebounds?: These players have some negative numbers to shake off in Week 16.

Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco
Stat: Gore has not rushed for 100 yards since Week 9.
Analysis: Gore ended a five-game streak of 100-yard outings in Week 9, but he has not rushed for more than 88 yards in a game since. The 49ers still are playing for the top seed in the NFC, though, and Gore has scored in his past two games. He's banged up, but the Niners need to keep giving him the ball, and you must keep him in your lineups.

Eric Decker, WR, Denver
Stat: Decker has one TD catch in his past five games
Analysis: Decker had 7 TD receptions through Week 10, but has cooled off considerably in recent weeks. The Bills have allowed 26 passing TDs, third-worst in the league. This should be the week Decker revisits the end zone.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, Tampa Bay
Stat: Blount has 114 rushing yards in his past three games.
Analysis: Carolina's defense ranks 25th against the run, but the Panthers could jump out to a lead against the Buccaneers that renders Blount as a lesser factor. If you are facing a tight decision between Blount and another player, go with the alternative. Blount is a regular risk to be removed from the game plan when the Bucs are losing.

Beanie Wells, RB, Arizona
Stat: Wells has rushed for 78 yards in his past two games.
Analysis: Wells is playing with a sore knee and is starting to show signs of wearing down late in the season. Consider reserving him against a Bengals defense that yields 99.6 rushing yards per game.

Plaxico Burress, WR, New York Jets
Stat: Burress has 42 receiving yards in his past three games.
Analysis: Burress had one catch for nine yards last week, even though it was a TD, and was blanked in Week 14. This week, though, he faces the Giants, his former team, and he is a very strong bet for a good fantasy game. We'll go out on a limb and predict two Burress scores even if the yardage is not great.

Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh
Stat: Wallace's last 100-yard game came in Week 7.
Analysis: Wallace has also failed to score in four of his past five games. He has been unreliable recently, and the fact that Charlie Batch will start at QB is almost irrelevant. Wallace is no longer a must-start, and reserve him if you are loaded with top-shelf fantasy WRs and need to bench one.

Rex Grossman, QB, Washington
Stat: Grossman has five TDs and six INTs in his past four games.
Analysis: Grossman has a seemingly tasty matchup against Minnesota's 30th-ranked pass defense. But he is still Rex Grossman, which means he is erratic and risky no matter how good the matchup seems to be. Don't get too cute and start Grossman over a consistently better QB this week. You may regret it if you do.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia
Stat: Maclin has four catches for 70 yards in his past two games.
Analysis: Maclin did score in his first meeting with the Cowboys this year, and the rivalry could bring out the real version of a WR that has been pushed off-track by injuries this year. Maclin is a roll of the dice but still has the potential to post good numbers this week, so do not write him off.

You can now get THREE FREE questions answered with the NEW RotoExperts advice app for your Android Phone! If you have an Android phone, all you need to do is search for our FREE RotoXAdvice app. It's ROTOXADVICE on the Android Market.

This article has been reproduced in a new format and may be missing content or contain faulty links. Please use the Contact Us link in our site footer to report an issue.