NFL fantasy football: Don't fear starting Luck Week 1

This column is pretty self-explanatory. I take a number and tell you whether the result will be above the number or below it. Yes, it's mainly about fantasy. But this week, it's also about Old Navy, Iron Maiden, and Gunnery Sargeant Hartman. Read on.

2: Number of times I'll say out loud on Sunday "I should have played Andrew Luck." Over. No one's playing him this week because it's the big, bad, Bears defense. And likely because he's your number two QB. But he is this good. And the Colts will be behind. And he'll throw. And throw. Successfully. The Bears defense is very susceptible to the pass, and I wonder how dominant they can be in a division where everyone except for the Vikings throws the football better than 85% of the league. I just have a funny feeling about his debut. And then you'll spend all your free agonizing whether or not to start him in Week 2 against, yes, the Vikings (And yes is your answer).

3: How many free agent moves I'll make before Sunday. Under. I think I'm done at 2. In one league I handcuffed DeMarco Murray with Felix Jones after he went undrafted (waiving Shane Vereen- I can always pick him up later if I want). And I grabbed the Patriots defense so I can start them Week 1 against the Titans rather than having to gamble on the Steelers' defense in Denver.

4: How many NFL-related gaffes for Old Navy this season. Over. We haven't even started yet and already they're fighting the PR battle after incorrectly printing up "Houston Texans- 1961 AFC Champions" retro-t-shirts. Forget for a second that the AFC didn't even exist in 1961, nor that the Texans didn't exist until 2000. Heck, Old Navy didn't start up until 1994. But I think there's a Fact-Checker job open there if you need work.

7 catches for 70 yards: The number Rex Ryan said the Jets would 'sign up for' if that's what Stevie Johnson achieves. Under. Yes, Johnson does fare better against Darrelle Revis and the Jets than anyone else. I asked him at the Super Bowl what his secret was and he said 'just a lot of game film.' (So there you go, Rex, my good deed for the team. See what you can glean from that.) Last season Johnson had a couple of nice games, but the Jets defense wasn't really the JETS DEFENSE like it had been in recent years. They're quicker and more athletic. Don't expect a normal Johnson day on Sunday. If you have a better flex option, take it.

10: How many times I'll recommend starting Malcom Floyd this week. Over. So last week, Michael Fabiano didn't like me drafting Floyd late. I love him as a super-sleeper, he doesn't. Then he bounds into the newsroom today saying "Hey, have you seen what Malcom Floyd's done in his last three games against the Raiders?" 20 catches for 412 yards and 2 TD's in case you didn't have that number readily at-hand. Combine that with his electric finish to the 2011 season and you have a tremendous flex play. Now if only I can get Fabs to not remember the bet we made about whether the Mets or Yankees will wind up with a better record.

20: Number of touches for Cedric Benson against San Francisco. Over. Greg Jennings said Benson will be 'huge' for the Packers offense. Now, it may not happen on Sunday since the 49ers have the best run defense in the league, but don't let that deter you. Benson will be 'huge' this season, and not in the weight department. He's still running with power, and now through gaping holes like he hasn't seen since playing for Texas. He's an intriguing flex right now but he'll be a high end No. 2 RB before long this season.

20: The number of plays Tim Tebow will be on the field for Sunday. Over. I think we have to give the Jets credit that they know what they're doing with their offense. They have too much of a Cheshire Cat grin going on right now. This doesn't mean you play Tebow- he has no fantasy value yet, but it means he's going to take away from every other offensive Jet (and yes, I know you can read that two ways). Shonn Greene is the only Jet worth starting this week- we don't know enough about anyone else getting the football to feel good about.

25: The number of times Adam Rank and I will disagree off-camera about the best 'Iron Maiden' song ever. Under. I don't know why, but when he threw that question out on Twitter a week or so ago I couldn't believe everyone defaulted to "Number of the Beast." (Prowler, Remember Tomorrow, Running Free, Sanctuary, Phantom of the Opera) There's like five songs on their first album alone better than that. I only say the under because eventually I'll grow tired of trying to convince him otherwise. I feel like Lance Armstrong.

50: The number of rushing yards for Maurice-Jones Drew or Rashad Jennings in Week 1. Under. Jacksonville won't start him and how game-ready can he be after just a few days with the team? I know you drafted him in either the 2nd or 3rd round and may not have the depth, but if you have a player you think can get you more than 50 yards from put him in. Jennings seems like a nice option, but are they going to give him the football enough to warrant you starting him over players you drafted in the first few rounds? Probably not.

100: The total fantasy points to come out of the Chargers-Raiders tilt on Monday Night Football. Over. I can't stress it enough- play every QB and WR you have on these rosters as long as you're not benching Calvin Johnson for Robert Meachem, if you get what I'm saying. With no Ryan Mathews, San Diego will throw it all night long. It'll be Philip Rivers, Floyd, Meachem and Antonio Gates getting you a half-century mark of production. And even with Darren McFadden rolling through the Chargers 'D, Carson Palmer will have a healthy night chucking it- especially to Darrius Heyward-Bey, who will continue his semi-breakout from a year ago.

250: The number of stories on NFL.com the week leading up to Sunday where the headline involves a player who says 'I'm playing' Week 1. Over. Let's see, Jason Witten, Hakeem Nicks early on in the week and now Brian Urlacher and Trent Richardson so far, and there's still time before 1pmET Sunday. Look, you drafted Richardson to be an every-week starter for you. If he plays for them, he plays for you - which is one of my favorite fantasy sayings of all time. I would make a good Fantasy Drill Sargeant. I would dress like the guy from 'Full Metal Jacket' every day.

Jason Smith hosts NFL Fantasy Live on the NFL Network and writes fantasy and other pith for nfl.com. Talk to him on Twitter @howaboutafresca, and listen to his Fantasy Podcast with Michael Fabiano and Elliot Harrison every week on nfl.com. He only asks you never bring up when the Jets play poorly.

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