Remember Mike Mamula, the workout warrior out of Boston College who parlayed a strong combine showing into a first-round NFL contract with the Philadelphia Eagles in 1995? Well, so do the fans in Philadelphia, who shudder at the mere mention of his name.
But Mamula isn't alone in the discussion of players with limited college resumes who star in personal workouts to improve their draft stock only to fail at the next level. There have been numerous examples over the years.
The art -- some would say, gambler's luck -- is in determining which of those prospects can turn that natural athleticism into NFL playing ability.
But there is another group of players that also keeps scouts awake at night -- the one-year college wonders.
In the world of NFL scouting, things have to make sense. Certain physical traits lend themselves to success at certain positions. Elite level results in specific speed and agility tests and position drills can translate to success on the fields of the NFL. More than anything else, production over the course of a full college career is hard to dismiss.
When in doubt, scouts will always rely on what they know best. They will go to the tape. But the players who seemingly appear out of nowhere and produce that one great college season are the ones who make scouts nervous. As Eagles GM Tom Heckert said to me the other day, "If a four-year player has a bad game, there's lots more tape to watch. If a one-year guy has a bad game, you have to wonder."
And worry, because when the scouts go to the tape, there isn't much there. There is no body of work to examine, and in the mildly paranoid mind of the NFL scout, that leads to questions.
If the player was so good, why did it take him so long to find a starting job? What changed from one year to the next? How much of an effect did those changes actually have on the player's performance on the field? Is the one strong season an aberration, or is the player a late bloomer?
In the NFL, we like to measure success, and these things can't be measured. They can be examined, but ultimately a judgment must be made, and that's where the inexactness of the draft comes into play. Each situation must be considered on its own merits, and there are several such situations with this year's draft class:
Devin Thomas, wide receiver, Michigan State
Thomas is coming off a record-breaking season at Michigan State where he etched his name in the Spartans record book alongside the likes of Andre Rison and Plaxico Burress with 79 catches for 1,260 yards and eight touchdowns. After a promising freshman season at Coffeyville Community College, he transferred to Michigan State and promptly landed on the bench, catching just six balls as a sophomore. But the arrival of new head coach Mark Dantonio signaled a new start for Thomas. The coach saw potential in the 6-2, 215-pound speedster and started working him into the offense.
But as quick as it started, the ride ended in East Lansing for Thomas, who applied for the 2008 draft as an early entry junior, much to the disappointment of Dantonio. And from afar, it appears like Thomas is trying to cash in on a class of receivers that is not as strong at the top.
"Coming off the season he had, and looking at the senior corps of receivers, we felt like it was a prime opportunity for him to enter the NFL," said Devin's father, Dwight Thomas.
Thomas has backed up his strong junior campaign with some impressive workout numbers, to the point where he is generally considered the top wide receiver in the draft and could be a consideration for the Buffalo Bills with the 11th overall pick. However, the elder Thomas also said that Dantonio presented several reasons why Devin should stay for his senior year, some of which had to do with his development as a player. You can bet Dantonio will be getting some phone calls from NFL personnel people trying to find out what those reasons were.
Pat Sims, defensive tackle, Auburn
Another player reportedly on the Bills' radar, Sims had a standout junior season at Auburn and decided to ride that success into the NFL. He was a first-team All-SEC selection in 2007, recording 4½ sacks for minus-47 yards, 11½ tackles for loss, and 15 QB pressures for a defense that ranked among the best in the nation. And he did it all with a cast on his broken left hand.
What made his season so surprising was the fact that he played on the scout team as a freshman, left the team in 2005, and wasn't even a starter in 2006. So scouts want to know if he's a one-year wonder, or if he's now becoming the impact player some people think he can be? These are the type of questions that make the draft such an inexact exercise.
Sims declared for the draft close to the filing deadline and teams are still trying to put together enough of a file on him to make their decision, which hurts his status. And his workouts in the postseason have been inconsistent. Despite all that, he's still listed on most boards as a solid second-round prospect. For those who have done their homework, they also found that his issues in 2005, which included some disagreements with coaches, stemmed from the sudden death of his 32-year-old sister, a situation which he admittedly didn't handle well. Rather than force the issue, though, he left school and came back with a new attitude.
"Once I came back, it was me all over again," Sims told scouts this winter. "I was back into it. I missed hitting people, pretty much my love of football. When I spent time away from football, it gave me a chance to think about what I really wanted to do in life, a lot of time to evaluate myself."
