Four weeks left. Four weeks to storm into the playoffs or peter out.
The 2025 season is hitting its crescendo, with nearly every Week 15 matchup having playoff implications for one or both teams. The leverage gained with each win for playoff-hopeful teams is matched by the added desperation that comes from a defeat. Not every loss will mathematically eliminate clubs, but at this stage, coming up short is much more difficult to overcome.
Some teams, like the Chiefs, need a win to give themselves any hope. The Ravens and Panthers would see their odds dip below 20% with a loss. Some squads are spiraling and desperately need a victory to right the ship. Others, facing stiff tests down the road, need to pick up a win before things become more difficult.
Ahead of a massive Week 15 slate, I've identified my top five teams most in need of a win.
Week 15 opponent: at Seahawks
They’re at DEFCON: Sign a 44-year-old Granddad in Indy.
Bringing in Philip Rivers underscores the desperation the Colts are experiencing after Daniel Jones’ season-ending Achilles injury. A QB room that was a question entering the season appeared to be stabilized by Jones. Now it’s more chaotic than a four-year-old’s bedroom after a playdate. Anthony Richardson remains on injured reserve. Rookie Riley Leonard is dealing with a PCL sprain. Clearly, Indy doesn’t trust practice-squad QB Brett Rypien much.
Rivers hasn’t thrown an NFL pass since Jan. 9, 2021, when the Colts lost to Buffalo in the Wild Card Round. That was the last time they made the postseason. Perhaps the football gods have a sense of humor.
The Colts were off to a 7-1 start, with Jones playing superbly. They looked poised to coast into the postseason. The deadline deal for Sauce Gardner was supposed to be the move that put them over the top. Now, Gardner is hurt, Jones is done for the year, and Indy is spiraling.
Losing four of their last five games, the Colts have fallen from the No. 1 seed in the AFC in Week 10 to out of playoff position. Sometimes, four weeks is all it takes to flip the script in the NFL. They have four more to write. Shane Steichen’s club has a 32% chance to make the postseason, per Next Gen Stats, with a measly 6% shot to recapture the division. A win Sunday boosts their odds to 58%, while a loss pushes them to 27%. The 31 percentage-point swing is the highest of any AFC team in Week 15.
They get no reprieve down the stretch. Sunday, they face 10-3 Seattle on the road, then host 9-4 San Francisco, 9-4 Jacksonville and head to 8-5 Houston for the finale. If Indy can’t find a way to best a very good Mike Macdonald defense in Week 15, Rivers’ comeback will be a footnote that does nothing more than push off his Hall of Fame candidacy for five years.
Week 15 opponent: vs. Chargers
Welp, scratch off almost everything I wrote last week. Swing and a miss.
The Chiefs lost the first game of their five-game sprint to the end of the season, with Andy Reid’s offense unable to puncture the Houston defense. Setting aside the controversial fourth-down decisions, the issues that have plagued the team all season were on full display. Patrick Mahomes couldn’t connect on splash plays. The run game offered no reprieve outside of 2-yard dives by Kareem Hunt in short-yardage situations. And the pass-catchers can’t stop dropping balls. Travis Kelce looks like a man seeing the end of the road right in front of him.
The loss to Houston dropped the Chiefs' playoff chances to 10%, per NGS. Their streak of AFC West titles has already been snapped at nine, with their lone shot at extending their playoff streak running through the wild card (1% chance at No. 6 seed; 10% chance at No. 7 seed).
The room for error now is zero. A Week 15 loss would officially eliminate the Chiefs from playoff contention. Even with a win, their odds only increase to 16%. Kansas City needs to win out, and it needs help from others.
On Sunday the Chiefs face a Chargers team that bested the Eagles in overtime on Monday night, with Justin Herbert gritting through a broken left hand. Kansas City lost the season opener to Los Angeles in Brazil, a game that feels like it happened eons ago. Since then, the reigning AFC champions have stumbled in close games, and outside of a three-game win streak in October, haven’t been able to keep their heads above water.
Losers of four of their last five, the Chiefs are on the brink. A win would keep their hopes alive for another week.
Week 15 opponent: vs. Raiders
This again. Philly fans are reliving the cyclical nightmare of following up an NFC Championship with a combustible campaign. The 2025 season is following an eerily similar path to the 2023 implosion, highlighted by a rocky offense and embattled coordinator.
Kevin Patullo’s offense can’t decide what it wants to be, with head-scratching play-calling weekly and an inability to consistently move the chains. He leans on Saquon Barkley for a spell before oddly going away from the reigning Offensive Player of the Year just as he begins to find traction. The Jalen Hurts-led passing attack almost exclusively lives on low-percentage outside throws, in an offense that lacks easy answers for the QB. Before Week 14’s turnover parade, at least we could say Hurts had been taking care of the ball.
The offensive line injuries are a massive issue and underscore that the unit has always been the backbone of the squad.
If it weren’t for Vic Fangio’s defense, the team would already be making Cancun plans.
As in 2023, when Philly got off to a 10-1 start before stumbling down the stretch to finish 11-6 and meekly bowed out of the postseason, the Eagles have been wobbly following their bye. They are 2-3 since the Week 9 break, averaging 16.2 points per game during that stretch.
