Rob Gronkowski highlights fantasy mock first round

"The more things change, the more they stay the same."

That isn't just a Cinderella tune from the 1990s, it's also a pretty good statement on the 2015 NFL offseason as it relates to fantasy football. A boatload of big-name players will be wearing new uniforms in 2015, but your draft philosophy shouldn't change for the most part ... you should still target running backs and wide receivers first, and wait on quarterbacks (not named Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck) and tight ends (not named Rob Gronkowski).

Before I start the second one-man, five-round mock for 2015, keep in mind that a total of 16 quarterbacks had at least 250 fantasy points in 2014. That's half of the entire league's starters! Back in 2009, a mere eight signal-callers reached that mark. This just adds fuel to the fire of waiting on a quarterback. Based on this draft philosophy, I've reached the postseason 17 times with 11 championship appearances in my last 20 fantasy football leagues.

Keep this in mind when you look at the mock draft below (and before sending angry tweets), as quarterbacks have been de-valued at the expense of more premium positions like running back and wide receiver. Another thing you'll notice is that there are not a lot of fantasy runners you can trust, so if you pass on the position in the first two rounds, well, good luck with your backfield.

This mock draft is based on NFL.com's standard 10-team leagues with a basic (non-PPR) scoring system that rewards four points for touchdown passes and six points for all other touchdowns scored. Each numbered position represents an individual fantasy team, so no more than one quarterback, three running backs, three wide receivers or one tight end will be selected per roster.

Round 1

1. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: Bell might be the most talented youngster in the entire league at the running back position. A versatile performer, he is as dangerous a runner as he is a pass catcher out of the backfield. Bell's one downfall, though, is a potential suspension for a DUI that could drop him out of the top overall spot. Stay tuned...

2. Eddie Lacy, RB. Green Bay Packers: A bruising young runner out of Alabama, Lacy has finished in the top 10 in fantasy points at the position in each of his first two NFL seasons. An underrated receiver, he's a three-down back who also has the advantage of playing in an offense that features Aaron Rodgers. At 24, Lacy is entering the prime of his career.

3. Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: Charles experienced a decline in statistics across the board last season, but he still ranked among the top fantasy running backs in the league. A speedster who can take it to the house any time he touches the football, Charles, 28, is a lock to remain one of the first five players picked at his position in all drafts.

4. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings: I have no idea where Peterson will play next season, but I've moved him into the top five overall players regardless. His situation is one that all fantasy fans need to pay close attention to in the coming months. If he lands in Dallas with the Cowboys, Peterson will surpass Bell, Lacy and Charles among all players.

5. Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears: Forte is one of the most versatile backs in the league, which was evident during his 102-catch campaign in 2014. While he did lose a bit of his luster when the Bears fired Marc Trestman, he'll remain a featured runner under new head man John Fox. At 29, however, this could end up being Forte's last huge year in the stat sheets.

6. LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills: I know, McCoy was one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy football a year ago. But at the age of 26 and now in the run-based offense of new coach Rex Ryan, I like his chances to rebound. McCoy has also finished second in fantasy points at the position in each of his last two odd-numbered seasons. Just a fun stat there.

7. Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots: The unquestioned top fantasy tight end heading into 2015, Gronkowski produced 82 catches, 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns in 15 games last season. A true touchdown machine, he's found the end zone a combined 54 times in his 65 career regular-season contests (0.83 per game). Let's all just hope he avoids injuries.

8. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks: No running back has had more carries than Lynch over the last four years, so fantasy owners have to be concerned about him breaking down entering his age-29 campaign. However, anyone who has seen "Beast Mode" run would be hard pressed to notice him slowing down out on the gridiron. You can't pass on him at this spot.

9. Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: The top wide receiver in fantasy football, Brown is coming off a career-best campaign that saw him post league highs in both receptions (129) and receiving yards (1,698). At the age of 26 and entering the prime of his career, Brown will have his name called in Round 1 in standard drafts and countless PPR formats too.

10. Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans: Foster missed three games last season due to injuries, but he still finished among the five-best running backs in fantasy football. One of the few featured backs left in the league, Foster has rushed for over 1,200 yards in each of his last four "full" seasons. While injuries are a concern, Foster's still worth the risk.

Round 2

11. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos: Over the last three years, few wide receivers have been more consistent in the stat sheets than Thomas. In that time, he's finished no worse than fifth in fantasy points at the position while catching passes from a future Hall of Famer in Peyton Manning. Thomas is also playing in what amounts to a contract campaign.

12. C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos: Anderson was one of the top waiver-wire pickups last season, scoring 19-plus fantasy points in six of his final eight games. While Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball are also in the mix for carries in Denver, it would be a shock if Anderson didn't lead the team in backfield touches. He's a surefire top-20 overall selection.

13. Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions:Megatron missed three games last season due to injuries, which was a huge part of the reason he fell out of the top 15 in fantasy points among wideouts. It's tough to see a scenario where he doesn't bounce back, however, as he still has one of the elite resumes in the league at his position. He won't last beyond Round 2.

14. Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: A lot of people would argue that Hill has first-round talent, and I would agree with that assessment. However, I still wonder how much of a dent Giovani Bernard will put into Hill's opportunities next season. I like him as a high-end No. 2 fantasy runner moving forward, but I wouldn't draft Hill until the second round.

15. Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys: Want to talk wide receivers and touchdowns? Let's talk about Bryant, who has found the end zone 41 times in the last three seasons combined. That's the most of any wideout during that stretch. Fantasy fans should keep tabs on his contract situation, though, as Bryant could decide not to attend offseason camps since he's franchised.

16. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons: Jones might have scored just six touchdowns last season, but he also produced career bests in receptions (104) and yards (1,593). His success should continue in the "X" receiver position under new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, and the fact that he's entering a contract year makes Jones even more attractive. He could have his best season.

17. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants: I've heard plenty of fans suggest that Beckham is worth a first-round pick in 2015. That would be true if we were guaranteed to get the 17 fantasy points per game he averaged as a rookie, but we all know there are no guarantees in the NFL. Regardless, OBJ won't be on the board after the first 20 overall selections.

18. Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers: Nelson finished tied for second in fantasy points among wideouts last season, posting 1,519 yards with 13 touchdowns. With Randall Cobb re-signing with the Packers, this team will have the best duo of wideouts in fantasy football once again. It's hard not to like Nelson more from a statistical perspective, however.

19. DeMarco Murray, RB, Philadelphia Eagles: Here's where things get a little worrisome at running back. While Murray was the top-scoring player at his position last season, he also had an enormous number of touches (436 including the playoffs). Now with the Eagles, he's going to lose work to both Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles. There's a lot of risk here.

20. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears: Jeffery passed his former teammate, Brandon Marshall, as one of the top wide receivers in fantasy football last season. And now that Marshall is in New York, well, Jeffery's stock is on the rise. A gifted athlete with some of the stickiest hands in the entire league, Jeffery has moved into the top 10 at his position.

Round 3

21. Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins: Miller earned a true featured role for the Dolphins last season, rushing for 1,099 yards with a solid 5.1 yards-per-carry average. He's now entering a contract year at the age of 24, so he'll have motivation to produce at a high level again.

22. Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay Packers: Cobb was a top-five fantasy wideout last season, and he could remain at that level after deciding against leaving Green Bay. But at a position that is pretty deep at the top, the Kentucky product is more of a low-end No. 1 fantasy option.

23. Alfred Morris, RB, Washington Redskins: Morris has seen his carries and rushing yards decline in each of his first three seasons at the pro level, but he's still a virtual lock to perform like a No. 2 fantasy runner. He should also benefit from the addition of Bill Callahan.

24. A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: Green missed three games due to injuries and was banged up in a few others last season, so it's not a surprise that he posted his worst numbers at the NFL level. With that said, he has second-round talent and could be a draft bargain.

25. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers: Rodgers is going to go a lot higher in countless 2015 fantasy drafts, even as high as the No. 1 overall selection. But you know me, I'm simply not going to take a field general, even one as good as Rodgers, in one of the first two rounds.

26. Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints: It took four years, but Ingram finally looked like a first-round running back in 2014. He'll be back with the Saints in an offense that could become a lot more balanced, so don't be surprised if he comes off the board in the second round.

27. Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts: Luck is the lone field general to throw for 40 touchdowns in 2014, and at age 25 he hasn't even reached the prime of his career. So why has he lasted so long in this draft? Simple supply and demand. Luck does have first-round talent, though.

28. Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers: Hyde is going to be one of the most popular breakout candidates in fantasy football next season, even more so after the departure of Frank Gore. While he will lose some touches to Reggie Bush, Hyde still has third-round draft appeal.

29. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts: Hilton has seen both his yardage and touchdown totals increase in each of the last two seasons, and at 25 he still hasn't hit his statistical ceiling at the pro level. It also doesn't hurt that he'll have Luck throwing him the pigskin.

30. Joique Bell, RB, Detroit Lions: Bell could wind up seeing a bigger role in the Lions offense next season with the absence of Bush, so don't be surprised if he moves up in future mock drafts. Of course, he could also lose some value if the Lions draft another running back.

Round 4

31. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver Broncos: Sanders ranked eighth in fantasy points among wideouts last season, but would a Manning decline bring his stats back to Earth?
32. Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens: Re-signing with the Ravens keeps Forsett prominent in fantasy land. That is, assuming he remains the team's featured runner.
33. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Evans could push his way into the third round in a lot of 2015 fantasy football drafts, but can he score another 12 touchdowns?
34. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans: The wideout torch in Houston has been passed from Andre Johnson to Hopkins, who has plenty of upside at the tender age of 22.
35. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers: Benjamin is an athletic freak and red-zone beast for the Panthers. His rapport with Cam Newton will just improve next season.
36. Tre Mason, RB, St. Louis Rams Mason showed some flashes of potential in his rookie year. Let's just hope coach Jeff Fisher doesn't turn him into the next Zac Stacy.
37. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers: Stewart looks like the featured back in Carolina, but he needs to stay healthy to meet his gridiron and fantasy potential.
38. DeSean Jackson, WR, Washington Redskins: Jackson had a nice season with the Redskins, and grabbing him at this point as a No. 2 or 3 fantasy wideout makes sense.
39. Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints: Cooks looks to benefit the most in New Orleans after the team restructured its offensive personnel during the offseason.
40. Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks: Graham is still the No. 2 fantasy tight end, but his stock does take an obvious tumble moving from New Orleans to Seattle.

Round 5

41. Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks: Graham does lose value, but Wilson will benefit from his presence in the offense. He won't last this long in some drafts.
42. Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos: Manning was awful in the stat sheets over the final four weeks of 2014. And at 39, fans will have some concerns this season.
43. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints: Brees is still a top-notch fantasy quarterback, but I'm thinking he won't be throwing the football 600-plus times anymore.
44. Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts: Gore is long in the tooth, but he's a good fit for the Colts offense. He's on the No. 2 running back radar in most formats.
45. Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills: Watkins has the talent to be one of the top fantasy wideouts in 2015, but Buffalo's quarterback spot is a major question mark.
46. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Cleveland Browns: I'm a big fan of Crowell, who figures to earn a lot of work in the Browns backfield in 2015. He's a good sleeper candidate.
47. Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders: Fans looking for a potential sleeper among runners should consider Murray, who should take over as Oakland's top RB option.
48. Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots: Edelman isn't an elite fantasy option, but he's clearly a trusted choice in the New England pass attack for Tom Brady.
49. Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: Bernard's stock has fallen after the emergence of Hill, but talent alone keeps him in the mix as a No. 2 fantasy back.
50. Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons: Shanahan loves Freeman's skill set, so there's sleeper appeal here. His lack of size will bring out some doubters, though.

Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Have a burning question on anything fantasy related? Tweet it to @Michael_Fabiano or send a question via Facebook!

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