The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is in the books, and the weekend delivered exactly what January football promises: drama, tension, big moments, and crushing consequences.
Every team knew the stakes. Win, and you're in the final four. Lose, and you're done—no more meaningful snaps until September.
As I watched these games unfold, one thing kept jumping out at me: turnovers.
Protecting the football matters all season, of course. But in the playoffs, it becomes unforgiving. And this weekend, we saw promising campaigns unravel in a hurry because teams simply couldn't hold onto the ball.
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills turned it over five times in their overtime loss to Denver. CJ Stroud threw four interceptions as the Houston Texans fell to the New England Patriots. And as brilliant as Caleb Williams was for the Chicago Bears, his three interceptions - including the overtime pick - set up the Los Angeles Rams' winning points with the season on the line.
The numbers underline just how decisive this is. In the Super Bowl era, teams that win the turnover battle in the playoffs have won 80 percent of the time. That's not a trend - that's a rule.
Turnovers are the great equaliser. They flip momentum, silence stadiums, and end seasons.
And what's striking is how frequent they've been. Heading into Sunday, playoff games were averaging 3.4 turnovers per contest, a figure that only climbed as the weekend went on.
Why? Part of it is philosophy. Quarterbacks are handling the ball more. Teams are going for it on fourth down. Coaches are pushing the margins. And these quarterbacks—many of whom were dominant at every level before the NFL—have supreme confidence. Sometimes, too much confidence.
Because in this league, defenders are elite. They're fast, disciplined, and very well paid. And when you give them chances, they punish you.
So, for me, turnovers were the defining story of the divisional round. And if this trend continues, they'll remain one of the biggest factors shaping the rest of the 2025 postseason.
In January, talent gets you here. But ball security is what keeps you alive.
Who's Hot…
The Seattle Seahawks… For much of this season, it's felt like the race to Super Bowl 60 has been completely wide open. A league without a clear frontrunner. A postseason where almost anyone could make a case. But now that we're down to the final four, I think that's changed. Right now, there is a clear favourite—and it's the Seattle Seahawks. They were utterly dominant on both sides of the ball in Saturday's 41–6 dismantling of the San Francisco 49ers. This wasn't just a win. It was a statement. Seattle rushed for 175 yards and three touchdowns, with Kenneth Walker setting the tone. They scored on special teams. They overwhelmed San Francisco defensively. And perhaps most importantly, Sam Darnold played exactly the kind of game that wins championships in January. He didn't light up the stat sheet - 124 passing yards and one touchdown - but he protected the football. No interceptions. No reckless decisions. No season-ending mistakes. And at this time of year, that matters more than anything. This Seahawks defense is starting to look Legion of Boom–like. Fast. Physical. Disciplined. Relentless. They swarm to the ball, they hit with intent, and they suffocate opponents. And the scale of this win shouldn't be overlooked. It was Seattle's most dominant playoff performance since Super Bowl 48, when they demolished the Denver Broncos 43–8 in New York. That team lifted the Lombardi Trophy. This one? It's starting to look like it believes it can do the same.
The New England Patriots' Defense… All week long, the New England Patriots heard about the Houston Texans—and their number one-ranked defense—rolling into Foxboro on Sunday. By the end of the game, it was the Patriots' defense that had delivered the message. New England picked off CJ Stroud four times, sacked him on three occasions, and powered a 28–16 victory that flipped the narrative on its head. This was exactly what head coach Mike Vrabel wanted to see. A response. His team standing up in the toughest of circumstances, proving a point, and making people sit up and take notice of what they can do on that side of the ball. The Patriots may not have a single standout defensive superstar, but they are relentless as a collective. They play with discipline, physicality, and trust - and on Sunday, that unit completely overwhelmed a Texans team that spiralled into self-destruction. It was playoff football at its most unforgiving. Mistakes were punished. Momentum was seized. And New England never let Houston breathe, despite having turnover issues of their own on offense. And now, the Patriots are back on the biggest stage in the conference—the AFC Championship Game—for the 16th time in franchise history. But this one is different. It's the first time they've reached this point since the 1996 campaign without Bill Belichick or Tom Brady leading the way. A new era. A familiar destination. And a reminder that in New England, defense still travels in January.
The Los Angeles Rams' Secondary… This was supposed to be the area of weakness for the Rams, but this is why they play the games. LA's defensive backs pounced for three interceptions of Caleb Williams, including Kamren Curl's vital pick in overtime that set up the winning points in a 20-17 win for Sean McVay's road warriors. It was a reminder that even overlooked units can rise up in the playoffs and deliver a sudden knockout blow to what appears to be a more gifted opponent in that area of the game.