The way Sims handled the situation and the way he responded once he dealt with it might ultimately help him in the end. This is obviously a player who had to mature quickly, and clearly has found a love for the game. He still lacks experience and will need to improve some of his skills to excel at the next level, but a team that is willing to be patient with him could be rewarded in the long term.
DaJaun Morgan, safety, N.C. State
A former wideout, Morgan dislocated his hip as a senior in high school. After trying to compete early as a freshman, he came to the realization that he physically wasn't ready and decided to sit out the rest of the season. When he came back fully healed, he was now a safety working his way up the ladder on special teams. He finally found his way into the starting lineup last year as a junior, but never really found a home, flip-flopping between strong safety and free safety, but he led the team in tackles (97) and interceptions (three).
Morgan ran a 4.5-second 40-yard dash at the combine, which automatically put him on the radar of a bunch of teams, but this is a player who needs plenty of refining, needs to gain more experience, and in truth, needs to find a position. But look for him to be drafted higher than his actual talent would call for because of his athletic ability. Patience could be rewarded here as well.
Kentwan Balmer, defensive tackle, North Carolina
Like Morgan, Balmer struggled early in his career. Originally a defensive end, he was eventually moved to defensive tackle as a junior in hopes of sparking some production out of his unlimited potential. But an ankle injury, questions about his effort and motivation, and inconsistent play dogged him through most of his career. But like Thomas, Balmer responded to a coaching change that brought former NFL coach Butch Davis to Chapel Hill. Balmer thrived under Davis and his staff, surpassing his cumulative statistics from his first three seasons in just one year.
The "new" Balmer drew comparisons to the Patriots' Richard Seymour due to his size, athleticism, and versatility (he played some DE in 3-4 alignments). But a poor showing at the combine and limited action at his pro day due to a hamstring injury are making scouts nervous.
He has a laid-back attitude that can be misconstrued, and after climbing into the top 20 on some boards, he is now a late first- or early second-round consideration. Some team will take a chance on him because of his size and athletic ability, but he is a classic boom-or-bust prospect because NFL teams can't figure out which player they are going to get. Unless he does something tangible to change scouts' opinion of him before the draft, he has the potential to slide even further.
Rashard Mendenhall, running back, Illinois
Mendenhall is an example of the over-analysis that goes into the NFL draft. After nondescript freshman and sophomore seasons, Mendenhall rushed for 1,600 yards as a junior, tallied nearly 2,000 total yards, with 34 receptions and 17 touchdowns, while garnering Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year honors. Yet still, the people making the decisions for teams will ask: Why only the one year?
Mendenhall has been a contributor since his freshman year, but wasn't handed the starting runnning back reins until 2007. He has done all he can in postseason workouts and in one-on-one interviews with teams to prove his worth, and current Bears offensive coordinator Ron Turner, who recruited Mendenhall to Illinois, can't say enough good things about him, which will help him in the eyes of NFL personnel people.
Plus, the lack of wear and tear on his body could eventually work in his favor. NFL coaches love fresh legs. Judging by the interest he's received from teams and the right way he's gone about his business with regard to the draft, this is a situation where scouts will be more comfortable looking past his limited body of work.
Carl Nicks, tackle, Nebraska
Nicks has tremendous size and physical tools, but academic troubles and off-field issues have limited the opportunities scouts have had to see him perform. He missed a start in one game last season due to a suspension, and he was removed from the Nebraska Pro Day because of an arrest. In his one season as a starter in 2007, he allowed just one sack in 481 pass plays and recorded 76 pancake blocks. He was also called for just one penalty in 898 snaps.
That production, combined with a strong showing at the Senior Bowl and the combine, make him an obvious NFL prospect. But teams get nervous when they see players who are as well traveled as Nicks, who failed out of New Mexico State, spent a year in junior college, and then took two years to earn a starting job on a struggling Nebraska team.
Nicks might be one of those players, who unlike Mendenhall, might not be able to overcome the lack of a complete body of work. It will cost him millions of dollars as he slides through the draft with teams thinking they just don't know for sure what they are getting.
One-year wonders have burned teams before and some have been excellent additions, two reasons why personnel directors and head coaches around the league are all a little uncomfortable with one season of college starts to put a final grade on a player.
