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The 2025 regular season is over, but the Pro insights don't stop here! Now we turn to the postseason and the six-game Wild Card Round! As always, to better understand and decipher the storylines of the week, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each contest.
For Wild Card Weekend, we're breaking down the most crucial matchups from each of the six contests across both conferences. These are the biggest insights to know, with all the relevant NFL Pro context and the fallout we can expect on Saturday, Sunday and Monday!
Matthew Stafford from a clean pocket against the Panthers
As a candidate for the NFL's Most Valuable Player award, it's no surprise that Matthew Stafford has been statistically superb across the board. But specifically, he has been unstoppable from a clean pocket in 2025, throwing 42 touchdowns and just seven interceptions, with a 118.6 passer rating, 8.3 yards per attempt and 0.38 EPA/dropback when not pressured. In fact, Stafford's 42 touchdown passes from a clean pocket are the most in a single season in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016), breaking the previous high of 40 set by Aaron Rodgers. Stafford and the Rams were 5-1 in games he was pressured fewer than 10 times … but that one loss did come against the Carolina Panthers in Week 13.
The Panthers enter the Wild Card Round with the lowest QB pressure rate of any defense at just 26.2% — not any defense in the postseason, any defense in the entire league. When they faced Stafford last, they pressured him just four times — tied for his fewest in a game all year — but made those pressures count with two sacks and one interception. If they can ratchet up the pressure on Saturday, or capitalize that effectively on limited chances once again, the Panthers will have a shot at the upset … otherwise Stafford may pick them apart.
The Packers defense against Caleb Williams … without Micah Parsons (again)
Quite a bit about Caleb Williams's performances against the Packers stayed the same between Weeks 14 and 16. He completed 19 of 35 attempts on 39 dropbacks (with two TDs) in the Week 14 loss … and completed 19 of 34 attempts on 37 dropbacks (with two TDs) in the Week 16 win. But besides Jordan Love exiting the second game with a concussion, there was one other major personnel change between the two matches: Micah Parsons missed the second meeting after suffering a season-ending injury in Week 15. Perhaps largely as a result, Williams was pressured on 5.9% fewer dropbacks, averaged 2.1 more yards per attempt, threw one fewer interception and logged a 0.25 EPA/dropback increase in Week 16 versus Week 14. Williams' 5.3 yards per attempt against the Packers with Parsons was his second-lowest of the season, while his 7.4 yards per attempt in Week 16 without Parsons was above his season average.
Including the game against Denver that Parsons tore his ACL, Green Bay has lost four straight, while allowing 28.3 points per game (after starting 9-3-1 and allowing 19.0 PPG the first 14 weeks). Getting Love back on Saturday will help, but the defense needs to step up in Parson's absence and find a way to limit Williams and the Bears offense in the rubber match.
Travis Etienne and Trevor Lawrence against a beatable Bills run defense
Travis Etienne's contributions as a receiver have truly set him apart this season, but he did rack up 1,107 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground in 2025. And over the past month, Trevor Lawrence has picked up his own contributions in the run game, totaling 108 yards and four touchdowns rushing over that span. That said, Jacksonville has not been the most efficient unit in 2025, averaging just 4.0 yards per carry (sixth-fewest) and 0.1 rush yards over expected per carry (seventh-fewest). Etienne only topped 100 rushing yards twice (in Weeks 1 and 4) and has 50 or fewer yards on the ground in three of his last four games.
That said, the Bills have been a "solution" for inefficient run games all year. They've allowed the third-most yards per carry in 2025 (5.14) and the fifth-most rushing yards per game (136.2) — both the most of any playoff team. They're bottom 10 in NFL Pro defensive efficiency in nearly every rushing category, including designed runs, rushes inside and outside the tackles and QB scrambles as well. The Jags have largely ridden Lawrence's red-hot arm to an eight-game win streak entering the Wild Card Round, but in this matchup, the real danger for Buffalo might be Jacksonville's occasionally explosive ground game.
Brock Purdy's efficient passing attack against Philly's dangerous defense
At the end of the season, the 49ers' passing offense ranked seventh in NFL Pro's overall efficiency, while clocking in at least that high on short passes, intermediate passes, passing without pressure, passing without play action and passing without a blitz. Brock Purdy's 100.5 passer rating was eighth-highest among qualified quarterbacks, his +5.1% completion percentage over expected was only typed by MVP frontrunner Drake Maye (+9.1%) and his 52.6% success rate was the top mark in the league. While his raw numbers aren't as notable — with eight missed games having a major effect — Purdy has been among the most efficient passers in the game.
Unfortunately for him, the Eagles defense has also been among the league's most efficient … against the pass. They're top five in most of NFL Pro's dozen passing metrics and allowed a league-low 72.7 passer rating and 60.3% completion rate on short and intermediate passes (where Purdy thrives). On those throws, they are one of just two defenses with more interceptions (11) than touchdowns allowed (nine) — along with the Chargers — and surrendered just a 43.0% success rate (fifth-best by any defense). This is a clash of great on great, and the highly efficient unit that can edge out the other on Sunday will likely come away victorious.
Drake Maye's downfield passing against the stout Chargers secondary
Patriots QB Drake Maye has quickly blossomed into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and the likely winner of the 2025 MVP award. A major factor in that breakout? His downfield throws — also known as passes of 10+ air yards. On those passes, Maye has a league-leading 126.1 passer rating, 61.2% completion rate, 60.1% success rate and 0.71 EPA/dropback, with 19 TDs and six INTs on the season. His +11.5% completion percentage over expected on downfield throws isn't just the highest among qualified passers in 2025, it's the second-highest by any QB in a season in the Next Gen Stats era, trailing Ryan Tannehill's wildly efficient 2019 season (+13.8% CPOE).
But a difficult test approaches in the Los Angeles Chargers secondary. They're top 10 in NFL Pro defensive efficiency on both intermediate and deep passes, and have allowed a dismal 56.7 passer rating on all downfield throws, second-lowest behind only the Seahawks. They've surrendered 10 touchdowns but nabbed 14 interceptions on such passes, and held opposing QBs to a -8.3% CPOE, worst in the league. At least in terms of completion percentage over expected downfield, this is literally the league's best QB against its best defense. It should be a thrilling matchup.
Pittsburgh's inside run game against the impenetrable Houston front
Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell have quietly become one the league's better running back duos entering the Wild Card Round. And while they might be most recognized for their pass-catching, they've also been highly efficient on inside runs. They pushed Pittsburgh into the top five in NFL Pro's rushing efficiency inside the tackles at the end of the season and recorded 0.06 EPA/carry on such runs in 2025, fourth-most by any team. But most impressively, their 54.3% success rate on inside carries led the entire NFL in 2025, edging out the Broncos (53.2%), Rams (52.5%) and Bills (50.9%).
Yet again, however, this playoff matchup brings a clash of great against great. The Texans defense allowed -0.4 rush yards over expected per carry and -0.21 EPA per carry on inside runs this year, both second-best in the league. Their 40.5% success rate allowed inside the tackles was eighth-lowest and their 0.9 yards allowed before contact per carry was sixth-lowest. And over their current nine-game winning streak, Houston has allowed just 3.2 yards per carry and -94 total rush yards over expected, both the best marks by any defense. Pittsburgh has not been as effective rushing outside the tackles, but they may need to find ways to do so against this Texans front.