Luckily for Nick Sirianni’s crew, the Cowboys’ own stumbles have kept the Eagles’ breathing room intact. Philly still has a 91% chance to win the NFC East, per NGS. With games against Las Vegas (2-11), Washington (3-10), Buffalo (9-4) and Washington again, the Eagles control their own destiny.
After their ugly three-game skid, Sunday’s game against Vegas is a must-win, not only to keep Dallas at bay, but to prevent the locals from revolting. Sirianni’s club needs to trounce a two-win opponent to get some mojo back.
Week 15 opponent: at Bengals
There are rollercoasters, then there is whatever the heck the Ravens are riding this season. A 1-5 start, in which the defense couldn’t stop a runny nose, was buttressed by a five-game win streak in which they didn’t allow 20 points. Then, with the division lead in their grasp, they kerplunked back-to-back AFC North home games.
The defensive ebbs and flows have partially stemmed from an inability to consistently get after the passer. Baltimore ranks 30th with 19 sacks this season. Rookie Mike Green leads the team with 2.5 sacks. The inability to push a QB off his spot reared its head in Week 14, when they allowed Aaron Rodgers to turn back the clock and divebomb them for splash plays. Giving life to an offense that had been DOA for much of the season is a bad sign.
While the defense has been a concern, the more pressing issue at this stage is that the offense looks little like what we expect from a Lamar Jackson-led unit. Baltimore has been a turnover machine with six giveaways the past two weeks, including five in Week 13 and a game-changing INT on Sunday.
Jackson hasn’t been nearly as dynamic as in past seasons. He’s generated a single game with 250-plus yards passing (288 in Week 3) and one game with 50-plus yards rushing (Week 1, 70 yards). The hamstring injury, which wiped out three-plus games, has clearly played a role in his reduced explosiveness running the ball, but Jackson hasn’t looked comfortable as a runner or thrower this season.
The Ravens' running game comes and goes. They piled up 217 rushing yards against the Steelers, but they couldn’t push forward in crucial short-yardage situations.
The offensive inconsistency has mirrored the Ravens' tumultuous season. Baltimore has a 40.6% play success rate, per NGS. For comparison, that’s 0.1% higher than the 3-win Saints, who have started Spencer Rattler and rookie Tyler Shough at quarterback. The red zone has been a particular issue. They rank near the bottom of the league in red-zone success rate this season at 32.9%. During their two-game skid, that success rate fell to 21.4%. Baltimore must find a way to reach paydirt more efficiently down the stretch to keep its season alive.
It starts with Sunday’s rematch against Cincy. On Thanksgiving night, the Ravens moved the ball but turned it over five times, allowing the Bengals to run away with the game. If Jackson can’t protect the ball and beat a pillow-soft defense, Baltimore has no shot at resurrecting the season. The Ravens finish up with the 11-2 Patriots, 9-3-1 Packers and a rematch with division-leading Pittsburgh. If they don’t win on Sunday, that Week 18 rivalry matchup could end up being meaningless.
Week 15 opponent: vs. Browns
There are games with more at stake when it comes to making the playoffs, and a loss doesn’t doom Ben Johnson’s club. However, Sunday’s game against a 3-win Browns team is pivotal to preventing the defeats from spiraling. Coming off a loss in Green Bay, it’s not a true trap game for the Bears, but they can’t afford to look ahead to the Week 16 Packers rematch before handling their business.
After falling from the NFC’s No. 1 seed to No. 7, Chicago currently has a 65% playoff probability, per NGS. That figure falls to 47% with a loss, while a win boosts it to 72%.
The Browns are a bottom-five team that just lost at home to the previously 1-win Titans. Yet, the defense, led by Myles Garrett, can wreck games. Rookie Shedeur Sanders has brought more spice to the offense. Cleveland already beat the Packers earlier this year after Green Bay bungled multiple chances to close the game. That should serve as a lesson for Johnson’s crew.
Contending teams regularly blast unworthy opponents. Can Johnson’s club stamp the Browns, or will it come down to the wire, as it has with other doormats, like the one-point wins over Vegas and Washington, and a 4-pointer at home against the Giants?
Caleb Williams has done a masterful job this season when it comes to avoiding the back-breaking plays and he’s made splashing jaw-droppers when needed. Johnson’s ground game has come on strong in recent weeks, and after watching the Titans scamper all over Jim Schwartz's defense last week, he should dial it up another notch. The Bears' defense gives up yards, but feasts on turnovers, generating a league-high 27, including 11 in the past six weeks. They should have a shot to generate a few more against Sanders on Sunday. On paper, a 9-win team should run away with this game. The Bears need to make it so.
In Johnson’s first season, the Bears have avoided -- sometimes miraculously -- the complete clunker against bad teams. They need to prevent the first from happening on Sunday at Soldier Field.
On deck are games against the Packers, 49ers and Lions. A loss to Cleveland, and the Bears would be staring at a slew of virtual must-wins to avoid a ruinous ending to an otherwise positive first season under Johnson.