Who's Not…
The Buffalo Bills… The Bills outgained the Denver Broncos by 100 yards on Saturday night but still lost the game and are now reflecting at home while the remaining four teams power towards Super Bowl 60. The reason? Five turnovers killed the Bills, but they also saw every close officiating call land on the side of the Broncos in the game's crucial moments. Quarterback Josh Allen took the blame for the loss and said he let his team down. Some of that is true and he was careless with the football against a tough Denver defense, especially on one run late in the first half that gifted Denver three points they should never have scored. There was no way Allen was scoring on that play with so little time on the clock so that's on him. But head coach Sean McDermott should never have called a play at all. Kneel down and get to halftime. And those points were crucial when you consider Denver won the game 33-30 in overtime. Now, Buffalo need to figure out how to keep Allen's Super Bowl window open and get more around him. In a playoff field without Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, it feels like Allen and the Bills missed a golden opportunity this year.
Jarrett Stidham… With Bo Nix breaking his ankle late in Saturday's win over the Buffalo Bills, the Denver Broncos are now scrambling to prepare Jarrett Stidham for AFC Championship Game duty against the New England Patriots. And Stidham is ice cold—through no fault of his own. He's the backup quarterback. He hasn't been needed in Denver this season. He hasn't thrown a regular-season pass in two years. In fact, his only action all year came back in October, and it was a single play: a quarterback kneel-down. So now the question becomes a fascinating one: Can Sean Payton coax enough out of a rarely used passer to get Denver to the Super Bowl? Because we've seen this movie before. Ten years ago, Peyton Manning was clearly past his best, and the Broncos still went on to win Super Bowl 50. They did it by beating New England in the AFC Championship Game, powered not by quarterback brilliance, but by a ferocious pass rush and a dominant defense. That's the blueprint again. Stidham doesn't need to be spectacular. He needs to be careful. He needs to manage the moment. And he needs a defense that can control the game, flip field position, and make life miserable for the opposing quarterback. If Denver are going to reach Super Bowl 60, it won't be because of Stidham's arm—it'll be because the rest of the team drags the game into a fight. So, the question now is simple, and compelling: Can the Broncos do it again? Can history repeat itself? We're about to find out.
The Fast Five…
- Caleb Williams' game-tying fourth-down touchdown pass to Cole Kmet was one of the greatest throws in NFL playoff history. But it might not get remembered that way in a losing cause. I hope it stands the test of time. It was a rare piece of brilliance. And the stats telling us it was a 14-yard touchdown pass are misleading. Williams backed up 26 yards behind the line of scrimmage before launching a bullet that travelled more than 51 yards through the air. Stunning. The future is bright in Chicago.
- The Los Angeles Rams do not quite look themselves and I wonder if the finger injury suffered by quarterback Matthew Stafford is a genuine issue. He threw 46 touchdown passes in the regular season and another three in the Wild Card round. He did not throw a single scoring strike on Sunday night. The Rams are still alive, but their mid-season form – when they looked like the NFL's best team – has deserted them at the worst possible time.
- I think it's fair for the Houston Texans to expect more from quarterback CJ Stroud. He imploded in dramatic and painful fashion in Sunday's loss to New England. Outside of a brilliant first season, Stroud has been sub-par for the last two years. He faces a big 2026 campaign when a lot of questions surrounding his game will need to be answered.
- Drake Maye did not have the cleanest of games in the snow and ice of New England on Sunday. He fumbled four times, losing two of them, and also threw an interception. But he did throw three touchdown passes, including a stunner to Kayshon Boutte just as Houston had crawled back to within five points. Maye delivered in the pressure-packed moment and those final points in the game broke the Texans' back.
- Their loss in Seattle on Saturday night was so one-sided and brutal that it's almost easy to forget the San Francisco 49ers were a part of this Divisional Round weekend. It was one battle too far for a team totally decimated by injuries. But the 49ers players and coaches can hold their heads high – to win 13 games in such an injury-hit campaign is a credit to the team, starting with head coach Kyle Shanahan.
Fact of the Week
The Buffalo Bills are the third team all-time to score at least 30 points with zero punts in a playoff loss. The others were the New England Patriots (lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 52) and the Kansas City Chiefs, who lost to the Indianapolis Colts in the 2003 Divisional Round. One major reason? Buffalo committed a season-high five turnovers.
Final Thought…
And then there were four. The New England Patriots will visit the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game and the Seattle Seahawks will host the Los Angeles Rams over in the NFC. There are compelling stories still to be written everywhere you look. Will Jarrett Stidham defy the odds and take Denver to the Super Bowl? Or will New England provide a familiar feel to proceedings, albeit with a new head coach and quarterback. What about Sam Darnold? He was ridden out of New York, washed up in Carolina, hidden on the bench in San Francisco and not wanted in Minnesota. Can he be a Super Bowl champion? Or will Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford run it back one more time? The 2025 NFL season has, at times, read like a novel. But this book is not ready to be sent to the printers just yet.
